Matthew Piepenburg https://goldbroker.com/author/matthew-piepenburg As my last report for 2023, I wanted to hit the big issues blunt in the face—from debt and sovereign bond markets to themes on the USD, inflation, risk markets and physical gold. This will not be short, but hopefully simple. No one likes hard macro facts, especially at holiday parties, so I’ll sip my champagne in silence and share my views here instead. Powell: From Hawk to Dove to Jive Turkey in 30 Days So, hawkish Powell is now talking about dovish rate cuts in 2024. Powell, however, is neither a hawk nor dove but more of a jive turkey or, in the spirit of Christmas, a cooked goose. The sad but simple fact of the matter is that our Fed Chairman, like so many of the so-called “experts,” has a genuine problem with admitting failure or speaking honestly—which is why I recommended long ago to bet against the experts… Looming Rate Cuts? No Surprise at All For any who have been following my blunt views on US debt markets, bond volatility, interest rate gyrations and... Thu, 28 Dec 2023 22:39:28 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/end-crappy-year-beginning-worse-one-3252 Matterhorn Asset Management, AG partner, Matthew Piepenburg, sits down with David Lin of the David Lin Report to help end a number of false debates and narratives currently making the headlines. Piepenburg begins by squarely addressing the so-called GDP “surge” in the U.S. as little more than a deficit-spending contradiction, as more debt-based “growth” is not genuine growth, but, well…just more debt. He depicts the simultaneous rise in yields, GDP, and deficits in the U.S. as resembling the profile of an emerging market nation rather than that of a leading developed economy. Piepenburg elaborates on how escalating yields and rates exacerbate the financial burden on consumers, as the concealed tax of substantially underreported inflation compounds the problem. Turning to bonds, Piepenburg warns against the so-called lure of bond “value” and rising yields. He argues that stress in the bond market is far from over. The only way to support/lift so... Tue, 21 Nov 2023 10:41:22 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/fatally-cornered-fed-historically-honest-gold-3236 Matterhorn Asset Management partner, Matthew Piepenburg, sits down with Rick Rule and Jim Rickards at the recent Rick Rule Precious Metals Symposium to discuss the future of the USD, the rising BRICS tide and the Realpolitik of any realistic (i.e., immediate) gold-backed BRICS trade currency. Each of the trio share their views on the de-dollarization trend, with Piepenburg and Rule taking a far less optimistic view of any immediate gold-backed trading currency emerging among the BRICS nations in 2023. Toward this end, Piepenburg argues that not even BRICS nations are ready to limit themselves or their financial powers to a gold-backed trading currency; and certainly not to a gold-backed sovereign currency. That said, all agree that the weaponized USD is losing trust and that the UST is losing demand as a post-sanction world moves further and further away from Dollar-based trade agreements. For Piepenburg, the end-game is clear. Debt drives pol... Mon, 04 Sep 2023 06:15:44 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/golds-role-rises-dollar-hegemony-falls-3181 Matthew Piepenburg shares his views in this extensive interview with Daniela Cambone of Stansberry Research, covering the Fed, petrodollar and de-dollarization, banking risk and gold. “The world’s reserve currency is not going to change.” The U.S. dollar accounts for 60% of the global currency pool. As a result, what’s changing is the hegemony, the respect, the trust for the U.S. dollar as a payment system. BRICS countries began trading with each other using alternative currencies because the Fed’s interest-rate hikes made the US dollar too expensive. Foreign treasuries and foreign nations have been dumping U.S. treasuries throughout 2022… $14 trillion in foreign debt has to be paid in U.S. dollars. The fiat game is not sustainable. This debt game is not sustainable. You can’t keep solving the debt problem with more debt. FedNow and other central bank digital currencies only serve to expand the government’s control. Protect your wealth throug... Sun, 07 May 2023 03:27:40 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/petrodollar-de-dollarization-banking-risk-gold-3086 Bank runs, Fed policy and Gold On Wednesday, March 8, 2023, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) announced a $ 1.8B loss from the sale of investment securities. Investors and depositors got spooked, withdrawing an estimated $42B+ in cash within a few hours–approx 25% of total SVB deposits, leaving a negative cash balance of $1B by Friday, March 10. SVB was well known for its links to the Venture Capital (VC) and the Tech industry, with $209B in assets under management (AUM). It failed and went into receivership under the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). SVB was the 16th-largest bank in the United States and was the largest bank by deposits in Silicon Valley. On Sunday, the contagion out West hit the New York based Signature Bank, which also failed by bank run. The Treasury Department, Federal Reserve (FED) and the FDIC stepped in to calm the waters… Matthew Piepenburg, Commercial Director at Matterhorn Asset Management, joins Michelle Mako... Wed, 15 Mar 2023 05:41:34 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/silicon-valley-bank-collapse-how-safe-is-banking-system-3040 