Laurent Maurel https://goldbroker.com/author/laurent-maurel The current situation on the oil market borders on the absurd. Maritime traffic data shows a sharp decline in traffic in the Strait of Hormuz: Within a few days, the number of ships entering and leaving this energy corridor had virtually come to a standstill: Bulk carriers, huge cargo ships that transport bulk goods such as iron ore, coal, and grain, and tankers, which carry crude oil and petroleum products, are the two main types of ships that typically pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Under normal circumstances, dozens of ships, sometimes more than a hundred, pass through this particularly narrow maritime corridor every day. It is the main outlet for oil produced in the Persian Gulf to Asia, Europe, and America. However, in recent days, maritime tracking data has shown a sharp decline in these flows. Several bulk carriers have left the area, while some ships linked to Iran are also withdrawing from normal traffic. Above all, the major shipping comp... Fri, 13 Mar 2026 06:05:24 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/extreme-volatility-oil-calm-gold-3686 The sharp fall in the share price of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Japan's second-largest bank, following the revelation of its exposure to the British company Market Financial Solutions (MFS), may at first glance appear to be an isolated incident. On March 3, the stock lost more than 10%: However, this is probably a broader signal about the state of global credit. MFS was a real estate lender specializing in rapid short-term financing, known as bridge financing. In concrete terms, these companies lend funds to real estate developers who need immediate liquidity to acquire an asset or launch a project, pending subsequent refinancing via a bank or the bond markets. This model works very well when real estate prices are rising and credit remains abundant. However, when interest rates rise or liquidity becomes scarce, it becomes much more fragile. This is because it relies on short-term financing to support assets that are often riskier and relatively illi... Fri, 06 Mar 2026 07:45:36 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/credit-under-pressure-euphoric-markets-gold-remains-vigilant-3683 What we are experiencing today goes beyond mere technological euphoria or fears of sector disruption. The AI cycle reveals a paradox: as intelligence becomes increasingly dematerialized, markets are rediscovering the value of the tangible. We are witnessing a double commoditization. By commoditization, we mean a process whereby a product or service, initially differentiated and offering high added value, gradually becomes interchangeable. Technological scarcity fades, differentiation diminishes, barriers to entry are reduced and, ultimately, pricing power erodes. What was once premium becomes standard; what was once strategic becomes accessible. Historically, commoditization has affected industries when innovation spreads faster than the ability to maintain competitive advantage. Computer hardware experienced this, then the cloud, then certain layers of software. Today, this phenomenon is simultaneously affecting two levels of Artificial Intelligence. On the one hand... Fri, 27 Feb 2026 06:20:56 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/why-gold-mining-stocks-outperforming-rest-market-3680 Something is changing in the structure of the markets, and this movement goes far beyond metals alone. It concerns the global allocation of capital. Amazon has just recorded its longest series of negative sessions since 2006. This is not insignificant. We are talking about a pillar of the Nasdaq, a symbol of the “long tech/short real assets” regime that has dominated for more than a decade. When this type of stock suffers losses comparable to those seen in the run-up to the great financial crisis, it reflects at best a slowdown in stock market leadership and at worst a real shift in capital flows. At the same time, gold is not only rising in price; it is attracting capital at a rate that is now difficult to ignore. According to Bank of America, cumulative flows into gold funds have reached approximately $127 billion since 2020. What is particularly striking is the recent momentum: nearly $120 billion has reportedly flowed in since the beginning of 2025. In ot... Fri, 20 Feb 2026 06:19:44 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/portfolio-strategic-reallocation-precious-metals-accelerates-3675 The start of 2026 no longer looks like a simple cyclical slowdown. The downturn is now global and simultaneous: US consumption is running out of steam, unemployment is rising in Europe, household and business confidence is collapsing in China, while defaults are increasing and bond flows betray a growing flight for safety. In the United States, retail sales are stagnating, the control group is declining, and the annualized rate has fallen to its lowest level in 20 months: At the same time, loan defaults continue to rise and are approaching their highest levels since 2017. Delays in payment of 90 days or more are increasing significantly: However, defaults precede write-offs, which then weigh on bank profits and, if the trend continues, on capital. Credit is deteriorating at the very moment when economic activity is slowing down—a historically unstable combination. In Europe, French unemployment has risen to 7.9%, with youth unemployment at 21.5%:... Fri, 13 Feb 2026 06:04:22 