Otavio Costa https://goldbroker.com/news/authors/otavio-costa Tavi Costa (Crescat Capital) emphasizes the importance of identifying macroeconomic trends, particularly the growing shift towards hard assets like gold amidst global inflationary pressures and geopolitical changes. He points out the rising demand for commodities like copper and the underinvestment in precious metals, highlighting significant market opportunities in these sectors. Wed, 19 Jun 2024 17:38:10 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/new-gold-rush-3358 Michelle Makori, Lead Anchor and Editor-in-Chief at Kitco News, interviews Tavi Costa, Partner and Macro Strategist at Crescat Capital, who says that gold is at a critical inflection point. Costa warns of the coming hard landing and breaks down a number of key charts that reveal the real state of the U.S. economy. Costa also gives his gold price forecast, adding that big hedge funds are about to flock back to the precious metals space. Wed, 22 Nov 2023 22:06:41 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/gold-inflection-point-hard-landing-coming-3239 What an important chart to highlight. Despite the recent push toward new highs, gold remains severely under-allocated. In fact: 71% of advisors have little to no exposure to the metal (<1% of assets). Similar to how central banks continue to aggressively accumulate the metal, conventional investment portfolios have yet to take steps to enhance the quality of their defensive assets. Mon, 06 Nov 2023 06:31:48 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/gold-remains-severely-under-allocated-investment-portfolios-3224 The multitude of macro drivers supporting the onset of another gold cycle is truly remarkable. Amplified by the prevailing skepticism surrounding the metal, we are arguably experiencing the most important time in gold's history. The stars are aligning, and it appears to be only a matter of time until we see a major breakout from the recent triple-top formation. Thu, 15 Jun 2023 06:16:08 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/the-history-of-gold-cycles-3119 Investors often use the 1940s period as a compelling historical analogy to today given the severity of the current debt problem. However, there is one major distinction that is often ignored: During that time, the US dollar was effectively tied to gold prices, making the metal an unfeasible investment alternative. Today, with prices unpegged, it is highly probable that capital will divert away from US Treasuries and flow into gold. This becomes particularly crucial at a time when the government is about to issue a flood of debt instruments into the market after ultimately extending the debt limit. If the rationale for owning US Treasuries today is solely based on the premise that the system cannot endure substantially higher interest rates, then gold is a far superior choice. It’s a neutral asset with no counterparty risk that also carries centuries of credible history as a safe haven and monetary alternative. Tue, 23 May 2023 11:32:58 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/capital-will-divert-away-from-treasuries-flow-into-gold-3099 It is fascinating how the gold-to-S&P 500 ratio continues to track its historical performance once again after major distortions across the US Treasury curve. Our empirical analysis suggests that today's outperformance of precious metals relative to the overall equity market is still in its initial phase. To be precise: Going back to 1970, this ratio tends to appreciate on average by 72% for the next two years after the US Treasury curve inverts by more than 70%. This indicator officially flashed a warning signal in November 2022. As shown in the yellow line, note the strong acceleration in return initiating at the 8th-month mark, which would imply the end of July in today's scenario. Given how historically expensive financial assets are, particularly versus commodities and gold, it is highly probable that both legs of this trade could work, i.e. precious metals rise as equity markets fall. To recall, this was also the case during the 1973-4... Wed, 19 Apr 2023 05:39:40 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/gold-sp500-ratio-after-yield-curve-inversions-3072 Gold is about to reach record prices on a monthly basis. If historical correlations matter, it is hard to believe silver won't follow the same path. That alone would imply a 110% return from its current levels. Relative to M2 money supply, silver remains one of the cheapest tangible assets in markets today. If the current inflationary issues prove to be structural, we are likely entering a secular bull market for precious metals. Fri, 24 Mar 2023 12:34:33 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/silver-remains-one-cheapest-tangible-assets-markets-3051 Probably one of the most important new secular theses in global macro today. Gold is in the early stages of becoming the preferred asset among central banks looking to improve the quality of their international reserves. Very bullish for the metal. The BoJ news is incredibly relevant for gold long term. It adds to the question: Why should central banks accumulate sovereign bonds to their FX reserves? "Ever since the global financial crisis, gold has become a bit more interesting to central banks as a reserve asset. Unlike default-able sovereign bonds, gold has no counterparty risk if they custody it themselves, and over the long term it historically keeps up with inflation", Lyn Alden says. Gold as a % of their international reserves peaked at 74% in ‘80. It’s now less than 18%. Probably headed much higher. Tue, 20 Dec 2022 16:38:39 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/central-banks-gold-holdings-percentage-foreign-reserves-2955 Clay Finck chats with Tavi Costa about: Why he believes that now is the time to have exposure to hard assets like gold, silver, & commodities What the potential