Ronnie Stoeferle https://goldbroker.com/news/authors/ronnie-stoeferle It was a tremor that shook the financial markets in the trading days following Liberation Day, when tariffs were imposed on almost every country in the world. One of the big winners was gold. After a brief setback below USD 3,000, the USD 3,200 mark was broken on April 11, the USD 3,300 mark on April 16, marking new all-time highs. However, the significant depreciation of the US dollar – the US dollar index fell by around 4% within a few days, by more than 4% against the euro and by around 8% against the Swiss franc – meant that the gold price in euro rose only slightly and fell by more than 4% in Swiss francs. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 dropped by more than 7%. One reason for gold’s strength is its portfolio property as a hedge against (economic) political uncertainties of any kind, whether due to armed conflicts, political crises or trade conflicts. The positive correlation between the gold price in US dollars and the World Uncertainty Index is evident.... Mon, 05 May 2025 05:45:44 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/gold-role-rearrangement-global-economic-order-3530 +28.1%, +27.2%, +28.3% – this is the impressive performance of gold in the first 9 months of the year in US dollars, Euros and Swiss Francs, respectively. +42.3%, +35.0%, +31.1% – this is the even more impressive year-on-year performance as of the end of September. Given these figures, the question automatically arises: has the gold price reached its ceiling, or is it even in a bubble, as it was in the early 1980s, and is a significant correction imminent? However, there are strong reasons to believe that the gold price is not yet in a region of extreme overvaluation. Adjusted for inflation, gold is not yet at its all-time high Since December 2023 in US dollars and October 2023 in euros, the gold price has been chasing one all-time high after another. It is hard to imagine now that the gold price failed several times to break through the USD 2,000 mark for almost four years, given that it subsequently rose by more than 30% to over USD 2,600 in less than six months. H... Tue, 05 Nov 2024 06:27:16 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/five-reasons-why-gold-rally-is-not-over-yet-3435 The rise in the gold price this spring was undoubtedly spectacular. In just a few weeks, the gold price rose by almost 20% in USD terms, with a gain of 21.7% for the first half of the year as a whole. In EUR terms, gold recorded a gain of 16.4% in the year’s first six months. The showdown in the gold price that we predicted in the In Gold We Trust report 2023 has come to pass. What is remarkable is that all of this is happening in an environment in which, according to the previous playbook, the gold price should actually have fallen. The collapse of the correlation between the gold price and real interest rates raises many questions. In the old paradigm, it was unthinkable that the gold price would trend firmer during a phase of sharply rising real interest rates. Gold and gold investors are now entering terra incognita. Traditional correlations are breaking down In addition to the high negative correlation between the gold price and US real interest rates, the once... Thu, 25 Jul 2024 06:14:32 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/five-reasons-new-gold-playbook-3380 The 2024 In Gold We Trust report entitled "The New Gold Playbook" has been published! Over 400 pages of research, with topics ranging from gold, macro, and inflation to mining and the price of beer in gold. This is the gold standard of all gold studies. Here are the 10 key points you need to know : 1. The high inverse correlation between US real yields and the gold price is history (for now). Despite the rise in real yields, the rise in the gold price could not be halted. 2. Central banks are a decisive factor in the demand for gold: Demand from these institutions is not very price-sensitive. Central banks are likely to have put a floor under the gold price. 3. The weaponization of fiat money has lasting consequences: The confiscation of Russian reserves and assets of Russian oligarchs in 2022 was a wake-up call for numerous states, as well as wealthy private individuals from the Gulf states, Russia, and China. (L... Thu, 23 May 2024 08:18:25 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/10-key-points-new-gold-playbook-3348 In Europe, many countries have been seething since 2015, when the first major wave of refugees reached Germany and Austria in particular. In the US, it was the election of Donald Trump as President in November 2016 that brought the deep divide between Republicans and Democrats to everyone’s attention. A few months earlier, to the surprise of many, the UK had opted for Brexit, an exit from the EU. Only a few years have passed since then, but the density of crises has increased rather than decreased: Covid-19, the climate crisis, inflation, the war in Ukraine, the energy crisis, and finally Hamas’ terrorist attack on Israel and its response. 2024 will see a number of important elections in these times of multiple crises: presidential elections in the USA, elections to the European Parliament, and three state elections in eastern federal states in Germany (in each of which the AfD is leading in the polls by more than 30%). 