The latest headlines, of course, are all pointing toward the ripple effect of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), and they should be. This banking metaphor for the tech sector in particular and the previously described disaster in California as a whole or the matter of banking risk as a theme, require understanding and attention, provided below. Once we get past a forensic look at the data and forces which explain SVB’s demise, we quickly discover that SVB is itself just a symbol of a much larger financial (and banking) crisis which ties together nearly all of the major macro forces we’ve been tracking since Powell began his QE to QT quest to be Volcker-reborn. That is, we confirm that everything comes back to the Fed and bond market in general and the UST market in particular. But as I’ve argued for years, and will say again now: The bond market is the thing. By the end of this brief report, we also discover that SVB is just the beginning; contagion inside and outside of the... Mon, 13 Mar 2023 17:43:00 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/making-common-golden-sense-next-senseless-bank-crisis-3035 Below we look at the interplay of embarrassing debt, dying currencies and failed monetary fantasies masquerading as policies to confirm that no matter how one turns or spins the inflation/deflation, QT/QE or recession/no-recession narratives, the global financial system is already doomed. Recession: The Elephant in the Room As I’ve been arguing in report after report, my view has been that the US, with its 125% debt-to-GDP and 7% deficit-to-GDP ratios, was, and already is, in a recession heading into 2023, despite official efforts in DC to re-define the very definition of a recession. But a recession is still a recession, and an elephant is still an elephant, and both are fairly easy to see at a distance. As of now, however, the recession has officially been avoided. How comforting. As with the inflation data, it’s nice when the folks in Washington can exercise their magical powers to move the goal-posts in mid-game whenever a little “cheating” helps their odds and... Mon, 13 Feb 2023 23:46:56 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/global-system-seems-already-doomed-got-gold-3009 In this refreshingly fact-focused report, Matterhorn Asset Management (MAM) advisor, Ronni Stoeferle, takes a deeper look at the false “eco war” on gold. In a world of ever-growing public narratives completely at odds with transparent reality (from “Putin’s” war to “Transitory Inflation”), it should come as no surprise that the current ESG and “Green Revolution Army” of the woke West has turned its political gun sights toward the one precious metal which serves as the greatest threat to a dying fiat currency system: Gold. With puffed chests and lofty claims, global environmental leadership has conveniently made a disingenuous but full-frontal assault on gold mining (and hence gold) as an environmental threat. How convenient… Fortunately, Ronni’s analysis of gold’s use/consumption data, CO2 characteristics and environmental comparisons to conventional fiat currencies provides a far more fact-based (rather than politically-charged) context to this otherwise bogus war on... Mon, 30 Jan 2023 08:51:27 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/why-gold-is-green-2991 In his most recent discussion with Tom Bodrovics of Palisades Gold Radio, Matthew Piepenburg weaves together the various threads of historical cycles, political psychology and the hard math of cancerous global debt to make better sense of uniquely challenging times. Specifically, Piepenburg addresses the blunt and hard realities facing informed investors and independent thinkers in a climate of increasing centralization and political controls masquerading as humanitarian progress or technological innovations. From the failed premise of Schwab’s “Great Reset” to the officially ignored motives (and dangers) behind Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC), history confirms that “broke nations do desperate things.” As Piepenburg reminds, whenever a debt crisis becomes unsustainable, unrest in financial, social and currency systems always follow—every time, no exceptions. Thereafter, and equally confirmed by history, comes increased centralization fro... Mon, 23 Jan 2023 15:27:09 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/gold-honest-freedom-insuring-asset-2990 Matterhorn Asset Management advisor and Incrementum, AG Managing Partner, Ronald Stoeferle, shares his 2022 outlook for gold in the adjoining report. Stoeferle specifically addresses legitimate concerns regarding gold’s relatively tame/disappointing price action in 2021 despite an otherwise gold-favorable setting of declining real rates and rising inflation. Ultimately, he sees the recent sideways movement in the gold price as a sign of strength rather than weakness and makes the case for a “golden year for gold” in 2022. Stoeferle’s convictions for 2022 stem from five core arguments, namely: 1) inflation remaining elevated and persistent; 2) continuing monetary policy excess; 3) a consistent trend of negative real rates; 4) equity market headwinds from inflation; and 5) gold’s favorable relative value against other asset classes. As one of the world’s leading precious metal experts and author of the globally renown and annual, In Gold We Trust report, Stoeferle’s insi... Mon, 24 Jan 2022 16:28:03 