Philippe Herlin https://goldbroker.com/author/philippe-herlin A two-week ceasefire has just been signed between the United States and Iran. The agreement appears fragile — we’ll have to wait and see — and the risk of a resurgence in inflation remains, particularly in Europe. In a statement released on April 5, OPEC+ warned that repairing the energy infrastructure damaged in recent attacks would be “costly” and take “a long time,” which could have a lasting impact on global oil supplies. Even though several countries have announced an increase in their production quotas, the impact will be limited. For its part, the International Energy Agency (IEA) emphasizes, in an analysis dated March 21, that disruptions to oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz, as well as attacks on energy infrastructure in the region, constitute “the greatest threat to global energy security in history.” In 2025, approximately 25% of global maritime oil trade passed through this strategic waterway, for which alternatives remain limited. Although eme... Thu, 09 Apr 2026 05:35:12 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/inflation-gold-already-anticipating-3696 In just a few days, the global geopolitical and economic situation has suddenly become tense. The attack by the United States and Israel on Iran on February 28 caused a sharp rise in oil prices and reignited fears of inflation. Shortly after hostilities broke out, Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a quarter of the world's oil passes. As a result, the price per barrel briefly exceeded $100, a 50% increase from its pre-conflict level. We are familiar with oil crises: they are usually accompanied by inflation and recession. But in this case, the particular context of the conflict amplifies the threats. Natural gas, particularly LNG, is also affected by the halt in maritime traffic: its price is soaring and the risk of shortages can no longer be ruled out. Geopolitically, it is mainly China that depends on Iranian oil. Beijing has already banned certain fuel exports, a clear sign of the ongoing tensions. Another serious consequence is that around... Thu, 12 Mar 2026 06:15:04 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/another-oil-shock-another-financial-crisis-3685 It's funny how gold and bitcoin seem to have swapped roles since the beginning of 2025: usually placid and steadily rising, gold is now skyrocketing like bitcoin in the midst of a bull run, while the digital currency is enjoying a year of calm and stability. And what could be called the “altcoins of gold,” namely silver, platinum, and palladium, are climbing behind the number one precious metal. Meanwhile, altcoins (Ethereum, XRP, Solana, etc.) are looking gloomy. The world has been turned upside down! One question immediately springs to mind: is gold at risk of experiencing a plunge similar to those that bitcoin regularly suffers during its bear markets? Is a gold crash conceivable? Let's examine this scenario. Bitcoin evolves in relatively well-identified four-year cycles, punctuated by halving—a mechanism that halves money creation every four years. Except right now. 2025 should have been a good year, but bitcoin has fallen far behind gold. Is this a delay... Thu, 29 Jan 2026 06:20:27 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/should-we-worry-about-gold-crash-3663 As it does at the start of every year, Saxo Bank has unveiled its “Outrageous Predictions.” The aim is not so much to gaze into a crystal ball as to provoke thought, challenge assumptions, and surprise. Whether you agree with them or not, they make for interesting reading. At a time when economists too often take refuge in cautious projections that simply extend past trends in inflation or growth, these disruptive scenarios have the merit of taking us out of traditional macro models. The eight “outrageous” predictions for 2026 are no exception to the rule. One of my favorites imagines the appointment of an AI to head a large American company—a scenario that seems, at this stage, almost plausible. The first of these predictions announces that the operational quantum computer will be developed faster than expected, as early as 2026. Such an advance would make all older bitcoin addresses vulnerable, leading to a catastrophic crash in the crypto market. Many security system... Thu, 15 Jan 2026 06:05:14 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/outrageous-pedictions-saxo-bank-yuan-pegged-to-gold-2026-3656 A new assault targeting a cryptocurrency holder took place in La Rochelle, France, on December 18. The attackers succeeded: they forced the victim to transfer the equivalent of $10 million before vanishing without a trace. This is the largest cryptocurrency theft ever recorded in France. Previous cases had taken the form of kidnappings for ransom, without success. This time, however, the holder himself was directly targeted. According to his testimony, the attackers claimed they knew exactly what he owned thanks to a data breach. This has become a global business for burglars — more than 280 cases recorded according to this website — and France ranks among the most exposed countries. Moreover, starting January 1, legal obligations will tighten: cryptocurrency exchanges will be required to record and transmit all client transactions to the tax authorities, in accordance with the European DAC8 legislation. In the event that one of these platforms is hacked, such data woul... Wed, 31 Dec 2025 06:16:21 