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/gold-rises-amid-global-economic-slowdown-3673 The stress observed in cryptocurrencies and silver is not a mere epiphenomenon: it is the first sign of a market regime that is beginning to strain beneath the surface. Bitcoin has returned to test a support zone that has been tested since 2024, around $70,000, while Ethereum is undergoing a much more severe correction—a classic sign of deleveraging that primarily affects the most leveraged segments. This decline is not abstract: it is already beginning to put pressure on certain players. Michael Saylor's company, Strategy, finds itself automatically underwater on some of its recent purchases, made at significantly higher levels. At the same time, more fragile players in the sector, such as BitMine Immersion Technologies, are seeing their business model directly threatened by the combination of a declining bitcoin, high fixed costs, and more restrictive access to financing. The case of BitMine Immersion Technologies perfectly illustrates the nature of the... Fri, 06 Feb 2026 06:05:54 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/market-calm-surface-cracking-beneath-gold-as-benchmark-3670 The breakdown of the Dollar Index below its long-term trend, in place since 2008, is not simply a technical accident. It reflects a much deeper change in the way the dollar's role is perceived at the heart of the global financial system. The market is beginning to realize that the dollar is no longer just a tool for US monetary tightening, but could now serve as an adjustment variable to contain a clearly identified point of fragility: the yen and, through it, the entire global carry trade. This shift accelerated with the New York Fed's announcement that it was prepared to intervene in the foreign exchange market to preserve financial stability. This is far from a trivial signal. When it comes to US intervention in the FX market, this is neither an improvised gesture nor a political symbol, but a well-oiled mechanism operated by the NY Fed's FX desk in coordination with the Treasury via the Exchange Stabilization Fund. The markets know that thes... Fri, 30 Jan 2026 06:19:43 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/collapse-dollar-marks-change-monetary-regime-3664 Western investors are not rushing to buy gold, but are mainly focusing on passive investments. This is one of the most striking paradoxes of the current cycle. In an environment marked by persistent inflation, geopolitical tensions, and record government debt, the historical reflex would have been to seek refuge primarily in gold. However, it is equity ETFs and passive strategies that are capturing most of the inflows. Not out of deep conviction, but out of habit. For several months now, capital inflows into US equity ETFs have reached levels rarely seen before, to the point where they have become the main driver of the indices. This trend is often interpreted as a vote of confidence in growth or in “American exceptionalism.” In reality, it mainly reflects a perceived lack of alternatives. Bonds no longer offer credible protection, cash is eroded by inflation, and non-US markets appear riskier or less liquid. Passive investing then becomes the default choice.... Thu, 22 Jan 2026 06:10:56 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/stock-market-euphoria-masks-true-signal-gold-3661 JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s results are first and foremost a factual reminder: 2025 was not the year of macroeconomic disruption that had been predicted. A major bank does not have an exceptional year in a recessionary economy—and JPM clearly benefited from a still-favorable environment. The main drivers remain strong. Interest margins—the income the bank derives from the difference between what it earns on its loans and what it pays on its deposits—remain high. Trading activities are holding up well, a sign that markets are liquid and dynamic. Asset and wealth management are making a steady contribution. Capital is comfortable and credit is generally healthy. Only investment banking is slowing down, primarily due to a less favorable cycle for IPOs and large M&A deals—not a deterioration in the real economy. In the fourth quarter of 2025, JPMorgan posted a ROTCE of 18%. In other words, for every $100 of capital actually deployed, the bank generated $18... Fri, 16 Jan 2026 06:15:32 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/finance-celebrates-2025-gold-already-pricing-in-2026-3657 The geopolitical context has become significantly more tense in recent weeks, but for the markets — and particularly for volatility — not all tensions are created equal. A rigorous analysis requires distinguishing between political noise, narrative, and diplomatic posturing, and what is truly capable of constraining global liquidity and thus derailing a market regime dominated by short volatility. For a non-specialist reader, this simply means that as long as volatility is deliberately kept low, the market operates according to artificial rules, and everything appears to be fine. Short volatility refers to strategies that bet on a calm market; they make money as long as fluctuations remain low and, in turn, they themselves contribute to preventing the market from moving. “Derailing a market regime dominated by short vol” does not mean causing a small decline or a bad session; it means breaking this self-perpetuating cycle. This only happens when something forces players... Thu, 08 Jan 2026 06:28:17 