Thomas Andrieu https://goldbroker.com/author/thomas-andrieu Since January 1, the price of gold has posted a steady gain of ~4,5%. After reaching an initial peak in late January, the precious metal has been attempting to enter a new sustained uptrend, targeting $5,500. However, geopolitical tensions related to the war in Iran have reignited inflation fears, leading to a rise in interest rates and reviving the risk of recession. Furthermore, the decline in open positions observed since October — and even more sharply at the end of February — suggested a consolidation phase for the price of gold. The question now is whether a rebound can begin and, if so, to assess its magnitude. While some banks maintain expectations of prices exceeding $6,000 per ounce, and following gold’s spectacular rise in 2025, should we expect this super-cycle trend to continue? Is the current consolidation merely a short-term adjustment, or does it signal a more structural shift? A technical consolidation An analysis of open positions since the end of... Wed, 01 Apr 2026 05:15:56 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/war-gold-supercycle-3689 The conflict in Iran reminds us that the world has truly entered a new era. The upcoming meeting between China and the United States in April seems, more than ever, to crystallize growing geopolitical tensions. The recurrence of wars is accompanied by persistent inflationary risks and a profound redefinition of global balances. Faced with the shock caused by the war in Iran, should we expect a return of inflation? How might financial markets and gold prices react? Will the dollar manage to maintain its position, and how far could the economic consequences extend? We analyze the ongoing shock. Could inflation start rising again? Despite technological advances in recent decades, our economies remain largely dependent on hydrocarbons. Since the 1990s, for example, we have seen that the impact of oil prices on inflation is strongest around two months after a rise in the price per barrel. A sustained rise in oil prices, which have increased by nearly 40% over the past yea... Tue, 10 Mar 2026 06:15:42 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/gold-heart-new-world-disorder-3684 In his book L’or des Français (The Gold of the French), published in 2024, Yannick Colleu offers a reinterpretation of the actual gold reserves held by the French. Between wars, demonetization, exports, and resales, the actual gold reserves held by the French remain unknown. Nevertheless, some estimates can be made based on the main events that have contributed to the evolution of gold reserves over more than two centuries. While the French have purchased nearly 240 tons of gold over the past 15 years, barely 9% of these purchases were in the form of coins and ingots, according to the World Gold Council. In fact, the French were even sellers of investment gold in 2024. Furthermore, the French appetite for gold remains moderate, with their German and British neighbors demanding up to 2.5 times more. In this context, how can we define and estimate the French gold stock to date? I had already published an article on the subject a few years ago, but this one proposes to ta... Tue, 17 Feb 2026 06:20:19 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/true-amount-gold-held-by-french-3666 Friday, January 30, 2026, will go down as a landmark date in the gold and silver markets. Both metals recorded their sharpest daily swing since at least the 1980s, bringing several weeks of intense speculation to an abrupt end. What happened, how can such a movement be explained, and what does it reveal about the outlook for the stock markets? Gold closed down more than 8%, while silver fell more than 25%, illustrating a violent unwinding of speculative positions. Despite this sharp correction, both metals are still showing a clearly positive performance since the beginning of the year, with gold up 12.5% and silver up nearly 60%. The explosion in volatility forced COMEX to raise margin requirements, while the price gap with Asian markets widened significantly. The simultaneous rebound in the dollar and oil prices, combined with increased uncertainty in the equity markets, suggests a pause in the prevailing optimism and a renewed caution among investors regarding... Tue, 03 Feb 2026 06:10:59 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/historic-decline-gold-silver-prices-amid-stock-market-uncertainty-3667 In 2025, silver recorded its best performance since 1979, significantly outperforming gold and most other asset classes. With an increase of nearly +150%, the grey metal made its most spectacular comeback since the 1970s. The decline in demand for physical silver was more than offset by strong growth in investment demand, while silver production is struggling to grow amid a persistent structural deficit, despite improved production conditions. While the silver price has surpassed its previous record high in 2011 and posted a revaluation against gold not seen since 2013, the market remains plagued by contradictory signals in the medium term. How can we explain the evolution of silver in 2025, and is this dynamic likely to continue? Silver up 150% in 2025 Neglected for the past decade in favor of gold, silver now seems to be catching up. This growth is the result of a combination of cyclical and structural factors: First, the increase observed in 2025 confirms the up... Tue, 13 Jan 2026 06:12:09 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/outlook-2026-silver-return-strategic-metal-3655 In 2025, gold posted its strongest performance since 1979. This momentum marks a structural turning point for the gold market, which has significantly exceeded its usual historical behavior and is now entering a new dimension. While 2025 was buoyed by gold investors, easing interest rates, and the overall rise in financial markets, 2026 is beginning with new questions. Interest rates could continue to fall, but to a lesser extent. In addition, investment demand remains dependent on market sentiment, while central banks and jewelers are curbing their purchases. How should we approach this new era for gold? And is this momentum set to continue into 2026? 