Cyrille Jubert https://goldbroker.com/author/cyrille-jubert Obviously, such a scenario may seem completely unrealistic, and attempting to replicate it is strongly discouraged. However, it remains worthwhile to take a step back and analyze the dynamics at play in the markets. Refinery closures Starting in 2020, numerous oil companies closed a large number of refineries, either temporarily or permanently, in the United States, Australia, and Europe (France, the United Kingdom, Norway, Finland, Denmark, the Netherlands, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Croatia, Poland, and Israel). These closures created an artificial shortage of refined petroleum products (gasoline, heating oil, and kerosene), leading to a sustained increase in pump prices worldwide. Since these facilities cannot be brought back online quickly, these price pressures have become entrenched. In November 2021, at COP26 in Glasgow, the Financial Alliance for Net Zero was launched. All the major banks and insurance companies of the G7 pledged to cease financing the exploratio... Tue, 28 Apr 2026 05:30:09 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/crazy-trader-bets-silver-1000-dollars-end-2026-3704 You may recall the period following the 2008 systemic crash and the attempts to implement the Dodd-Frank rules to regulate banks. At the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission), the regulator of commodity futures markets, a team of "incorruptibles" was assembled. The task was particularly difficult: a CFTC official earned on average barely more than $3,000, and at best $4,000, while facing extremely powerful banks that regularly manipulated the precious metals market. These banks amassed millions of dollars and didn't hesitate to try to influence those who sought to obstruct them. At the time, Bart Chilton, one of the five commissioners of the CFTC, made commendable efforts to expose price manipulation by these dominant banks acting in concert. He unfortunately passed away following an illness. Under his authority, twenty prosecutors were tasked with enforcing the law. As of today, none remain; the last one resigned on Monday, February 23. COMEX is o... Tue, 17 Mar 2026 06:30:10 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/end-western-hegemony-over-price-gold-silver-3682 On Thursday in New York, gold opened at $5,630. The following day, it hit a low of $4,700, a difference of nearly $1,000 in just 24 hours. Meanwhile, in Shanghai, physical gold closed at $5,209. How can we explain such price discrepancies between different markets? And above all, how can we justify such day-to-day volatility? The price of silver plummeted by 33% in a single session in New York. A true market anomaly, especially since the CME’ rule 589 had just limited price fluctuations, both upward and downward. Gigantic manipulation by margin call Since December 12, the CME has been steadily increasing margin requirements, meaning the minimum deposit required to trade a contract. For silver, margins were $11,500, representing only 3.7% of the contract value at the time, with silver trading at around $62 an ounce. They were subsequently raised to $18,000, then $22,000, and finally $32,500. On January 12, the CME abandoned the fixed margin system in favor of a p... Mon, 02 Feb 2026 12:36:44 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/silver-dislocation-paper-and-physical-markets-3668 I have been studying the silver market for more than 15 years, day after day. The text below blends established facts with hypotheses that today appear increasingly credible. After the Nixon–Mao meeting in 1972, China reopened its economy and began its modernization. Among the major transformations, it built ultramodern ore ports and refineries equipped with the most advanced technologies. Thanks to a unique combination of extremely low labor costs and cutting-edge facilities, China very quickly offered unbeatable prices for processing ore from world mines into metal. By the late 1990s, Chinese refineries were producing nearly 80% of the world’s silver. Even today, they are believed to account for between 65% and 70% of that production. In 1950, the U.S. Treasury still held nearly 2,000 million ounces (Moz) of silver. Over the decades, much of this stock was released onto the markets in an attempt to contain the price of a metal that had served for centuries as the glo... Tue, 20 Jan 2026 06:20:35 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/china-absolute-master-silver-market-3660 For several months now, I've been explaining that Chinese banks buy silver cheaply in New York and London, only to resell it in Shanghai, where it trades at a much higher price. But some irresponsible financiers have done the exact opposite: they've sold silver "naked short » in Shanghai before buying back the same amount, much cheaper, in London or New York. Now, at COMEX, instead of making a physical delivery, they either compensate you in cash or give you an EFP (Exchange for Physical), leaving it to the LBMA to deliver the requested metal. But remember that in October, London was unable to deliver 1,000 tons of silver to India. The market has been completely frozen. COMEX was unable to fulfill a massive demand for delivery of 7,330 of 5,000-ounces contracts, submitted in one block on the last day of trading, November 30. It took 10 hours of negotiations for the buyer to agree to settle 6,816 contracts in cash, at a premium of $65 million. The deman... Wed, 31 Dec 2025 17:35:10 