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/geopolitical-risk-dismissed-markets-priced-precious-metals-3653 The year 2026 begins with structural fragility masked by markets that are still under anesthesia. In the very short term, the first question is whether short volatility trading will come to an end. After a historically long period of risk compression, the market is entering 2026 without any real safety net. Volatility has been crushed to support the indices, but this regime is reaching saturation point. The danger is not a slow and orderly correction, but a sudden break in the pattern, precisely because protections have not been put in place upstream. Short volatility trading is now the main mechanism explaining why markets are holding up despite the accumulation of fragilities. This pattern has now been in place for 28 consecutive sessions, which is exceptional in terms of its duration. In practical terms, the mechanism has almost become routine. Every morning, we often see an upward gap on the VIX (VIX futures), linked to a little overnight concern, residual macro flo... Thu, 01 Jan 2026 06:18:40 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/2026-the-year-true-capital-rotation-3650 We are facing an extremely rare situation: the VIX is close to its lowest level in a year, around 14, while the price of gold is reaching historic highs. Under normal circumstances, this coexistence does not exist. Crushed equity volatility is generally accompanied by sluggish, marginal, useless gold. Today, it is exactly the opposite. This is not a statistical anomaly, but a change in regime. The divergence will gradually emerge from 2023 onwards, with the VIX remaining subdued while gold stops correcting and breaks free from periods of calm on the equity markets. But 2025 marks a clear break in the intensity of the phenomenon. This year, the divergence is not only continuing, it is accelerating: the VIX is sinking to one-year or even multi-year lows, while gold is setting new records. We have moved from a simple regime shift to a structural divergence between artificially compressed equity volatility and a monetary asset that is increasingly clearly incorpora... Fri, 26 Dec 2025 06:24:21 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/how-explain-historical-divergence-between-gold-volatility-3649 For several sessions now, and increasingly so as volatility options approach expiration, the market has been operating under a particular regime that should be described for what it is: an environment where volatility is no longer merely the consequence of price movements, but has become an actively managed variable. This is neither a value judgment nor an accusation, but an observation based on repeated monitoring of very specific market sequences. What we have observed, session after session, is a striking recurrence of the same mechanisms. Every time the indices attempt to pull back, volatility reacts immediately, and this reaction is followed – often within an extremely short period of time – by aggressive buying of index futures. The objective is clear: to contain the rise in the VIX, sometimes without even seeking to drive sustained gains in the equity markets. In several cases, volatility has been compressed even as indices remained stable or edged lower, which... Thu, 18 Dec 2025 06:22:27 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/precious-metals-decode-market-interventions-3646 Silver has just crossed a symbolic threshold – more than $60 to $61 per ounce for the first time in history – after jumping 100 to 110% since the beginning of 2025, its best performance since the crazy year of 1979. The movement appears “explosive” in the short term, but it is actually part of a dynamic that we have been following step by step for several years on Goldbroker.com: On December 13, 2024, I wrote that the rise in EFP premiums on March contracts signaled abnormal tension between COMEX and the London physical market. I pointed out that this spread, which is supposed to simply reflect storage and financing costs, had slipped to more than a dollar per ounce, putting pressure on bullion banks, which are structurally short on these EFPs. I also highlighted a point that had gone unnoticed at the time: the risk that the tariffs announced by the Trump administration on metal imports (including silver bars refined in China) would disrupt the logistics of phy... Fri, 12 Dec 2025 06:12:48 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/silver-metal-year-2025-3644 China has just abruptly closed the crypto chapter. Twelve ministries and central authorities — including the People's Bank of China, Public Security, Cybersecurity, Justice, Financial Supervision, Capital Markets Regulator, etc. — have signed a document that leaves no room for ambiguity: all activities related to cryptocurrencies remain illegal. China's central bank vows crackdown on virtual currency, flags stablecoin concerns https://t.co/KKjVjhexTu https://t.co/KKjVjhexTu — Reuters (@Reuters) November 29, 2025 Stablecoins are explicitly classified as high-risk instruments associated with money laundering and illicit capital flows. Beijing is simultaneously tightening its exchange controls and KYC/AML requirements. In practical terms, China has disconnected cryptocurrencies from its financial system. This decision creates a gaping void for Asian counterparties. The crypto portfolios of Chinese desks are becoming disconnected assets, impossible to re... Fri, 05 Dec 2025 06:15:52 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/beijing-shuts-door-cryptocurrency-paving-way-for-gold-3641 