2025: an extraordinary year! 2025 exceeded all expectations. For the third consecutive year, gold rose by more than 10%. In 2025, the gold price in dollars posted a performance of +65%. This is its strongest increase since 1979. These performances illustrate the truly exceptional nature of this year's momentum. U... Tue, 06 Jan 2026 06:12:49 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/outlook-2026-gold-enters-new-era-3651 Some investors choose to defer their investment in gold, arguing that gold is “too expensive.” This argument can be viewed from two angles. On the one hand, it is clear that gold is “expensive” in absolute terms: its rarity and special status make it an inherently expensive asset. This is unlikely to ever change. On the other hand, considering gold to be “too expensive” relative to other assets or its potential for growth is more debatable. The gold price depends on solid long-term fundamentals and a complex set of shorter-term factors. It is also true that certain periods give rise to significant corrections in the price of gold, historically opening up major windows of opportunity. This article therefore aims to measure the opportunity cost incurred by an investor who decides to delay investing in gold. Gold: an asset with long cycles Gold offers a risk/return ratio comparable to that of the major global stock indices. However, its price behavior differs significan... Thu, 31 Jul 2025 07:20:20 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/gold-really-too-expensive-3570 While gold has been the big winner in recent years, many other metals are now becoming increasingly scarce. Rising demand for metals is mainly driven by the energy transition (electric vehicles, photovoltaic panels), electronics, data centers, artificial intelligence and communications networks. At the same time, the growing difficulties associated with mining production, whether due to geopolitical, environmental or technical constraints, are fuelling a structural deficit between supply and demand, exerting sustained upward pressure on prices. Over the past five years, silver, platinum and copper prices have risen by +110%, +26% and +70% respectively. These performances have common causes: growing industrial needs and production that is struggling to keep pace. Growing demand for these metals is thus leading to a structural readjustment of the market. Let's take a look at the fundamentals of a market under pressure, and the outlook for the coming years. Increasi... Tue, 08 Jul 2025 05:34:48 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/silver-platinum-copper-great-return-metals-3561 Gold generates no income: no dividend, no rent, no interest. Yet its value remains less volatile than that of many financial assets. Most analysts struggle to explain the mechanisms that determine its price over the long term. While the influence of gold demand is obvious in the short to medium term, it is not sufficient to justify the maintenance of these price levels over time. This question is rarely addressed in its entirety, which fuels misunderstandings about the mechanisms involved in determining the price of gold. With nearly 80% of the metal supply coming from mining, the cost of production appears to be the determining variable in market valuation. This cost conditions the profitability of mining companies, influences the metal's floor price and can even affect the decisions of investors and central banks. This article explores the effects of the major determinant of the price of gold. Stable purchasing power of gold Between 1900 and 2000, the price of... Wed, 28 May 2025 05:23:07 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/only-real-determinant-price-gold-3545 Since the crisis in 2020, the US stock market has grown at a sustained rate of +20% per year. Since 2022, this rise has been further accentuated by the rise of artificial intelligence, generating an increase of more than 50% over the last two years. Despite the momentum of innovation and continued growth in the US, the strength of this bull market is raising questions. Asset managers, who hold historically low levels of cash in their portfolios, also consider the market to be overvalued. Is it not finally time, as so often in history, to take a break? While some banks remain confident, fund managers are adopting a more cautious attitude. This article explores the fundamental and cyclical factors that help us analyze the state of financial markets at the start of 2025. Towards a post-presidential correction? One of the dominant cycles in the stock market is the famous “presidential cycle”. This cycle roughly corresponds to the length of a presidential term in the Unit... Wed, 26 Feb 2025 06:43:56 