Record Gold Price, an Alert?

Published by Philippe Herlin | Dec 7, 2023 | 13748

The price of gold beats its record, both in dollars and euros. Bitcoin climbs, but remains far from its 2021 high. At the same time, the stock market is making some headway, and housing is more or less depressed across the globe. Something is going on. Aside from cyclical explanations (a slowdown in...

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Geopolitics and Economics: Back to the 1970s

Published by Philippe Herlin | Oct 12, 2023 | 9177

Fifty years to the day after the Yom Kippur War, the Hamas terrorist attack on Israel stunned the world with its brutality and suddenness. It was anticipated that this war would last longer than the previous one (less than twenty days, from October 6 to 25, 1973), with the threat of global repercuss...

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Is Inflation Boosted by Oil?

Published by Philippe Herlin | Sep 28, 2023 | 9094

The ECB has just raised its deposit rate to 4% and halted its sovereign debt repurchases, with the stated aim of stamping out inflation. Unfortunately, this will probably have little effect, as oil prices are slowly but surely climbing.

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Inflation has Become a Geopolitical Issue

Published by Philippe Herlin | Aug 17, 2023 | 10460

From being a purely economic variable, inflation will also become a geopolitical issue through the Russia/NATO war, de-dollarization and an increasingly multipolar world. It's vital to be aware of this and to act globally, otherwise things are going to end very badly, especially for Europeans.

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SVB, Eurovita: The Global Bond Crisis Begins

Published by Philippe Herlin | Mar 16, 2023 | 19298

The bankruptcies of Eurovita and SVB, while waiting for the next ones, are linked to a bond crisis. It is not a question of fraud (FTX, Madoff), toxic assets (subprimes), or adventurous management (LTCM in 1998). No, the problem is the huge bundle of sovereign bonds that form the basis of the balanc...

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The Dollar Leads the Way, Until When?

Published by Philippe Herlin | Sep 29, 2022 | 11055

The dollar's good shape is in stark contrast to other major currencies, but paper currencies are all plagued by the insidious evil of inflation. The dollar is doing well at the moment, but as the saying goes, "In the kingdom of the blind, the one-eyed man is king".

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Euro-Inflation Downward Spiral Sets In

Published by Philippe Herlin | Aug 18, 2022 | 19321

Government officials speak of a "peak" in inflation... But inflation is here to stay, because its causes are still present: the money printing of central banks to finance budget deficits, the energy transition which increases the price of electricity, the ill-considered sanctions taken against Russi...

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France Issues Toxic Loans to Embellish its Debt

Published by Philippe Herlin | Aug 4, 2022 | 20279

Without these OATi and OAT€i, the French debt rate would be at or above that of Italy. But the explosion of the cost of this indexed debt will make this subterfuge less and less tenable... Inflation-indexed bonds may not hide the misery much longer. France's debt will soon be watched with concern by...

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Fall of the Euro: And if This Were Only the Beginning?

Published by Philippe Herlin | Jul 21, 2022 | 15685

On July 12, the euro reached parity with the dollar, something that has not happened since 2003. The euro has lost 12% against the dollar since January 1, which is a lot in the massive and liquid foreign exchange market. What if this fall continues? The question must be asked. The fall of the euro i...

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