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/why-2022-will-be-golden-year-2616 Many are asking why gold is not rising, as just about every other commodity makes new highs in the backdrop of inflationary tailwinds. That’s a very fair question. Some are even saying gold is dead, a silly and “barbarous” old relic of ancient times, ancient math and ancient common sense. Needless to say, we beg to differ, not because we are Swiss-based gold bugs, but simply…well… let’s explain. Current Price vs. Current and Future Roles For those who see history and math as guides rather than “barbarous” and outdated disciplines, their convictions regarding gold’s role, and even price trajectory, do not wane or rise simply due to the paper price of gold. To some extent, and despite Basel 3, gold remains openly manipulated by a handful of central and bullion banks who are terrified of gold’s shine for no other reason than it embarrasses currencies (and mad monetary experiments) falling deeper into discredit. But we track the movement of physical gold every day, an... Sun, 26 Sep 2021 07:38:33 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/why-is-gold-not-rising-2482 Bias vs. Logic We’ve written elsewhere about the ironic over-use of logic to justify otherwise illogical biases. As Swiss-based precious metals professionals who see physical gold and silver as currency protection outside of an openly illogical (and dangerously fractured) banking system, it is more than fair for some to challenge our own “logic” (bias?) when it comes to precious metal ownership. We understand such critiques. Pandora’s Box Such criticism, of course, strikes even more nerves (and claims of potential illogic) when precious metal professionals open the Pandora’s box of any conversation around Bitcoin, which has become, understandably, the sacred cow of many over-night millionaires and legitimately intelligent folks who, like us, distrust now obviously debased fiat currencies. There’s also no ignoring the hysteria (as well as money flows) which support growing claims that BTC has or will replace gold as a new, modern and highly sophisticated store of va... Mon, 17 May 2021 07:44:38 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/bitcoin-vs-gold-a-tired-debate-2325 Psychologists, poets and philosophers have written for centuries that many who have eyes refuse to see, and many who can think, refuse to think clearly–all for the simple reason that some truths, like the sun, are just too hard to look straight into. Or as others have said more bluntly: “Truth is like poetry—everyone [fricking] hates it.” When it comes to bloated markets, debt orgies and helicopter money, the rising fun of such “stimulus” is embraced, yet the template for its equally market-tanking, social-destroying and currency-debasing consequences are simply ignored. The same is true when it comes to the “great inflation debate,” which is simply no longer a debate but a neon-screaming reality playing out in real time and growing more pernicious before eyes otherwise blinded by calming Fed-speak and bogus inflation scales. Each passing day, the evidence of the inflationary cancer beneath the smiling surface of our still rising markets and “recovering/opening” econ... Mon, 10 May 2021 07:29:55 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/keep-it-simple-gold-vs-mad-world-2311 Recently, my colleague, Egon von Greyerz, and I had some unabashed yet blunt fun calling out the staggering levels of open hypocrisy and policy desperation unleashed by former Fed Chairman, Alan Greenspan. Poor Alan was an easy target of what I described as the “patient zero” of the reckless interest rate suppression and unbridled monetary expansion policies of the Fed which have always led to equally reckless boom and bust cycles in markets and economies. But let us be fair to comical Fed Chairmen like Greenspan, as he is not alone in making a mockery of his post at the Eccles Building. With the exception of Paul Volker and William Martin, the sad truth is that nearly every person who has sat in that lead Chair of a private bank masquerading as a “Federal” reserve has made the bank, and themselves, a public embarrassment. As the legendary private investor Jim Rogers recently observed on Kitco news, almost all central bankers effectively lie and obfuscate facts as pa... Sun, 02 May 2021 08:30:27 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/gold-is-laughing-at-powell-2301 Below, we consider two well-known names in modern markets, former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, and current value investing legend, Jeremy Grantham, co-founder of GMO Investment Strategies. Years ago, I sat down with Jeremy Grantham in an office overlooking Boston Harbor to not only consider an investment in his fund, but to absorb the insights of a blunt-spoken observer of market risk. Such blunt-speak, as I’ve written elsewhere, is a rare trait among the cadres of otherwise high-profile wealth managers whose incentives and survival are often predicated more upon selling hope than speaking to risk—the equivalent of being a whistleblower among a financial advisory complex driven largely by the gathering of fees rather than the reporting (and managing) of risk. Almost a decade later, I’m still listening to Mr. Grantham and strongly recommend that others do the same. A Market Bubble of Epic Proportions Although it should come as no surprise to anyone who has tracked ma... Mon, 26 Apr 2021 07:37:30 