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/stock-market-the-end-bullish-cycle-3503 For the third year running, our forecasts for the price of gold have come true. In December 2023, we pointed out that “the average trend in the price of gold at this stage of the cycle suggests the possibility of a potentially high-performance impulsive upward movement (up to +30% within 12 months)”. Over the year 2024, the price of gold has in fact climbed by almost 30%... a performance unmatched for almost 15 years! This forecast is remarkable in several respects. On the one hand, very few banks had anticipated such a surge in the price of gold. And secondly, forecasting such impulsive movements is often subject to uncertainty and volatility. Yet 2024 has confirmed the regularity of gold price cycles. The year 2025 is proving just as strategic. Visibility on the fundamentals of the price of gold remains good. However, structural changes are taking place in the market, with overall investment demand on the rise and the importance of future macroeconomic dynamics. Wh... Wed, 01 Jan 2025 07:32:05 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/how-will-gold-perform-forecast-2025-3472 When did gold first appear? What role did it play in the emergence of civilizations? Gold occupies a central place in modern history and, more generally, in the history of mankind. Recent archaeological discoveries have challenged our understanding of the origins of gold in our societies. Gold seems to have appeared with the first cities, hence its title of “first metal”. Gold's appearance predates that of iron by several millennia, and coincides approximately with that of copper. It has also been established that the precious metal was used by certain civilizations even before the birth of writing. Indeed, writing was partly developed to record loans granted in the form of gold. The history of gold never ceases to amaze, to the point where we may well wonder whether it played a fundamental role in the formation of civilizations... A return to the origins of the eternal metal. The etymological origins of gold The chemical symbol for gold is AU, taken from the La... Tue, 15 Oct 2024 06:36:01 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/gold-ancestor-writing-return-origins-eternal-metal-3424 If gold were a stock, it would be the world's largest market capitalization, with the highest trading volume! Gold is world-renowned for its physical properties, but it is also in great demand for its financial qualities. Most of the world's major asset managers and central banks hold gold, while a large proportion of the public remains unaware of the benefits of the golden metal. In financial theory, gold appears to be indispensable for portfolio diversification. However, its appeals varies from person to person. So, how much gold should you have in your portfolio? 5%, 10%, 15%, 20% or even 40%? Do the massive gold purchases by central banks and other investors confirm the benefits of owning gold? Gold, a unique asset What is the advantage of owning an asset that provides no rent, interest or dividends? Unlike many investments, gold is defined by its extreme simplicity, which makes it a legal and financial asset. Unlike shares or financial investments,... Tue, 10 Sep 2024 05:40:23 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/gold-way-optimize-your-savings-3385 Is gold still the foundation of our monetary system? This question is worth asking as central banks accumulate record quantities of the golden metal. In fact, a detailed study of central bank gold inventories reveals a certain consistency in the monetary strategy of most countries. Gold, with a certain degree of sensitivity, still appears to be the monetary "base of the base". The counterpart of "hard" money, the heart of the monetary engine. Despite the end of the gold standard in 1971, and the explosion in the quantity of money in circulation, gold appears with disturbing constancy in the news and in the balance sheets of central banks. The eternal metal seems to make up for the shortcomings of contemporary money, in an age of inflation and geopolitical upheaval. We live in a monetary system that does not reveal its true nature, as if it were free of everything and above all free not to reveal its foundations. Gold on central bank balance sheets... Tue, 30 Jul 2024 05:32:05 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/gold-central-currency-does-not-say-its-name-3366 In 2023, our outlook for silver suggested a bullish recovery for 2023 and 2024: "The average silver price is expected to fall slightly in 2023 (to $21.30). However, this does not seem completely consistent to us, and other scenarios could be considered. Technically, the trend remains bullish despite numerous resistances. Moreover, market strength still favors gold over silver. A sustained move above $26 an ounce would trigger strong bullish potential. Otherwise, we can expect a lateral move. The bearish scenario being sui generis less likely." In 2024, with almost one in five ounces now dedicated to the photovoltaic industry, tensions on the silver market are mounting: silver shortages due to growing demand and limits on production capacity, significant increases in production costs, etc. Against this backdrop, the price of the grey metal would be headed for good prospects. While the breakout from the $26/oz level has now been confirmed, analysis of the behavi... Tue, 28 May 2024 05:44:17 