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/silver-a-broken-market-before-a-reset-3652 This is the increase that traders were anticipating for Silver in February 2026 through their "CALL" positions on Monday 8/12: There were only 25 contracts positioned for a rise to $73. There were 152 targeting $75. This has to be compared to 4,845 contracts anticipating $80, and 4,277 contracts already targeting $85 per ounce of silver. As a reminder, the Fibonacci sequence is a sequence of integers where each term is the sum of the two preceding terms. It begins with 0. The first ten digits are: 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34. The sequence continues with: 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377, 610, 987, 1597, 2584, 4181, 6765, 10946. If we compare the silver price to the Fibonacci spiral: Prices stagnated around the $13 level for 60 months. They were then stuck around the $21 support level for 45 months. Then they climbed to the $34 resistance level over a period of 15 months. The move towards the $55 resistance level, however, lasted only 5... Tue, 16 Dec 2025 06:17:03 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/silver-fibonacci-hyperinflation-3645 The Context It seems necessary to first recall the letter from the CME, COMEX's parent company, sent in 2021 to the New York Stock Exchange regulator, the CFTC. It stated that official silver stocks considered "eligible" for COMEX trading should be reduced by 50% because, although stored in CME-approved warehouses, they have no actual connection to the market itself. As a reminder, since March 2022, Russian gold and silver bars have been banned from trading in both London and New York. At the time, SLV held 39,451 1,000-ounce Russian silver bars, totaling 39.4 million ounces worth approximately $1 billion, which could not be sold. A similar search could be conducted at PSLV, ZKB, JPM, HSBC, or even in the COMEX and London bullion market inventories. Have the authorities reversed course? On October 8, 2025, an order for 1,000 tons of silver placed by India triggered an immediate freeze in the London silver market. Silver lease rates instantly skyrocketed... Tue, 02 Dec 2025 06:30:38 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/silver-perfectly-organized-short-squeeze-3640 Late Friday morning, October 10th, I received a phone call from a friend who had worked her entire career in a subsidiary of a major precious metals group. This friend received an email Friday morning from her former employer asking her to suspend all silver purchases, regardless of quantity. Surprised by such a directive — a first to her knowledge — she immediately contacted the group's headquarters for confirmation and explanations. By Friday morning, the London Lease Rates for silver had crossed the exceptional threshold of 125% — UNPRECEDENTED! When a trader of this group buys metal, it is leased at the official London Lease Rates until it is resold. My friend then contacted her counterparts in the market: they had all received a similar order to suspend their silver purchases at the same time on Friday. I had confirmation of this by surfing on internet: other refiners had also suspended all silver purchases. The market was therefore completely frozen. N... Wed, 15 Oct 2025 05:20:39 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/silver-reset-underway-frozen-market-3615 On June 17, 2025, documents relating to the decisions of a G7 meeting were made public (European Commission, Japan, Canada, Reuters, etc.). This meeting, held in Canada on Monday, June 16, resulted in the implementation of measures aimed at stimulating the production of rare earths and strategic minerals, supporting the development of the mining companies concerned, improving their profitability, and, consequently, facilitating their financing. Donald Trump had already anticipated these guidelines in his "Executive Orders" of March 20, 2025. In my June 10, 2025 article, I detailed the cycles of the mining industry. In recent years, many mines specializing in the extraction of pure silver have been forced to close due to declining metal content in the ore and insufficient profitability. Investors familiar with the sector will know that mining stock prices have been even more severely battered than silver bullion, as this chart from First Majestic illustrates.... Wed, 01 Oct 2025 05:03:43 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/gold-silver-reset-concerted-revaluation-strategic-minerals-3607 On May 1, the Federal Reserve published a financial accounting manual for regional banks in the Fed System — available for download here. Starting on page 7, note that the very first line refers to the Gold Certificate Account: "The Secretary of the Treasury is authorized to issue gold certificates to the Reserve Banks to monetize gold held by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (Treasury). At any time, Treasury may reacquire the gold certificates by demonetizing the gold. Treasury maintains an account with the Board of Governors entitled “Gold certificate fund — Board of Governors of the FR System.” When the Treasury monetizes gold, it credits this account in return for deposit credit at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY). When demonetizing gold, Treasury decreases the account and authorizes the FRBNY to charge its deposit account. The offsetting entry in each case on the FRBNY’s books is made to the Gold Certificate account and the U.S. Treasu... Mon, 