2024 could be the year of major social and politic... Tue, 20 Feb 2024 07:01:23 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/2024-could-be-year-major-social-political-upheavals-3288 The reshaping of the world economy and the global (political) order is in full swing. It is a long process, the concrete outcome of which is uncertain in advance and associated with numerous imponderables. Nevertheless, there are powerful factors, such as the shift in economic, demographic and military weight, that are driving the readjustment in the (geo)political arena. And this readjustment is also reflected in the change in gold flows. They are increasingly shifting from West to East, since “Gold goes where the money is,” as James Steel pointedly put it. The central banks of the states of the East are among the strongest buyers of gold – also within the West This is also reflected in the continuing enthusiasm of central banks for gold, especially in non-Western countries. 2022 saw the largest purchases of gold by central banks since records began more than 70 years ago, at 1,136 tons. The first half of 2023 saw a continuation of this trend. Despite a weaker second... Thu, 26 Oct 2023 06:47:02 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/five-signs-gold-will-increasingly-flow-east-3208 I don't think it stands a snowball's chance in hell. Low inflation is over and we're not going back. We are moving into a multipolar reserve-currency world where the dollar will be challenged by the renminbi and the euro for reserve currency status.​ These currencies, especially the renminbi, would not necessarily be used as a reserve currency, but rather to settle trade. Gold could play an increased role here. The fact that China is running current account surpluses does not exclude their currency from becoming a global reserve currency. In fact, the US ran surpluses post-WW2, and this led the dollar on its global reserve currency path. The Chinese are using swap lines to settle international trade accounts. This is a fundamentally different approach from the dollar reserve framework and would mean that trade can occur in renminbi without nations needing to hold vast reserves of the currency. The various crises that today’s finan... Tue, 04 Jul 2023 06:00:00 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/new-world-monetary-order-dedollarization-role-gold-3134 There is a good reason why the Chinese understand the saying “May you live in exciting times!” as a curse. Economic and (geo)political developments in recent weeks and months have indeed been exciting. In many areas, it looks as if we are heading for a showdown, for a lasting, formative change. The following five charts present the multi-faceted showdowns that are happening right now before our eyes. We cannot choose that the times are currently so exciting. However, we can choose how to deal with these exciting times so that they do not become a curse for us, but rather an advantage for us and as many people as possible. 1. Inflation – History (still) rhymes The parallels between the inflation trend in the 1960s, 1970s and early 1980s and the inflation trend since 2013 is almost frighteningly striking. Only the scaling needs to be slightly reduced by a quarter, loosely based on Mark Twain’s well-known statement: “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it rhymes!”... Fri, 14 Apr 2023 04:12:29 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/multi-faceted-showdowns-that-are-happening-right-now-before-our-eyes-3067 In this refreshingly fact-focused report, Matterhorn Asset Management (MAM) advisor, Ronni Stoeferle, takes a deeper look at the false “eco war” on gold. In a world of ever-growing public narratives completely at odds with transparent reality (from “Putin’s” war to “Transitory Inflation”), it should come as no surprise that the current ESG and “Green Revolution Army” of the woke West has turned its political gun sights toward the one precious metal which serves as the greatest threat to a dying fiat currency system: Gold. With puffed chests and lofty claims, global environmental leadership has conveniently made a disingenuous but full-frontal assault on gold mining (and hence gold) as an environmental threat. How convenient… Fortunately, Ronni’s analysis of gold’s use/consumption data, CO2 characteristics and environmental comparisons to conventional fiat currencies provides a far more fact-based (rather than politically-charged) context to this otherwise bogus war on... Mon, 30 Jan 2023 08:51:27 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/why-gold-is-green-2991 5 reasons why the classic 60/40 portfolio is history and gold is becoming more important in the portfolio: 1) Bonds are no longer the antifragile portfolio foundation 2022 has been a highly unpleasant year for bonds so far. Over the course of the year, 30-year US Treasuries, for example, fell by around 45%, 10-year US Treasuries by around 18% and German Bunds by around 19%. One of our central theses of the In Gold We Trust reports of the past years is now likely to come true: (government) bonds are no longer the antifragile portfolio foundation they have been over the past 40 years. By their very nature, the price declines are particularly sharp for bonds with particularly long maturities. The second of the two 100-year Austrian government bonds issued so far has been anything but a good deal. It was issued in 2020 with a coupon of a measly 0.850% and an issue yield of 0.880%. This EUR 2bn bond was oversubscribed 12 times (!!!) when it was issued, which must have made... Tue, 15 Nov 2022 09:24:51 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/why-gold-becoming-more-important-in-classic-investment-portfolios-2917 Matterhorn Asset Management (MAM) founder, Egon von Greyerz, sits down with MAM advisors, Grant Williams and Ronni Stoeferle, to discuss the current and “perfect hurricane” of de-dollarization in global markets. Turning first toward the new direction in commodity pricing, Ronni reminds that last year the commodity prices were already up by 27%. Thus, the West simply can’t blame the break-out in commodities on Putin’s “disruptions” in the Ukraine, which was merely an accelerator of an already structurally broken