News https://goldbroker.com/news At first glance, the latest inflation figures suggest a resurgence of inflationary pressure. Producer prices rose by 0.5% over the month, bringing the annual rate to 4.0%. Against an already tense backdrop in the energy sector, figures like these are enough to fuel the narrative that inflation is on the rise again. But here again, the reality is more nuanced — and even more troubling. First, these figures actually fell short of market expectations. The consensus forecast had predicted a monthly increase of +1.1%, more than double the reported figure. Year-over-year, prices rose by +4.0%, an increase, but well below the expected +4.6%. Even more telling, core inflation (excluding food and energy) rose by only +0.1% over the month, compared to the anticipated +0.4%, bringing the annual rate down to +3.8%. In other words, the feared inflationary shock — particularly linked to geopolitical tensions and energy — has not yet fully materialized in the aggregate data.... Fri, 17 Apr 2026 05:15:17 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/return-stagflation-propelling-gold-into-new-era-3700 Oil has been on a tear this year, near $120 last month, on what most would likely attribute to hostilities in Iran and a battle to control the Strait of Hormuz. While there is no doubt that the geopolitical backdrop has provided fuel for this run (pun intended), my readers also know that current events have served as nothing more than a match to light a fuse that had been set within the price charts long, long ago. This week, we'll start with a quarterly chart of oil that looks at about the last 25 years of price action. The 17-year wedge is very well defined. After a false breakdown of the oil price during the Covid lows in 2020, my readers know that it then became only a matter of time for an upside wedge breakout. After breaking out of the 17-year wedge, price then formed a very clean 5-year bull flag. Again, as we watched the flag form, we knew again that it was only a matter of time before we would see a big breakout, which we did last quarter. Taken as a whol... Tue, 14 Apr 2026 12:12:00 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/oil-long-way-to-run-silver-outperform-3699 The oil market is currently focusing on the wrong metrics. As is often the case during periods of transition, attention is centered on visible volumes — the so-called “lost barrels” — while the true disruptive factor lies elsewhere, far more insidious: time. As long as the disruption is perceived as short-lived, the system remains stable. Prices adjust, flows reorganize, and market participants bide their time. But as soon as the outlook becomes unclear, and the duration of the disruption ceases to be manageable, the nature of the problem changes. We are no longer talking about a tight market, but about a system that is beginning to crack. Last night, in fact, gave the market the opposite illusion. In just a few hours, oil prices plummeted by nearly 20%, triggered by a political sequence — a message from Trump referring to “constructive” discussions, followed by a verbal agreement for a 15-day ceasefire. The market immediately interpreted this as a de-escalatio... Fri, 10 Apr 2026 05:15:28 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/silver-oil-abrupt-return-to-reality-3698 A two-week ceasefire has just been signed between the United States and Iran. The agreement appears fragile — we’ll have to wait and see — and the risk of a resurgence in inflation remains, particularly in Europe. In a statement released on April 5, OPEC+ warned that repairing the energy infrastructure damaged in recent attacks would be “costly” and take “a long time,” which could have a lasting impact on global oil supplies. Even though several countries have announced an increase in their production quotas, the impact will be limited. For its part, the International Energy Agency (IEA) emphasizes, in an analysis dated March 21, that disruptions to oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz, as well as attacks on energy infrastructure in the region, constitute “the greatest threat to global energy security in history.” In 2025, approximately 25% of global maritime oil trade passed through this strategic waterway, for which alternatives remain limited. Although eme... Thu, 09 Apr 2026 05:35:12 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/inflation-gold-already-anticipating-3696 The year 2026 is expected to mark the end of an era. The intervention in Venezuela was presented as an operation to combat drug trafficking; the war in Iran, as a preventive measure. At the heart of both conflicts lies a double standard that has been in place for over half a century. This imbalance is coming to an end, taking with it a world order that has run its course. And as the conflict drags on, the dilemma facing the U.S. central bank is fast approaching, with the risk of a collapse of the financial system. For several months now, de-dollarization has been advancing at a rapid pace. Central banks now hold more gold than dollars in their reserves, and a growing number of major powers are deciding to sell their U.S. bonds. As the dollar enters its final crisis in the face of debt that has spiraled out of control, Iran is emerging more than ever as a direct enemy of the United States. Since the 1979 religious revolution and repeated Western sanctions against the cou... Thu, 09 Apr 2026 05:15:46 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/war-iran-accelerating-de-dollarization-rising-financial-risk-3697 