Laurent Maurel https://goldbroker.com/author/laurent-maurel Oil stocks in Cushing, Oklahoma, fell this week to just 21.6 million barrels, barely 1.6 million barrels above the operational threshold generally estimated at around 20 million. At the current rate of drawdowns, this level could be reached within the next two weeks: For most investors, this figure probably doesn’t mean much. After all, the United States still has hundreds of millions of barrels of oil scattered across the country. So why are a few million barrels stored in Oklahoma attracting so much attention? The answer is that Cushing is not just an ordinary oil storage facility. It serves as the primary physical delivery point for the WTI contract, the benchmark for U.S. crude oil. In practice, Cushing plays a role comparable to that of a clearinghouse in the banking system: it isn’t necessarily where the majority of the oil is located, but it is one of the points where the daily balance between buyers and sellers is struck. More importantly, when Cushing... Fri, 12 Jun 2026 05:30:18 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/gold-oil-world-draws-reserves-3718 For several weeks now, U.S. stock indices have shown remarkable resilience. Despite a major energy crisis, growing geopolitical tensions, rising sovereign bond yields, and an increasingly unstable macroeconomic environment, equity markets remain near their highs. At first glance, this resilience could be interpreted as a sign of confidence. However, when you look beneath the surface, the message sent by the market is much more ambiguous. Sector performance figures for the past three months are particularly revealing: The technology sector is up more than 35%, far outpacing all other sectors. In contrast, basic materials are down, utilities are underperforming significantly, defensive consumer goods are being shunned, and even the energy sector — despite the most significant global oil disruption in decades — is struggling to attract capital inflows. This divergence warrants closer examination. Because a market that believes in a sustained acceleration of glo... Fri, 05 Jun 2026 05:28:41 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/gold-ai-cycle-comes-to-end-3716 Major speculative bubbles often follow a remarkably similar psychological and financial pattern. It all begins with a genuine innovation that profoundly transforms the economy: the Internet in the 1990s, securitized real estate in the 2000s, and today, artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure. This is followed by a phase of acceleration in which the market gradually ceases to take physical, operational, or financial constraints into account. Valuations expand, capital becomes abundant, and investors eventually come to believe that future growth justifies virtually any current price. This is precisely the dynamic currently reflected in assets such as the Korean KOSPI or Micron Technology. The KOSPI, historically highly correlated with the global semiconductor and memory cycle, is entering a near-parabolic phase, driven by the euphoria surrounding AI, data centers, and demand for HBM. For its part, Micron has emerged as one of the most striking symbols... Fri, 29 May 2026 05:30:48 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/when-input-costs-skyrocket-bubbles-burst-gold-makes-comeback-3714 For several weeks now, the market has been behaving as if everything is finally going to “work out.” And this is no longer just the isolated view of a few sell-side strategists: it has now become a widely held consensus among global investors. A recent study by Bank of America Global Research clearly illustrates this: in May, global fund managers made the largest monthly increase in their equity allocation in decades. Market sentiment is now extremely bullish and reflects a prevailing view: the current energy and geopolitical crisis will remain contained, the Strait of Hormuz will reopen quickly, and central banks will eventually stabilize the situation. The latest Fund Manager Survey shows just how extreme this bullish consensus has become. In May, global fund managers made the largest monthly increase in equity allocation ever recorded, raising their net overweight position from +13% to +50%. At the same time, cash levels fell to 3.9%, officially triggering... Fri, 22 May 2026 05:30:18 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/oil-bonds-cracks-bullish-consensus-3712 While equity investors continue to celebrate AI, share buybacks, and narratives of a soft landing in a frenzy that increasingly resembles the excesses of a late-cycle environment, the bond market has been sending a radically different message for several weeks now. And historically, it is always fixed income that ultimately sets the tone for the rest of the financial system. Something unusual is happening: despite an objectively risk-off geopolitical environment, risky assets continue to outperform while bond markets are quietly deteriorating in the background. Equity volatility, as measured by the VIX, fell rapidly after the initial shock in the Middle East, but sovereign yields continued to climb. The implicit message from the bond market is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. Fixed-income investors are beginning to come to terms with a much more uncomfortable reality: skyrocketing budget deficits, energy-driven inflationary pressures, massive refinancing, gr... Thu, 14 May 2026 05:30:47 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/resurgence-sovereign-risk-sets-stage-next-gold-cycle-3710 