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/historic-tensions-silver-market-3346 France is known for having the 4th largest stock of gold in the world, even though the country ranks 23rd in wealth per capita. In fact, over 2,400 tons of gold, or €146 billion at €60,000/kg, are stored in the vaults at 39 Rue Croix des Petits Champs in Paris. But do the French own so much gold privately? In the home, gold takes many forms: coins and bars, jewellery, but also technology. While the French seem to be investing more and more in gold since 2019, demand for gold for jewellery has been sluggish in France in recent years. Even so, it appears that the French are at the head of a small, historic treasure trove. Between 40 and 75 grams of gold per French person? Under the gold standard, the French were systematically exposed to the yellow metal. But since the end of the 20th century, French savings have been proportionally less exposed to gold, since it's up to each individual to determine his or her exposure to precious metals. Nevertheless, what is th... Tue, 16 Apr 2024 05:32:12 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/how-much-gold-french-own-3265 In a January 2024 publication, JP Morgan unveiled its outlook for the gold price. The world's leading bank, with a market capitalization of over $500 billion, stated that “a cutting cycle is expected to be positive for bullion and supportive of a rally in prices in the second half of 2024”. As gold settles at all-time highs, the prospect of a gold comeback takes hold... JP Morgan optimistic about gold prices JP Morgan is optimistic about commodities, and in particular, “for the second consecutive year, the only structural bullish call we hold is for gold and silver”. JP Morgan's bullish arguments in favour of precious metals are essentially based on monetary policy: “Commodities are unlikely to benefit from core inflation in 2024. Inflation should fall to under 3%, so that, along with properly timing the business cycle, are the two conditions needed to initiate long positions, making the outlook for the sector very tactical in 2024”, said Natasha Kaneva,... Tue, 19 Mar 2024 06:45:42 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/jpmorgan-forecasts-gold-price-2500-dollars-3305 In 2022, our study of the gold market allowed us to "expect that, on average, the gold price will perform around 10% in 2023". This prospect suggested that, by the end of 2023, the price of gold would most likely be close to its all-time highs. At the end of December 2023, gold had risen by around 12% year-on-year to stand at around $2000 an ounce (or €1850 an ounce)... Flirting with historic highs is always a thrill for the public. Today, visibility on the fundamentals of the gold price is as good as ever. It is therefore timely for us to set out our outlook for 2024 in more detail. Of course, this task is always made difficult by a seemingly unstable and disorderly economic climate. Thus, the evolution of the gold price in 2024 will be influenced by four major factors: Dollar strength and inflation levels; Interest rates and the outlook for equity markets; Gold mining companies' production conditions; Gold price cycles versus current price. An... Mon, 01 Jan 2024 06:31:24 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/2024-outlook-gold-heading-towards-new-peaks-3253 Is the price of gold linked to other markets? Conversely, is the price of gold independent of market trends? This question is all the more important as gold is often perceived as a "safe-haven" asset, capable of behaving independently of other markets. In this paper, we will focus on the short-term, medium-term and long-term correlations of the gold price with other markets. Gold's long-term correlation with the markets To begin our discussion, we have calculated the correlation matrix over the last five years (2018-2023) between the price of gold (GC=F), of the S&P 500 (GSPC), the CAC 40 (FCHI), the dollar (USDT) and bitcoin (BTC). A correlation coefficient close to -1 or +1 means that the two assets evolve symmetrically, while a coefficient whose value is close to 0 implies no link between the two assets. We're talking here about the price in dollars. In the case of gold, the price of the yellow metal has a long-term correlation o... Tue, 07 Nov 2023 06:33:11 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/price-gold-correlated-markets-3218 In this article, we analyze gold's monthly performance. First of all, it appears that "minimal" monthly variations account for the vast majority of gold price variations. In other words, most of the time, the price of gold follows a channelled, low-volatility pattern. However, this stability of the gold price with minimal variations does not explain the performance observed over the long term. The answer surely lies in "extreme" variations in the gold price. Extreme variations do indeed provide an explanation for the rise in gold prices over the long term. Consequently, the data studied clearly show that gold must be a permanent hedge in an investor's strategy. Gold's performance over the past 45 years Over half a century, the price of gold has shown enough regularities and trends to provide a clear picture of its behavior. Here, we look at gold's monthly performance between 1978 and 2023. As we can see, the price of gold perfo... Tue, 10 Oct 2023 05:42:57 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/ten-percent-time-would-explain-golds-performance-3188