The Bank of France (BdF) has quietly completed the repatriation of French gold still held in the United States, bringing to an end nearly a century of partial storage abroad. The operation covered 129 tonnes of precious metal — around 5% of the country’s total reserves — previously held at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Rather than physically transporting the gold bars to France, the institution opted for a more efficient financial solution. Between July 2025 and January 2026, it sold older bars that no longer met current international standards, before purchasing modern, standard-compliant bullion in Europe. The newly acquired gold has since been stored in the Bank of France’s vaults in Paris. This strategy allowed the central bank to avoid the costs and logistical constraints associated with refining and transatlantic transportation. It forms part of a broader reserve modernization program launched around two decades ago and reinforced by a 2024 internal audit... Tue, 07 Apr 2026 11:35:22 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/bank-france-repatriates-gold-usa-secures-13-billion-euros-gain-3695 The oil market is entering a phase where volatility is no longer a mere hiccup but a direct consequence of its structure. Recent price movements — both sharp and contradictory — do not reflect a linear improvement or deterioration in fundamentals, but rather a growing inability of prices to simultaneously reflect both physical realities and financial dynamics. On one hand, the physical market is sending signals of tension rarely seen before. The spread between spot Brent and futures contracts — the Dated-to-Frontline spread — has skyrocketed, indicating that buyers are willing to pay a significant premium to secure oil available here and now. This physical premium, which is approaching the extreme levels seen during previous energy crises, reflects a simple reality: oil exists on paper, but it is becoming difficult to obtain in the real world. This tension is consistent with the documented deterioration of energy infrastructure in the Middle East. More than fo... Fri, 03 Apr 2026 07:10:53 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/oil-unreadable-gold-unavoidable-3693 Since January 1, the price of gold has posted a steady gain of ~4,5%. After reaching an initial peak in late January, the precious metal has been attempting to enter a new sustained uptrend, targeting $5,500. However, geopolitical tensions related to the war in Iran have reignited inflation fears, leading to a rise in interest rates and reviving the risk of recession. Furthermore, the decline in open positions observed since October — and even more sharply at the end of February — suggested a consolidation phase for the price of gold. The question now is whether a rebound can begin and, if so, to assess its magnitude. While some banks maintain expectations of prices exceeding $6,000 per ounce, and following gold’s spectacular rise in 2025, should we expect this super-cycle trend to continue? Is the current consolidation merely a short-term adjustment, or does it signal a more structural shift? A technical consolidation An analysis of open positions since the end of... Wed, 01 Apr 2026 05:15:56 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/war-gold-supercycle-3689 Last week, we looked at a couple of charts that suggested the current pullback in precious metals may have another leg down before we can begin looking higher. We're in a vicious pullback that is sure to test the resolve of even the most hardened metals bulls. This week, we'll take a broader look at three ratio charts that must go the way of the bulls if the metals are to see that next leg higher. The first chart is a ratio of the Dow Jones Industrial Average to gold and is indeed the most promising. The 100-year chart shows a clear pattern of big secular runs higher in the ratio before transitioning into waterfall declines that break multi-decade support. These waterfall declines have accompanied very big bull markets in gold with the 1970s bull being most notable. The ratio just broke down from 45-year support last year, a strong signal that the secular bull run in gold that began in 2001 had an impulsive multi-year run ahead of it. Based solely on this char... Tue, 31 Mar 2026 05:25:03 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/gold-silver-bull-markets-rest-three-charts-3692 The crack is no longer theoretical; it is becoming a reality — and, as is often the case, the markets are looking the other way. Apollo Global Management has just capped redemptions on one of its main private credit funds, after redemption requests exceeded 11% of assets under management. In practical terms, investors are only recovering about 45% of the amounts requested. The remainder remains frozen, deferred, or suspended within a structure that was previously presented as a relatively liquid alternative to traditional credit. The trend is spreading. Ares Management has in turn limited redemptions on a $10.7 billion fund, according to the Financial Times. Cliffwater is facing 14% in redemption requests and is capping them at 7%. Morgan Stanley is receiving 10.9% and capping redemptions at 5%. BlackRock, at 9.3%, is also capped at 5%. Everywhere, the same pattern is emerging: outflows exceeding actual liquidity capacity. And as liquidity dries up, credit quality is... Fri, 27 Mar 2026 06:15:38 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/latent-bank-run-private-credit-forced-sales-gold-3691 