15 Sep 2025 05:14:12 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/gold-soon-revalued-presidential-decree-3597 Remember the cycles of the mining industry. For multiple reasons, the price of extracted ore tends to fall, particularly due to competition. Thus, as a mine is operated, the metal content generally decreases, reducing its profitability until the company decides to close it. There are therefore periods during which the extraction of a particular metal is no longer profitable, leading to a sharp drop in production, and then, gradually, a shortage. For precious metals, to mask the erosion of the purchasing power of currencies, prices were long tightly regulated, first by specialized administrations, then by groups of central banks, such as the "London Gold Pool" until 1967. Subsequently, a banking Cartel continued to manipulate the prices of gold and silver through various means. Among these, COMEX futures contracts were a major tool, allowing traders to trade huge volumes of metals without ever demanding delivery. Since 2004, this Cartel has been implementing... Mon, 14 Jul 2025 05:33:49 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/china-revaluation-precious-metals-3565 Due to global competition, mineral prices — regardless of the type of commodity — tend to decline over time. There comes a time when the operation of a mine becomes economically unprofitable due to low prices. Small firms, unable to withstand this pressure, are closed down or acquired by competitors with greater financial resources, who will also end up ceasing down operations if market conditions do not improve. This dynamic results in a period of consolidation within the mining sector, followed by a gradual reduction in the production of the affected mineral. Until the industry discovers a new use for this ore, generating a new demand. However, due to the prior phase of declining supply, the market is now in a situation of shortage and manufacturers must compete on prices to obtain the ore they need. In the long run, this price surge captures the interest of investors, who recognize a profitable opportunity and choose to finance the reopening of previously closed mine... Tue, 10 Jun 2025 05:39:48 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/mining-industry-cycles-focus-physical-metals-3553 On July 1, 2025, U.S. banks and financial institutions will be subject to the Basel III NSFR rules. For the gold market, which is of interest to us here, this means that unencumbered physical gold in the capital of a bank will be considered a guarantee of financial solidity. Conversely, pledged gold, or gold held in the form of futures contracts and paper gold such as ETFs, will be considered a speculative product, and therefore as a risk for the banking institution. This deadline alone explains the gold rush observed in the United States since the beginning of the year. Between December 2024 and March 2025, 25.4 million ounces (Moz) of gold, or 720 tonnes, were delivered to COMEX warehouses. A few years ago, the COMEX was barely delivering around 40 tonnes per year. Officially, the media attribute this gold rush to a panic fear of tariffs — Donald Trump's famous "tariffs." But this explanation is far removed from reality. It's simply more conveni... Tue, 22 Apr 2025 05:46:58 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/the-foretold-death-paper-gold-3528 A few days ago, one of the world’s largest refineries informed its customers that the London warehouses were empty and that the London gold market was dry of liquidity. Confirmation last Wednesday: The Bank of England published the information that it would be able to deliver the gold currently awaiting delivery only in 4 to 8 weeks. Background Donald Trump had announced, even before his election, his intention to impose customs tariffs on all imports. Even without specifics on this subject, many investors saw this as an inevitable increase in the price of precious metals. Since the announcement of Trump’s victory, the COMEX has been facing exceptionally high Gold delivery demands.This required a veritable airlift to transfer 393 tonnes of gold from the LBMA’s London warehouses to the COMEX vaults in New York, bringing the New York gold stocks to 926 tonnes. This movement emptied the “liquidity” available in gold in the Bank of England’s vaults. Default For years,... Mon, 03 Feb 2025 12:02:35 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/london-gold-market-defaults-physical-gold-deliveries-3491 As soon as a chart appears, some people close like an oyster, without trying to grasp its meaning. However, once you understand the basics, such as the simple principle that B + A = BA, it becomes not only accessible, but also fun. To better illustrate, let's take the example of a daily candle. A green candle indicates that, at the close of the market, the price was higher than the opening. The part colored in green is the body of the candle. The thin black lines located above or below the body are called wicks. The lower wick indicates that the price has fallen below the opening level for the day, while the upper wick indicates that the price has risen above the closing level for the day: A red candle indicates that the market closed below its opening price: Prices can be analyzed on different time frames: one minute, one hour, one day, one week, one month, one quarter or even one year. The general principle stated above remains the same. All... Wed, 11 Dec 2024 06:45:57 