Western system marred by extreme fiscal and monetary extravagance. Grant then turns to the “Russian Question” to discuss the massive ramifications of the most extreme financial sanctions ever imposed in history. For Grant, the sanctions were an absolute game changer, and have shown the rest of the world (and its central banks) that FX reserves in general and the US Treasury in particular can be dangerous weapons and hence less trust w... Sun, 24 Apr 2022 10:39:56 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/dedollarization-accelerates-gold-will-emerge-more-trusted-asset-2712 Intro by Matthew Piepenburg In the attached report, Matterhorn Asset Management advisor and Incrementum AG founder, Ronni Stoeferle, offers a compelling perspective on the rapid changes in the global monetary system and the massive implications behind Western sanctions unleashed on February 27th against Russia. As Ronni indicates, these measures have staggering and far-reaching consequences for global markets, currencies and the gold price. Recent sanctions and the “militarization of money” designed to target Russia are in fact hurting the West in equal, if not greater, measure, especially with regard to the weakening prominence of the USD and euro. As Putin moves to trade more in RUB, other nations, including China and India, will tilt ever more toward de-dollarization in future agreements as global trade becomes increasingly multi-polar and multi-currency. Sanctions confirm that the USD is no longer a neutral currency, but rather a highly politicized weapon. Escal... Tue, 19 Apr 2022 07:18:07 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/gold-will-benefit-from-inevitable-reshaping-international-monetary-system-2708 Matterhorn Asset Management advisor and Incrementum, AG Managing Partner, Ronald Stoeferle, shares his 2022 outlook for gold in the adjoining report. Stoeferle specifically addresses legitimate concerns regarding gold’s relatively tame/disappointing price action in 2021 despite an otherwise gold-favorable setting of declining real rates and rising inflation. Ultimately, he sees the recent sideways movement in the gold price as a sign of strength rather than weakness and makes the case for a “golden year for gold” in 2022. Stoeferle’s convictions for 2022 stem from five core arguments, namely: 1) inflation remaining elevated and persistent; 2) continuing monetary policy excess; 3) a consistent trend of negative real rates; 4) equity market headwinds from inflation; and 5) gold’s favorable relative value against other asset classes. As one of the world’s leading precious metal experts and author of the globally renown and annual, In Gold We Trust report, Stoeferle’s insi... Mon, 24 Jan 2022 16:28:03 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/why-2022-will-be-golden-year-2616 Ronnie Stoeferle and Egon von Greyerz question why, despite explosive money printing and obvious inflation, gold has not long since been quoted much, much higher. How long will it take for gold to reflect inflation and astronomical money creation and break through the long overdue price forecasts of well over USD 10,000 per ounce? Thu, 05 Aug 2021 10:55:16 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/inflation-is-here-why-isnt-gold-exploding-2422 Some of the brightest minds in finance, Grant Williams, Egon von Greyerz, and Ronnie Stoeferle discuss fiscal policy, the "crack-up boom," inflation, liquidity, and of course gold and silver in these highlights from a recent discussion. Mon, 26 Jul 2021 22:17:14 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/the-inflationary-endgame-2414 Every year for the past 13 years, Ronald Stoeferle, now accompanied by his partner at Incrementum AG Mark Valek, has published a new edition of his world-famous “In Gold We Trust” report. This publication, which is usually published in late May/early June, is then updated in the fall, giving the reader the patience to wait until the following spring. The Chartbook of the last report was published on October 24, and serves as a support for the lecture tour that Ronald Stoeferle began on November 11 at the Precious Metals Summit à Zurich. Gold and time In a keynote entitled, « Gold, the 7th Sense of the Financial Markets », Ronald Stoeferle starts with the dual observation that: "Nobody is talking about the sustainability of our monetary system"; However, no one is questioning the solidity of gold over historical periods. These findings seem to me to be valid. One thing, however, is clear: when we talk about gold, I think we must distinguish two t... Sun, 22 Dec 2019 06:15:00 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/gold-the-7th-sense-of-the-financial-markets-1707 My exclusive interview with Ronald-Peter Stöferle, Incrementum Liechtenstein AG, co-author of the In Gold we Trust 2014 report. “We are currently on a journey to the outer reaches of the monetary universe. We believe that the monetary experiments currently underway will have numerous unintended consequences, the extent of which is difficult to gauge today. Gold, as the antagonist of unbacked paper currencies, remains an excellent hedge against rising price inflation and worst-case scenarios. The tug-of-war between a deflationary debt liquidation and politically induced price inflation is well and alive. Last year we coined the term ”monetary tectonics” which describes the battle between these powerful forces. An excellent indicator for the interaction between inflation and deflation is the gold/silver ratio. One could therefore also refer to the gold-silver ratio as the “deflation/reflation” ratio.” We will be discussing these topics and mu... Mon, 08 Sep 2014 06:00:00 +0000 https://goldbroker.com/news/video-interview-ronald-peter-stoferle-monetary-tectonics-inflation-deflation-gold-562