Last week, I showed you that Gold/Euro had recently completed an historic measured move that was 20-years in the making. This week, we'll return to gold and silver in dollars but continue to analyze the recent blowoff moves and why a retrace/consolidation is to be expected before the next major leg higher. We'll start with gold, which I have defined as a 53-year bull channel. The last couple of years has seen an impulsive quarterly advance and even a candle wick above the upper rail of the channel before being repelled from what is naturally expected to be very stiff resistance. Gold is prone to 20%-30% pullbacks during even the most aggressive bull cycles, so one of that magnitude certainly would not surprise here. A short-term move toward $4,000 and even below cannot be ruled out. It would certainly reset sentiment and would actually be quite healthy behavior if we expect gold to move significantly higher from here. However, the fascinating thing about this... Tue, 24 Mar 2026 06:30:32 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/gold-silver-bull-markets-get-wild-3688 Warning signs are piling up, but the markets continue to ignore what is unfolding deep within the global supply chain. The breaking point now lies in the Middle East. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global energy trade, has deteriorated sharply. It is now part of a widespread military escalation that directly affects critical infrastructure. The island of Kharg — the logistical hub of Iranian oil exports — has been bombed. This is far from a minor incident. Kharg accounts for between 85% and 95% of Iranian crude exports, making it a true single point of transit for the entire national production. The island is connected by pipeline to most major onshore and offshore fields and has infrastructure capable of simultaneously loading several supertankers in deep water — an advantage the rest of Iran’s coastline lacks. In other words, Kharg is not merely a strategic infrastructure: it is a true single point of failure in the energy system. Signif... Thu, 19 Mar 2026 06:15:37 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/gold-accumulating-energy-market-neutralizing-real-risk-3687 You may recall the period following the 2008 systemic crash and the attempts to implement the Dodd-Frank rules to regulate banks. At the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission), the regulator of commodity futures markets, a team of "incorruptibles" was assembled. The task was particularly difficult: a CFTC official earned on average barely more than $3,000, and at best $4,000, while facing extremely powerful banks that regularly manipulated the precious metals market. These banks amassed millions of dollars and didn't hesitate to try to influence those who sought to obstruct them. At the time, Bart Chilton, one of the five commissioners of the CFTC, made commendable efforts to expose price manipulation by these dominant banks acting in concert. He unfortunately passed away following an illness. Under his authority, twenty prosecutors were tasked with enforcing the law. As of today, none remain; the last one resigned on Monday, February 23. COMEX is o... Tue, 17 Mar 2026 06:30:10 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/end-western-hegemony-over-price-gold-silver-3682 The current situation on the oil market borders on the absurd. Maritime traffic data shows a sharp decline in traffic in the Strait of Hormuz: Within a few days, the number of ships entering and leaving this energy corridor had virtually come to a standstill: Bulk carriers, huge cargo ships that transport bulk goods such as iron ore, coal, and grain, and tankers, which carry crude oil and petroleum products, are the two main types of ships that typically pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Under normal circumstances, dozens of ships, sometimes more than a hundred, pass through this particularly narrow maritime corridor every day. It is the main outlet for oil produced in the Persian Gulf to Asia, Europe, and America. However, in recent days, maritime tracking data has shown a sharp decline in these flows. Several bulk carriers have left the area, while some ships linked to Iran are also withdrawing from normal traffic. Above all, the major shipping comp... Fri, 13 Mar 2026 06:05:24 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/extreme-volatility-oil-calm-gold-3686 In just a few days, the global geopolitical and economic situation has suddenly become tense. The attack by the United States and Israel on Iran on February 28 caused a sharp rise in oil prices and reignited fears of inflation. Shortly after hostilities broke out, Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a quarter of the world's oil passes. As a result, the price per barrel briefly exceeded $100, a 50% increase from its pre-conflict level. We are familiar with oil crises: they are usually accompanied by inflation and recession. But in this case, the particular context of the conflict amplifies the threats. Natural gas, particularly LNG, is also affected by the halt in maritime traffic: its price is soaring and the risk of shortages can no longer be ruled out. Geopolitically, it is mainly China that depends on Iranian oil. Beijing has already banned certain fuel exports, a clear sign of the ongoing tensions. Another serious consequence is that around... Thu, 12 Mar 2026 06:15:04 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/another-oil-shock-another-financial-crisis-3685 The conflict