The market continues to celebrate AI as a virtually limitless technological revolution. Yet behind the stock market records set by American hyperscalers may lie one of the largest infrastructure spending cycles in modern history — with considerable risks to future returns on invested capital. The debate is no longer merely technological. It is now becoming an energy, industrial, financial, and even macroeconomic issue. For years, investors have valued tech giants as ultra-scalable software platforms: low marginal costs, high margins, and virtually infinite growth. But generative AI is gradually breaking this model. Large language models require massive amounts of GPUs, electricity, cooling, data centers, and networks. The more sophisticated the models become, the more compute consumption skyrockets. The major bullish scenario (“bull case”) on which part of the artificial intelligence sector’s valuation now rests is no longer simply the idea that more people will use c... Fri, 08 May 2026 07:39:38 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/ai-capex-illusion-growth-why-gold-is-becoming-strategic-again-3709 The silver market is shifting into a much tighter situation than it appears at first glance. Behind the sometimes erratic fluctuations in futures prices, the physical market continues to tighten — slowly but surely. Since 2021, nearly 762 million ounces have been drawn from global inventories. This erosion is by no means a cyclical phenomenon: it reflects a structural imbalance that is becoming entrenched over time. The year 2026 is expected to mark a sixth consecutive deficit, with an anticipated shortfall of 46.3 million ounces — a 15% increase year-over-year. In other words, the market consistently consumes more than it produces — and this trend persists. This point is fundamental: unlike gold, silver is primarily a byproduct. The key point — often underestimated — lies in the very nature of its production chain: indirect, fragmented… and dependent on a less visible yet critical link: sulfur. In most cases, silver is not mined for its own sake. It is reco... Fri, 01 May 2026 05:30:23 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/silver-heading-toward-silent-supply-crisis-3705 The latest NYMEX delivery data sends an extremely clear signal: the paper market is starting to crack. Specifically, only about 3,000 WTI contracts maturing in May 2026 will be delivered, compared to a historical average of nearly 90,000. To a novice observer, this may seem like a technical detail, but the implications are significant. A crude oil futures contract is, in theory, a binding commitment: to deliver crude oil or take delivery of it at maturity. Under normal circumstances, a significant portion of contracts reach this stage, ensuring that futures prices remain tied to physical reality. But today, that link is weakening. Market participants are exiting en masse before expiration — not out of opportunism, but because they refuse to assume the risk of delivery in a market that has become too uncertain. In other words, the market continues to display a price… but fewer and fewer participants are willing to honor it physically. For those who have followe... Fri, 24 Apr 2026 05:30:37 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/oil-no-longer-prices-gold-becomes-benchmark-3702 At first glance, the latest inflation figures suggest a resurgence of inflationary pressure. Producer prices rose by 0.5% over the month, bringing the annual rate to 4.0%. Against an already tense backdrop in the energy sector, figures like these are enough to fuel the narrative that inflation is on the rise again. But here again, the reality is more nuanced — and even more troubling. First, these figures actually fell short of market expectations. The consensus forecast had predicted a monthly increase of +1.1%, more than double the reported figure. Year-over-year, prices rose by +4.0%, an increase, but well below the expected +4.6%. Even more telling, core inflation (excluding food and energy) rose by only +0.1% over the month, compared to the anticipated +0.4%, bringing the annual rate down to +3.8%. In other words, the feared inflationary shock — particularly linked to geopolitical tensions and energy — has not yet fully materialized in the aggregate data.... Fri, 17 Apr 2026 05:15:17 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/return-stagflation-propelling-gold-into-new-era-3700 The oil market is currently focusing on the wrong metrics. As is often the case during periods of transition, attention is centered on visible volumes — the so-called “lost barrels” — while the true disruptive factor lies elsewhere, far more insidious: time. As long as the disruption is perceived as short-lived, the system remains stable. Prices adjust, flows reorganize, and market participants bide their time. But as soon as the outlook becomes unclear, and the duration of the disruption ceases to be manageable, the nature of the problem changes. We are no longer talking about a tight market, but about a system that is beginning to crack. Last night, in fact, gave the market the opposite illusion. In just a few hours, oil prices plummeted by nearly 20%, triggered by a political sequence — a message from Trump referring to “constructive” discussions, followed by a verbal agreement for a 15-day ceasefire. The market immediately interpreted this as a de-escalatio... Fri, 10 Apr 2026 05:15:28 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/silver-oil-abrupt-return-to-reality-3698 