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/security-critical-challenge-for-gold-holders-3648 Bitcoin is often referred to as “digital gold,” but its price performance since the beginning of the year has been nothing like that of the precious metal: while it has been stagnating around $100,000, gold has been breaking record after record. How can such a difference be explained? It seems to be down to private individuals. The research firm River provides a very convincing explanation for the sluggishness of the price of bitcoin: individuals are selling. In fact, institutional demand (bitcoin treasury companies, ETFs, etc.) is six times greater than the production of new bitcoins by miners (450 BTC/day). The price should skyrocket, but there is a massive seller at the moment: private individuals, selling more than 3,000 BTC/day. During previous bull runs (2017, 2021), individual investors rushed in when prices rose, amplifying the movement. There was a kind of hysteria, FOMO (Fear of Missing Out), and the media reported on it daily. However, many bought a... Thu, 11 Dec 2025 06:04:28 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/individuals-favor-gold-over-bitcoin-3643 We are familiar with the classic appearance of a long-term chart of the gold price; here, for example, is the one presented on GoldBroker.com: The disadvantage of this representation is that it obscures the values of periods when the price was lower: the recent sharp rise tends to flatten out everything that happened before. To better understand gold cycles, it is best to use a logarithmic chart. A logarithmic scale allows values belonging to very different orders of magnitude to be represented on the same chart, which is precisely the case for gold. On the y-axis, we can see that the intervals between 30, 300, 3,000, and 30,000 are identical, even though each value is multiplied by ten. The advantage of this is that the cycles of the 1970s are clearly visible. Strangely enough, I had trouble finding such a chart for gold, even though it is commonly available for bitcoin; it is true that bitcoin has a very visible four-year cycle due to halving. But for gold,... Thu, 27 Nov 2025 06:23:57 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/logarithmic-gold-price-chart-another-perspective-encouraging-3636 Those who demand greater transparency in the name of democracy will be disappointed. The public debt is mainly held by foreign investors, but it is impossible to know which countries and in what proportions. I have long lamented this fact – first in my books on debt, then in this article from August 2024, in which I attempted to reconstruct this list based on the countries visited by Agence France Trésor. The information is kept secret for good reasons, according to a Senate report entitled “On the issues associated with the structure of government debt”, published on September 24, 2025. We are asked to comply. However, the United States publishes this data on the Congress website. Moreover, France appears there with $332 billion. But for the French authorities, the answer is no. To be clear, we are talking here about government debt, strictly speaking: "In the first quarter of 2025, France's public debt stood at €3.3454 trillion, or 113.9% of gross domesti... Thu, 16 Oct 2025 05:31:12 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/holders-france-debt-must-remain-secret-according-senate-3616 The world's largest private holder of physical gold is Tether, with 80 tons worth approximately $8 billion. Why is this? Let's start by reminding ourselves what a stablecoin is: it is a cryptocurrency indexed to a given asset, most often a currency, primarily the dollar — 1 tether (USDT) = 1 dollar. USDT was originally designed for traders who speculate on different cryptocurrencies but also want to be able to close out their positions at night or on weekends, or secure part of their assets by switching all or part of their portfolio to dollars. But selling cryptocurrencies for real dollars is time-consuming, costly in terms of fees — since it requires going through the banking system — and often triggers a capital gains tax. Staying on the exchange platform and switching to stablecoins, on the other hand, is instantaneous and inexpensive. Hence the success of Tether, the inventor of the concept in 2017. Stablecoins have now moved beyond exchange platforms a... Thu, 02 Oct 2025 05:21:19 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/no1-stablecoin-thether-invests-in-physical-gold-why-3609 Fitch's downgrade of France's debt rating last Friday was expected. It remains to be seen whether Moody's and Standard & Poor's will follow suit on October 24 and November 28, which seems quite likely. Since losing its triple-A rating in 2013, France has seen a series of downgrades. However, this latest downgrade is more worrying: the move from AA to A puts France in a lower category – from “premium” to “average,” so to speak – at a time when many international investors are statutorily required to invest only in double-A or triple-A rated securities. And that matters when 54% of the debt is purchased by foreigners. France risks losing some of its regular buyers, which will automatically lead to a rise in interest rates. The new Prime Minister, Sébastien Lecornu, will attempt to get a budget passed, with more success than his predecessors. The stage is set, and the show can begin. He is revising downwards the already modest targets set by Fra... Thu, 18 Sep 