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/silver-december-battle-3463 For those uninitiated in finance, a "short squeeze" refers to a situation where an individual or legal entity sells an asset in the future without owning it first, in the hope of buying it back later at a lower price in order to make a profit. However, if the price of this asset increases instead of falling as expected, this individual or legal entity is forced to buy it quickly to honor the delivery of their forward sale. This hasty buying movement then contributes to accentuating the rise in prices. Isn't this precisely what gold prices have been reflecting for several months? The world's main gold market is the London Bullion Market, where 18.6 million ounces of gold are traded daily. It is an over-the-counter market between members of the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), managed by 11 major banks considered to be the market makers for the spot market. Some of these banks also manage the forward market and the options market.... Mon, 28 Oct 2024 06:32:24 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/massive-short-squeeze-gold-3440 After breaking through the $2,074 resistance that held it back for four years, the price of gold seems to have been rising uninterruptedly since March. All my readers, week after week, ask me the following question: is gold about to go back down? My answer is "probably. It would be normal for it to consolidate part of its rise before going higher. It would be rather abnormal if that did not happen." There was a slight consolidation in April, followed by another in May, then a stabilization phase in June after new all-time highs. However, the rise resumed in July and continued in August and September, with records broken each month. Amazing! How can we explain this exceptional rise in gold? On September 4, 2024, Tass reported that from August 7 to September 5, the Russian Finance Ministry had allocated $27 million to buy gold, and from September 6 to October 4, it would allocate another $1.9 billion to acquire gold. This information could partly explain th... Wed, 25 Sep 2024 05:36:13 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/what-is-driving-gold-price-up-3421 China is the world's factory and largely dominates the photovoltaic panels market, an industry that consumes a lot of silver. From January to May 2024, 1,663 tonnes of silver were delivered to the Shanghai markets (SGE and SFE), and analysts expect 3,992 tonnes to be delivered during this year. While SFE stocks stood at 3,200 tonnes in January 2021, they fell to 684 tonnes on June 20, 2024: This strong industrial demand caused a rise in silver prices: The SFE over-the-counter market is a physical market strictly reserved for industrial buyers and suppliers. Within the SFE, this OTC market facilitates the link between futures contracts and end-users. The largest buyer in the silver-related industry is Lequing Industrial Park in Zhejiang, with an annual demand of 2,000 tons. Leqing Jinbang Co is responsible for supplying the metal and has a silver warehouse that supplies more than 600 companies. Xinhu Ruifeng Co, its own metal supplier, plays an ac... Tue, 25 Jun 2024 08:49:03 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/acceleration-silver-price-rise-short-term-3371 Several events are likely to trigger a significant increase in precious metals prices in the near future. As I have already pointed out in previous articles, the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), to be announced on the evening of May 1, will trigger a historic bullish rally in gold, oil and, above all, silver. This rally should continue throughout May, June and July, before probably pausing until the end of October. What do we know? At the beginning of 2024, the M2 money supply stood at $20.92 trillion. Over the course of 2024, nearly $10 trillion in Treasury bonds will mature, representing almost 30% of the U.S. debt. The US government is recording a quarterly deficit of $1 trillion. Consequently, by the end of 2024, the Fed will need to create nearly $13 trillion, increasing the money supply to new historical levels. From a mathematical point of view, the value of the dollar expressed in ounces of gold will fall sharply, and the currency's purch... Mon, 22 Apr 2024 05:46:24 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/gold-silver-oil-strong-rise-expected-may-june-july-3332 Gold has just broken all its historical records, but we will certainly experience a consolidation phase before the real takeoff. I recommend that you read this article to the end. First, let's talk about the most prominent American index: the S&P 500. It too is at its all-time high, not because the American economy is at its best in the last 50 or 100 years, but rather because the performance of the stock markets depends on the money supply injected by central banks. Since 2009, the S&P 500 has risen in parallel with monetary injections from the Federal Reserve. Hyperinflation of the money supply generated a rapid rise in stock market indices. In recent months, speeches discussing the Fed's monetary policy have repeatedly suggested that interest rates would fall in March. This implied that companies would once again be able to borrow cheaply to refinance their debts and continue to buy back their own shares, hence the continued bullish rally o... Sun, 10 Mar 2024 22:56:10 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/gold-and-silver-soon-the-start-of-a-historic-rally-3303