The oil market is entering a phase where volatility is no longer a mere hiccup but a direct consequence of its structure. Recent price movements — both sharp and contradictory — do not reflect a linear improvement or deterioration in fundamentals, but rather a growing inability of prices to simultaneously reflect both physical realities and financial dynamics. On one hand, the physical market is sending signals of tension rarely seen before. The spread between spot Brent and futures contracts — the Dated-to-Frontline spread — has skyrocketed, indicating that buyers are willing to pay a significant premium to secure oil available here and now. This physical premium, which is approaching the extreme levels seen during previous energy crises, reflects a simple reality: oil exists on paper, but it is becoming difficult to obtain in the real world. This tension is consistent with the documented deterioration of energy infrastructure in the Middle East. More than fo... Fri, 03 Apr 2026 07:10:53 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/oil-unreadable-gold-unavoidable-3693 The crack is no longer theoretical; it is becoming a reality — and, as is often the case, the markets are looking the other way. Apollo Global Management has just capped redemptions on one of its main private credit funds, after redemption requests exceeded 11% of assets under management. In practical terms, investors are only recovering about 45% of the amounts requested. The remainder remains frozen, deferred, or suspended within a structure that was previously presented as a relatively liquid alternative to traditional credit. The trend is spreading. Ares Management has in turn limited redemptions on a $10.7 billion fund, according to the Financial Times. Cliffwater is facing 14% in redemption requests and is capping them at 7%. Morgan Stanley is receiving 10.9% and capping redemptions at 5%. BlackRock, at 9.3%, is also capped at 5%. Everywhere, the same pattern is emerging: outflows exceeding actual liquidity capacity. And as liquidity dries up, credit quality is... Fri, 27 Mar 2026 06:15:38 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/latent-bank-run-private-credit-forced-sales-gold-3691 Warning signs are piling up, but the markets continue to ignore what is unfolding deep within the global supply chain. The breaking point now lies in the Middle East. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global energy trade, has deteriorated sharply. It is now part of a widespread military escalation that directly affects critical infrastructure. The island of Kharg — the logistical hub of Iranian oil exports — has been bombed. This is far from a minor incident. Kharg accounts for between 85% and 95% of Iranian crude exports, making it a true single point of transit for the entire national production. The island is connected by pipeline to most major onshore and offshore fields and has infrastructure capable of simultaneously loading several supertankers in deep water — an advantage the rest of Iran’s coastline lacks. In other words, Kharg is not merely a strategic infrastructure: it is a true single point of failure in the energy system. Signif... Thu, 19 Mar 2026 06:15:37 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/gold-accumulating-energy-market-neutralizing-real-risk-3687 The current situation on the oil market borders on the absurd. Maritime traffic data shows a sharp decline in traffic in the Strait of Hormuz: Within a few days, the number of ships entering and leaving this energy corridor had virtually come to a standstill: Bulk carriers, huge cargo ships that transport bulk goods such as iron ore, coal, and grain, and tankers, which carry crude oil and petroleum products, are the two main types of ships that typically pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Under normal circumstances, dozens of ships, sometimes more than a hundred, pass through this particularly narrow maritime corridor every day. It is the main outlet for oil produced in the Persian Gulf to Asia, Europe, and America. However, in recent days, maritime tracking data has shown a sharp decline in these flows. Several bulk carriers have left the area, while some ships linked to Iran are also withdrawing from normal traffic. Above all, the major shipping comp... Fri, 13 Mar 2026 06:05:24 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/extreme-volatility-oil-calm-gold-3686 The sharp fall in the share price of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Japan's second-largest bank, following the revelation of its exposure to the British company Market Financial Solutions (MFS), may at first glance appear to be an isolated incident. On March 3, the stock lost more than 10%: However, this is probably a broader signal about the state of global credit. MFS was a real estate lender specializing in rapid short-term financing, known as bridge financing. In concrete terms, these companies lend funds to real estate developers who need immediate liquidity to acquire an asset or launch a project, pending subsequent refinancing via a bank or the bond markets. This model works very well when real estate prices are rising and credit remains abundant. However, when interest rates rise or liquidity becomes scarce, it becomes much more fragile. This is because it relies on short-term financing to support assets that are often riskier and relatively illi... Fri, 06 Mar 2026 07:45:36 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/credit-under-pressure-euphoric-markets-gold-remains-vigilant-3683 