2025 05:28:15 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/france-standstill-awaiting-fall-3601 In our previous article, we discussed the great decline of Europe. However, some might argue that, despite everything, economic growth remains strong, proving that the continent still has a chance in international competition and that there is reason to remain hopeful. In this chart from Rexecode (base 100 in the fourth quarter of 2019, just before Covid), Spain and Italy stand out in particular, along with France. These countries are performing better than Germany, long held up as a model: GDP growth in major European economies However, on closer inspection, this growth appears largely artificial. It is not the result of a program of deregulation, liberalization, and tax cuts à la Javier Milei — which is the only way to stimulate healthy long-term growth and would be perfectly justified in our overregulated and tax-burdened economies. No, Argentina is not a model for Rome and Madrid, even if they have taken some good measures (cutting subsidies for the energy... Thu, 21 Aug 2025 05:31:02 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/europe-artificial-growth-credit-3587 Until now, the European Union has been regularly criticized for its nitpicking bureaucracy: a desire to regulate everything, even if it meant stifling emerging technology sectors — yesterday the internet, today cryptocurrencies and AI — or imposing excessive constraints on existing industries, such as banning combustion engines by 2035 and requiring the widespread deployment of intermittent energy sources. Admittedly, the idea of a “powerful Europe” still lingered, based on the premise that with 27 members, unity would bring strength. But this myth collapsed with the pitiful and totally unbalanced trade agreement concluded between Ursula von der Leyen and Donald Trump: tariffs, purchases of liquefied natural gas, investments... everything is going in one direction. It is not only the European project that has been struck at its core, it is the very future of the European continent that is suddenly clouded by the threat of major economic decline. It is becoming increas... Thu, 07 Aug 2025 05:30:40 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/europe-the-great-decline-3578 The price of gold is rising — more in dollars than in euros, due to the depreciation of the US currency — as is that of bitcoin. Equities, too, are on the rise: the S&P 500 has already wiped out the losses associated with the tariffs mini-crisis. This in itself is a little odd, as gold and equities generally move in opposite directions. In times of growth, investors logically turn to equities, and when fears arise, to gold. Sovereign bonds are in trouble overall — as evidenced by the rise in yields — with US debt in the lead (read “Bessent's Crazy Gamble”), while real estate stagnates or declines, in the United States and in Europe. How should we interpret these trends? Debt is in bad shape, especially its premium component, US Federal debt, due to Trump's budget deficit, which is becoming increasingly difficult to finance — we've talked about it. And real estate is a debt market — most acquisitions are made on credit — which suffers when rates ri... Thu, 24 Jul 2025 05:45:19 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/gold-soon-flippening-us-debt-3571 Some pro-bitcoin people claim that crypto will downgrade and absorb gold to become the sole store of value in the future. I've never bought into this scenario. How can we seriously envisage that gold — recognized, hoarded since the earliest civilizations, and which has proved its autonomy and value, notably since the end of its convertibility with the dollar on August 15, 1971 — could one day be worth nothing? Wouldn't the two assets instead complement each other? That's the question raised by a research note from French company Kaiko, which specializes in aggregating data from cryptocurrency exchange platforms (“the Bloomberg of crypto”). It takes us a step further in a line of thinking we've already begun. The author of this note, Adam Morgan McCarthy, highlights the strong demand for these two assets in recent months — as evidenced by the rise in their prices — as well as their low correlation, both with each other and with equity markets.... Thu, 12 Jun 2025 05:28:30 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/bitcoin-gold-complementing-competing-assets-3554 Are we on the eve of a bond market explosion, the beginning of the story being the end of convertibility between the dollar and gold announced by Richard Nixon on August 15, 1971? It was following this decision, combined with the explosion in budget deficits triggered by the first oil crash, that governments began to apply for ratings from specialized agencies. Initially, all received the highest rating, the famous AAA, as the idea of a country going bankrupt seemed unthinkable at the time. Since then, the majority of countries — including the USA — have had their ratings downgraded, while public debt has reached dizzying levels. But after all, there's no need to worry — a government doesn't have to pay back its debts! But this very market is cracking. Even when you have the world's reference currency — both for reserves and for transactions — and no credible alternative is emerging, and you are the world's leading economic power, there comes a time... Thu, 29 May 2025 05:37:55 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/heading-for-explosion-usa-global-bond-markets-3546 