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/patient-zero-bubble-pandemic-alan-greenspan-2286 Upton Sinclair famously observed that, “it is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” After decades navigating among Wall Street sell-siders or reading the pablum that passes for financial journalism in the retail space, I discovered it was always an open secret in the big banks that if you wanted to move up the ladder, don’t rock the boat. In short: Keep the message bullish, as bears get fired and bulls stay hired. Such Realpolitik is nothing new; employees, be they working for the New York Times, the Federal Reserve or Goldman Sachs, have a vested interest in staying employed. This by no means makes self-preserving realists cowards, but it certainly doesn’t make such professionals helpful fiduciaries to those trying to make sense of that oh-so elusive chimera otherwise known as blunt facts and hard truths. In the halls of financial power, and by extension financial messaging, such self-preservation ofte... Mon, 19 Apr 2021 00:49:02 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/us-money-supply-more-lies-from-on-high-2270 When it comes to the topic of banking risk, well… one can only lean back in a chair, sigh and say: “Where to begin?” A Rich and Deep History of the Absurd Banks, and hence banking risk, come in a wide variety of flavors, largely because bank mismanagement and short-sighted absurdity comes with equal frequency. As such, a fuller discussion on banking risk would necessitate hundreds of pages and hundreds of examples. From the woefully arrogant and even more woefully mismanaged central banks, to the equally arrogant and mismanaged commercial banks, the long history of almost unbelievable hubris, risk, and over-bonused (and over-touted) bank leadership is almost endless. Perhaps this is what prompted Henry Ford to observe that if ordinary citizens actually knew how banks operated (i.e. from fractional reserve banking to arms-length derivative deals with over-levered hedge funds), there would be immediate revolution in the streets. Although such observations may seem lik... Mon, 12 Apr 2021 08:17:35 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/banking-risk-real-killer-virus-2256 An Ode to Law School In recent weeks, I’ve authored many reports pointing toward the certainty of both current as well as rising inflation ahead, which, of course, is favorable to the long-term price direction in gold. That said, I also joked that the only thing certain in life is uncertainty; and yet I stuck to my inflationary certainty. With this paradox openly confessed, one of my former law professors sent me a polite yet challenging email to make a contrary case for inflation, as he had taught me (and many others) to do as part of a 3-year legal education in seeing two sides to every fact pattern. And so, in deference to a wise professor, as well as the humility of seeing more than one’s own certainty, let’s give deflation a fair look, as well as fair argument. In the end, fortunately, the net result is the same for gold: Its best days are still ahead. The Case for Deflation Despite all the reasons discussed in preceding reports (i.e., money supply, commodity... Mon, 05 Apr 2021 15:27:03 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/gold-rises-as-financial-faith-weakens-2242 Over the years I’ve written almost ad nauseum about the crazy I see (and saw) around me as a fund manager, family office principal and individual investor. The list includes: 1) an entire book on the grotesque central bank distortions of free market price discovery, 2) the open (and now accepted) dishonesty on everything from front-running Musk tweets and bogus inflation reporting to COMEX price fixing, 3) the insanity of 100-Year Austrian bonds or just plain negative-yielding bonds going mainstream, 4) the open death of classic capitalism and the rise of economic feudalism, 5) asset bubble hysteria seen in everything from BTC to Tesla; 5) rising social unrest, 6) the serious implications of Yield Curve Control and the gross mispricing of debt that has midwifed the greatest credit binge/bubble in recorded history, and 7) the ignored power of logical delusion that so characterizes the madness of crowds in the current investment era. In short, there a great deal of thing... Mon, 29 Mar 2021 08:34:51 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/inflation-crypto-command-economies-and-gold-2233 We certainly live in interesting times. Yet be you bear or bull, left or right, optimist, cynic or pessimist, one would be hard pressed to pretend that anything is, well, normal. The Controversially Insane Many are questioning why a virus with a death rate of less than .4% has shut down the global economy for a year and counting. Despite extremely legitimate moments of silence for those who died with (or of) COVID, others are questioning policy makers who ignored protecting the most at risk profiles while remaining largely silent for the self-inflicted death for the rest of Main Street economies shut-down across the world. As millions of Americans await a check from Uncle Sam to the tune of $1400, some are wondering why SEC-sanctioned liars and tweet-happy front runners like Elon Musk and other C-suite tech giants are amassing fortunes. Incidentally, that $1400 check is ¼ the cost of the dress worn by Meghan Markle in her recent attempt to convince Oprah and the res... Mon, 22 Mar 2021 08:26:03 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/making-sense-of-comex-insanity-2217