in Iran reminds us that the world has truly entered a new era. The upcoming meeting between China and the United States in April seems, more than ever, to crystallize growing geopolitical tensions. The recurrence of wars is accompanied by persistent inflationary risks and a profound redefinition of global balances. Faced with the shock caused by the war in Iran, should we expect a return of inflation? How might financial markets and gold prices react? Will the dollar manage to maintain its position, and how far could the economic consequences extend? We analyze the ongoing shock. Could inflation start rising again? Despite technological advances in recent decades, our economies remain largely dependent on hydrocarbons. Since the 1990s, for example, we have seen that the impact of oil prices on inflation is strongest around two months after a rise in the price per barrel. A sustained rise in oil prices, which have increased by nearly 40% over the past yea... Tue, 10 Mar 2026 06:15:42 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/gold-heart-new-world-disorder-3684 The sharp fall in the share price of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Japan's second-largest bank, following the revelation of its exposure to the British company Market Financial Solutions (MFS), may at first glance appear to be an isolated incident. On March 3, the stock lost more than 10%: However, this is probably a broader signal about the state of global credit. MFS was a real estate lender specializing in rapid short-term financing, known as bridge financing. In concrete terms, these companies lend funds to real estate developers who need immediate liquidity to acquire an asset or launch a project, pending subsequent refinancing via a bank or the bond markets. This model works very well when real estate prices are rising and credit remains abundant. However, when interest rates rise or liquidity becomes scarce, it becomes much more fragile. This is because it relies on short-term financing to support assets that are often riskier and relatively illi... Fri, 06 Mar 2026 07:45:36 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/credit-under-pressure-euphoric-markets-gold-remains-vigilant-3683 The illusion of a transatlantic alliance is crumbling day by day. As threats to European countries multiply, Donald Trump is simply repeating what the United States has always done: dividing Europe without breaking the alliance, in order to maintain its hold. But this time, European countries seem to be acknowledging their dependence. The majority of Europeans now believe that the United States can no longer be considered a reliable ally. However, this situation is nothing new: since World War II (and even before that under President Wilson), the United States has managed to impose a vassalage on the Old Continent. During the negotiations for the creation of the IMF and the World Bank, which brought the two sides together during the war, the United States was already threatening European countries by reducing their arms deliveries. The American victory at Bretton Woods in 1944 then confirmed this dependence, especially as it resulted a few years later in the signing of... Tue, 03 Mar 2026 07:30:54 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/europe-power-struggle-united-states-3679 This week we will look at both Gold/Euro and Silver/Euro and see what their similar chart structures might be telling us about the future direction of metals prices. The first is a 20-year chart of Gold/Euro that I have shown you before and have defined as a 20-year bull channel that just recently broke out last month. Here, we can see that price spent the month of February backtesting the channel, and the wick on the monthly candle certainly hints at further upside to come. What I want you to notice from this chart is that price achieved its measured move out of its 9-year arc nearly perfectly prior to this recent channel backtest. I have often said that price charts like symmetry, and an impulse move into a large structure is often reciprocated by an equal impulse move out of that structure. This brings us to the chart of Silver/Euro that looks quite similar to Gold/Euro with an impulse move into a massive arc, this one 14-years, followed by an impulse move ou... Mon, 02 Mar 2026 06:26:41 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/gold-prices-euro-completes-historic-measured-move-3681 What we are experiencing today goes beyond mere technological euphoria or fears of sector disruption. The AI cycle reveals a paradox: as intelligence becomes increasingly dematerialized, markets are rediscovering the value of the tangible. We are witnessing a double commoditization. By commoditization, we mean a process whereby a product or service, initially differentiated and offering high added value, gradually becomes interchangeable. Technological scarcity fades, differentiation diminishes, barriers to entry are reduced and, ultimately, pricing power erodes. What was once premium becomes standard; what was once strategic becomes accessible. Historically, commoditization has affected industries when innovation spreads faster than the ability to maintain competitive advantage. Computer hardware experienced this, then the cloud, then certain layers of software. Today, this phenomenon is simultaneously affecting two levels of Artificial Intelligence. On the one hand... Fri, 27 Feb 2026 06:20:56 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/why-gold-mining-stocks-outperforming-rest-market-3680