Yet another kidnapping attempt in Paris, in broad daylight, targeting a person connected to the cryptocurrency world. Fortunately, it was cut short. This brings to mind the case of David Balland, the co-founder of Ledger, who was held captive with his wife to demand a ransom from his friend Éric Larchevêque. The police finally managed to free them and freeze the funds. This is already the fifth case of this kind in France since the beginning of the year... Does this type of threat only concern cryptocurrencies? No, of course not. All valuable assets are in the crosshairs of organized crime, especially easily transportable real assets. Demanding a bank transfer obviously makes no sense to kidnappers, who would reveal their details and see the money blocked: the bank regains an advantage here, punctually. On the other hand, a masterpiece, jewels, luxury watches, a Ledger key containing cryptos, or even gold bars can easily be taken during a robbery, or extorted by force i... Thu, 15 May 2025 05:46:03 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/theft-homejacking-kidnapping-ransom-bitcoins-gold-how-protect-yourself-3540 While Spain, Portugal and Italy are pulling out of their massive public deficits — Italy's public deficit has been cut from 8% of GDP in 2022 to 3.4% in 2024 — France continues to sink and is now Europe's sick man. The "Club Med" countries, which we once looked down on, have now overtaken us. France is on the podium for public deficit (5.8% of GDP, no. 1 in the EU), public spending (57.1% of GDP, no. 2), public revenue (51.3% of GDP, no. 3) and public debt (113.0% of GDP, no. 3), according to the website Fipeco. And so: expenditure (57.1%) - revenue (51.3%) = deficit (5.8%). Just to clarify: we're talking here about "public revenues" (51.3% of GDP), which include compulsory levies (taxes, social security contributions, levies in the strict sense of the term) plus "non-compulsory revenues", which are: Dividends from companies in which the government holds a stake (Banque de France, Airbus, Engie, Safran, Thales, FDJ, Rena... Thu, 01 May 2025 05:40:19 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/france-staggering-figures-state-burden-3535 The idea of companies investing part of their cash in bitcoins is becoming more and more widespread, even if few actually take the plunge. Surprisingly, however, gold, which is far more widely recognized and accepted, does not enjoy comparable publicity. Why is this? Clearly, business leaders are extremely reluctant to invest part of their cash in physical gold or bitcoin, rather than in the financial products offered by their banks. It's the weight of habit, the inertia of behavior. It's about time we woke up, however, at a time when these two assets are performing well - with the price of gold outperforming that of bitcoin since the beginning of the year. There's no point in hoarding hard-earned money if it's going to be eaten up by inflation! But protection against rising prices isn't the only advantage of gold and BTC. They also offer genuine diversification, thanks to their low correlation with traditional assets. They also offer protectio... Thu, 17 Apr 2025 05:42:12 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/need-investing-gold-corporate-treasuries-3526 While the gold price is breaking records and has just passed the symbolic threshold of $3,000 an ounce, bitcoin is struggling and looking for its second wind. Rarely has such a marked divergence been observed. Since December 2024, bitcoin has lost 30% of its value against gold. How can such a gap be explained in such a short space of time? Calling bitcoin “digital gold” is clearly too simplistic, as the two assets have different dynamics. How should they be valued? We need to distinguish between two concepts that tend to be confused: store of value and safe haven. Gold and bitcoin are stores of value insofar as they enable us to store value over time, even to increase it, and thus protect ourselves against inflation and the devaluation of fiat currencies. This is true for the long term. Whereas a safe-haven asset offers protection in the event of a crisis or geopolitical tensions, gold is ideal for fulfilling this function, whereas bitcoin is far too volatile (Hasheur’... Thu, 03 Apr 2025 05:47:36 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/why-divergence-between-gold-and-bitcoin-3522 There is an argument against buying gold that really ticks me off (and the same goes for bitcoin): it offers no return, no interest and no dividend, unlike conventional investments (stocks, bonds, life insurance, bank savings accounts, rental property). It would be a second-rate asset, imperfect and mutilated. We'd be completely dependent on its price, with no guarantee of future income. It's preposterous. When we compare different types of investment, we need to take into account the overall return: the rise in the share price and the returns paid out, together. We've already discussed this work here. The benchmark study, updated in 2024, reveals that since 1999, the Livret A savings account has returned 1.83% a year (less than inflation), life insurance 3.09% (barely inflation), the stock market 4.40% (CAC 40, dividends reinvested) and gold 8.69%. These figures are unequivocal. The question is: how can we organize ourselves to make the most of it and,... Thu, 06 Feb 2025 06:48:22 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/gold-lack-yield-false-problem-3492