Dedollarization

Stock markets in Europe and the United States are markedly turning south, although they’re not headed for a crash, at least for the moment. Is this the beginning of a long journey to Hell or just a temporary bump?

Last month we saw imports of gold into Switzerland and then exports to Asia and India. Last month, over 70% of the gold import figures (into Switzerland) came from London and the United States.

The world economy and global stock markets are at the end of the biggest bubble in history. A bubble fuelled by unprecedented stimulus from central banks and governments to prevent the financial system from imploding.

The time of easy gains in markets is now over. With the Fed and other central banks tightening and with the 35 year interest cycle having turned up, the party is over.

The end of an empire is a dramatic but also drawn out event with very few willing to face the facts. As the end is getting closer, denial is at its peak. We can probably figure out how it will end but not quite when. Looking at the facts, the beginning of the end is here.

Hungary’s central bank increased its gold reserves 10-fold, citing the need to improve its holdings’ safety, joining regional peers with relatively high ownership in the European Union’s east.

In recent weeks we have been wary that, despite highly favorable COTs and Hedgers charts and rotten sentiment indicators etc, a general asset liquidation might drag the PM sector even further down, but Thursday’s extraordinarily positive action by the sector serves to allay those fears.

With global investment markets standing at crossroads, investors have the option to lose it all or to benefit from the biggest wealth transfer in history.

If you look at the bullish rally that followed the severe decline in price in 2008, there is a fan (dotted line) on which there has been no pullback in 2008. I think we’re going to get this pullback in the leg of decline to come, in order to better consolidate the rise that will follow.

Many emerging markets are now turning to submerging markets as country after country is experiencing falling economies, currencies and stock markets.