catalysts are for gold and silver How investors can think about the value of gold The one leading metric that’s most helpful to see where were at in gold and commodity cycles, and much more! Wed, 27 Apr 2022 10:18:37 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/is-now-time-to-own-gold-and-silver-2720 Market correlations changing drastically. Gold rising as global bonds collapse. Ultimately, central banks will be forced to improve the quality of international reserves in attempt to restore the credibility of fiat currencies. Gold will play a major role as a monetary asset. Don't forget what happened in the 70s: Nominal yields trended higher and gold followed along almost perfectly. Tue, 19 Apr 2022 17:02:19 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/gold-rising-as-global-bonds-collapse-2709 Game on. Strong move on the gold-to-S&P 500 ratio after retesting its recent breakout. This is an early move. Gold looks to be out of a bullish pennant and precious metals are ripe for a major move to the upside from here. Sat, 12 Feb 2022 18:15:03 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/strong-move-on-the-gold-sp500-ratio-2651 Bring it on. The gold-to-S&P 500 ratio looks to be breaking out from almost a two year-long downward trend. My 2 cents: This is beginning of a move, not the end of one. None of us own enough tangible assets. That's it. That's the tweet. — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) January 18, 2022 Tue, 18 Jan 2022 15:09:30 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/gold-sp500-ratio-looks-to-be-breaking-out-2621 Tavi Costa joins Wall Street Silver to explain the lack of investment going into the commodity sector. Underinvestment for many years is leading to a supply cliff for Gold, Silver, Copper and many other commodities. Most of the money is going into unprofitable tech companies. This positions the commodity sector to outperform in the coming years. Sun, 02 Jan 2022 23:07:37 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/silver-gold-production-cliff-coming-2604 This chart tells us that either stocks are too expensive or commodities are very cheap despite the recent rise. Who would want a "short commodities, long equities" position? Yet this is the ECB's synthetic position! The worst there is. Buy tangible assets & sell record overvalued equities. pic.twitter.com/EMjYOkuV2Z — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) December 16, 2021 Fri, 17 Dec 2021 14:09:37 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/buy-tangible-assets-sell-record-overvalued-equities-2586 Kevin Smith & Tavi Costa of Crescat Capital make the very compelling case that gold, silver and the precious metals mining companies are poised for tremendous upside ahead, as part of the Great Rotation they see coming. If you've not yet watched Part 1 of our interview with Kevin & Tavi, in which they explain why rising inflation will lead to higher interest rates that will in turn drive capital out of today's high-flying stocks and into hard assets & commodities, you can watch it here : Tue, 30 Nov 2021 12:16:02 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/gold-set-explode-higher-silver-most-underpriced-metal-earth-2562 Tavi Costa of Crescat Capital joins Wall Street Silver to share where he is buying right now. The Fed is trapped and can't raise rates, Tavi firmly believes commodities, silver and the silver miners are primed to move higher. Thu, 07 Oct 2021 09:36:49 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/silver-one-best-positioned-trades-out-there-right-now-2498 Several structural problems in the U.S. could cause a slowdown in economic growth soon, with stagflation hitting and lasting for the next six months, said Tavi Costa, portfolio manager of Crescat Capital. “I am in the of sort of a more of a stagflationary environment in the next six months or so. It’s difficult to see stagflation over a long period of time…but it’s possible to have periods of that and I think we’re getting into one,” Costa told David Lin, anchor for Kitco News. Tue, 14 Sep 2021 08:58:15 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/stagflation-markets-danger-sell-off-gold-2471 Interesting setup: Precious metals are now at their cheapest levels relative to other commodities since 2009. The other two times this ratio reached such depressed levels also marked incredible buying opportunities. Mon, 23 Aug 2021 12:45:32 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/precious-metals-cheapest-levels-relative-other-commodities-since-2009-2452 Investors are always looking to history for guidance by attempting to find the most economically comparable period to the present. Two timeframes are the most conspicuous, the '40s and the '70s. However, today’s environment is significantly more extreme. In resemblance to today, the economy of the 1940s had high government debt and large fiscal deficits relative to GDP along with repressive Fed interest rate policies. It was a decade that included two sharp waves of increasing inflation in the Consumer Price Index, the first during World War II and the second right after it. Monthly CPI rose to a short-term peak of 13.2% on a year-over-year basis in 1942, and while it fell back down to 0% in 1944, it then spiked again to a higher peak of 19.7% in 1947, the highest year-over-year CPI increase of the last century. Some macro investors today are citing the 1940s to validate the Fed’s hypothesis that the recent rise in consumer prices will prove to be... Sun, 01 Aug 2021 18:57:42 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/not-your-mother-inflation-2415 An ideal setup. The gold-to-silver ratio looks ready to tumble again. When silver leads the way, stay on course. It’s what you would expect in a bull market for precious metals. Mon, 05 Jul 2021 16:47:45 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/gold-silver-ratio-looks-ready-to-tumble-again-2380