What we are experiencing today goes beyond mere technological euphoria or fears of sector disruption. The AI cycle reveals a paradox: as intelligence becomes increasingly dematerialized, markets are rediscovering the value of the tangible. We are witnessing a double commoditization. By commoditization, we mean a process whereby a product or service, initially differentiated and offering high added value, gradually becomes interchangeable. Technological scarcity fades, differentiation diminishes, barriers to entry are reduced and, ultimately, pricing power erodes. What was once premium becomes standard; what was once strategic becomes accessible. Historically, commoditization has affected industries when innovation spreads faster than the ability to maintain competitive advantage. Computer hardware experienced this, then the cloud, then certain layers of software. Today, this phenomenon is simultaneously affecting two levels of Artificial Intelligence. On the one hand... Fri, 27 Feb 2026 06:20:56 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/why-gold-mining-stocks-outperforming-rest-market-3680 Something is changing in the structure of the markets, and this movement goes far beyond metals alone. It concerns the global allocation of capital. Amazon has just recorded its longest series of negative sessions since 2006. This is not insignificant. We are talking about a pillar of the Nasdaq, a symbol of the “long tech/short real assets” regime that has dominated for more than a decade. When this type of stock suffers losses comparable to those seen in the run-up to the great financial crisis, it reflects at best a slowdown in stock market leadership and at worst a real shift in capital flows. At the same time, gold is not only rising in price; it is attracting capital at a rate that is now difficult to ignore. According to Bank of America, cumulative flows into gold funds have reached approximately $127 billion since 2020. What is particularly striking is the recent momentum: nearly $120 billion has reportedly flowed in since the beginning of 2025. In ot... Fri, 20 Feb 2026 06:19:44 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/portfolio-strategic-reallocation-precious-metals-accelerates-3675 The start of 2026 no longer looks like a simple cyclical slowdown. The downturn is now global and simultaneous: US consumption is running out of steam, unemployment is rising in Europe, household and business confidence is collapsing in China, while defaults are increasing and bond flows betray a growing flight for safety. In the United States, retail sales are stagnating, the control group is declining, and the annualized rate has fallen to its lowest level in 20 months: At the same time, loan defaults continue to rise and are approaching their highest levels since 2017. Delays in payment of 90 days or more are increasing significantly: However, defaults precede write-offs, which then weigh on bank profits and, if the trend continues, on capital. Credit is deteriorating at the very moment when economic activity is slowing down—a historically unstable combination. In Europe, French unemployment has risen to 7.9%, with youth unemployment at 21.5%:... Fri, 13 Feb 2026 06:04:22 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/gold-rises-amid-global-economic-slowdown-3673 The stress observed in cryptocurrencies and silver is not a mere epiphenomenon: it is the first sign of a market regime that is beginning to strain beneath the surface. Bitcoin has returned to test a support zone that has been tested since 2024, around $70,000, while Ethereum is undergoing a much more severe correction—a classic sign of deleveraging that primarily affects the most leveraged segments. This decline is not abstract: it is already beginning to put pressure on certain players. Michael Saylor's company, Strategy, finds itself automatically underwater on some of its recent purchases, made at significantly higher levels. At the same time, more fragile players in the sector, such as BitMine Immersion Technologies, are seeing their business model directly threatened by the combination of a declining bitcoin, high fixed costs, and more restrictive access to financing. The case of BitMine Immersion Technologies perfectly illustrates the nature of the... Fri, 06 Feb 2026 06:05:54 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/market-calm-surface-cracking-beneath-gold-as-benchmark-3670 The breakdown of the Dollar Index below its long-term trend, in place since 2008, is not simply a technical accident. It reflects a much deeper change in the way the dollar's role is perceived at the heart of the global financial system. The market is beginning to realize that the dollar is no longer just a tool for US monetary tightening, but could now serve as an adjustment variable to contain a clearly identified point of fragility: the yen and, through it, the entire global carry trade. This shift accelerated with the New York Fed's announcement that it was prepared to intervene in the foreign exchange market to preserve financial stability. This is far from a trivial signal. When it comes to US intervention in the FX market, this is neither an improvised gesture nor a political symbol, but a well-oiled mechanism operated by the NY Fed's FX desk in coordination with the Treasury via the Exchange Stabilization Fund. The markets know that thes... Fri, 30 Jan 2026 06:19:43 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/collapse-dollar-marks-change-monetary-regime-3664