Since April, a large part of the market believed it had a simple strategy: to hedge against a market that had become too vertical, too dependent on AI, too expensive, and too unstable. Many managers and investors noted that valuations – particularly those of companies linked to artificial intelligence – were reaching worrying levels, even for those who were benefiting directly from them. The example of NVIDIA is particularly telling: over the past three months, the company's executives and managers have carried out 69 share sales, compared with no purchases. This represents more than eight million shares sold by those who know the company best. Over twelve months, nearly twenty million shares were sold, while purchases remained very marginal. When insiders – executives and senior managers – sell their own shares en masse, it generally reflects latent concern about the level of valuation. It's not that the company is of poor quality, but its stock pric... Fri, 28 Nov 2025 06:20:09 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/shorts-no-longer-protect-gold-ultimate-insurance-3637 Current events have led to a flood of analyses in recent hours that are as spectacular as they are approximate: Japan is said to be triggering a “historic transfer of wealth,” the yen carry trade is about to explode, and a “Gilt moment” is brewing in the shadows. However, when we look at the markets, none of this holds water. The yen is not strengthening, quite the contrary; the USD/JPY remains abnormally high, proof that the dollar remains the scarce currency in a global liquidity crisis. However, as long as the yen remains weak, there is no driver for unwinding carry trades. The very mechanics of the sensationalist argument collapse: unwinding carry trades requires a strong yen. We are far from that. Alongside the persistent weakness of the yen, Japanese 20-year bonds are soaring – but they are no longer soaring for the same reasons as between 2021 and 2024. The first phase of rising long-term interest rates in Japan, from 2021 to the end of 2023, was a... Fri, 21 Nov 2025 06:11:53 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/rise-yen-japanese-20-year-bonds-understanding-real-crisis-3632 The Busan summit was supposed to symbolize economic reconciliation between the world's two largest powers. The White House spoke of a “historic agreement”; the American media repeated the term “agreement” without mentioning that no text had been signed. Everything was based on verbal promises and a carefully calibrated staging. Beijing, for its part, has not issued any official confirmation: neither MOFCOM, nor the People's Bank, nor even COFCO, the state agency responsible for agricultural imports, have echoed the commitments mentioned by Washington. The only trace of the alleged “deal” remains an American press release touting concessions that, on the Chinese side, do not exist anywhere in the official records. The agricultural component was supposed to be the showcase for this new relationship: 12 million tons of American soybeans by the end of 2025, then 25 million per year until 2028. For a few days, the markets believed it. Soybean prices rebounded, Mid... Fri, 14 Nov 2025 06:32:17 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/gold-rises-usa-china-non-deal-3628 The incident that occurred on the night of November 3 to 4 marks a silent but decisive turning point. What initially appeared to be merely a technical loss on a DeFi protocol – i.e., a decentralized finance platform where users lend, borrow, or exchange their cryptocurrencies directly without going through a bank – turned into a real stress test for the entire crypto liquidity system. A decentralized finance protocol called Stream revealed an estimated loss of $93 million, or nearly a third of its assets under management. The fund managed approximately $285 million in loans secured by digital assets such as xUSD, xBTC, and xETH – tokenized versions of the dollar, bitcoin, and ether. In practice, Stream functioned as a lending platform: investors deposited stablecoins (often USDC or USDT) to generate a return, while others borrowed these funds by leaving crypto assets as collateral. But the mechanism suddenly seized up. The value of the collateral deposited – notably xU... Fri, 07 Nov 2025 06:20:02 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/physical-gold-only-safe-haven-crypto-storm-3625 At first glance, everything seems under control: stocks are holding steady and the U.S. economy is resilient. And yet, something is going wrong in the global financial system. In recent days, the cost of very short-term cash — the SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate), which measures how much it costs to borrow money overnight — has risen sharply. The SOFR overnight rate, which measures the actual cost of money between institutions, now exceeds the IOR rate — the rate the Fed pays banks on their reserves. This spread, the largest since the beginning of the current monetary cycle, shows that it is now more expensive to obtain cash on the market than to leave it sitting in the Fed's vaults. In other words, financial institutions are willing to pay more to borrow dollars in the very short term than they would earn by leaving them at the central bank. This is a sign of localized liquidity shortages: dollars exist in the system, but they are no longer circul... Fri, 31 Oct 2025 06:20:56 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/liquidity-stress-intensifying-3624