Philippe Herlin

Inflation is here to stay. But the question now is: can it degenerate into hyperinflation?

The risk is there: "the most fragile countries are not Italy or Spain, but France, Greece and perhaps Portugal." What the Greeks experienced in the 2010s - and they are still paying the bill - could soon happen to the French.

Christine Lagarde's denial, its refusal to raise the key rate, and its apathy towards inflation, will prolong the weakening of the euro against the dollar, thus creating an additional cause of inflation (raw materials being paid in dollars, the fall of the euro mechanically increases their price)...

This important loss of purchasing power, imperfectly compensated by government subsidies, will lead us into a recession. The savers who put their trust in physical gold will preserve their savings, but this is only individual behavior; the governments that benefit from the money printing press wi...

The Bureau of Labor Statistics has just released a statement: inflation rose to 8.5% in March over the last twelve months. A figure not reached since the records of the 1970s, and an increase that nothing seems to be able to stop.

We can already hear the leaders of Western countries blaming Putin for the rise in prices... It's very convenient, but it's not true: it's their money printing, to finance their deficits, which has long been feeding the current inflation. The war in Ukraine only reinforces and accelerates this tr...

The Russian central bank halts its gold purchases to give priority to private individuals. Hold on! Will the Russians be able to use it as a transaction currency next to the ruble? We will see. Russia and China have acquired large quantities of gold in recent years, certainly with an idea in mind.

As we slowly emerge from the Covid parenthesis, is a real rise in policy rates on the horizon? We can doubt it. The ECB will follow and not take the initiative, as usual. The rise in rates will therefore be very limited. Therefore, inflation is here to stay...

Inflation is already a destructive evil in itself, but its partial concealment reinforces its harmfulness by deceiving economic players about its real value. It is important to know that governments manipulate the money printing press, but also the measurement of the resulting price increase. Fac...

The leaders of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) have long promised us that their lax monetary policy would not lead to inflation, and that we should not worry, that it would be "transitory". They now concede that the transitional period could be prolonged, but co...

There is now too much debt in the economy, everywhere and at too high a level. The room for maneuver of central banks is considerably narrower...

The Danish bank, Saxo Bank, has become famous for publishing every year a series of ten "outrageous predictions" that are supposed to profoundly change our societies in the coming year. The exercise is difficult and these predictions rarely come true. But they have the merit of pointing out probl...

The ECB is making a mockery of the world: it is shirking its responsibilities (printing money, zero interest rate), it is being lax with the banking system (insufficient capital), it refuses to recognize the damage it is causing (bubbles in equities, bonds and real estate), it refrains from lectu...

The mass distribution is planning a price increase in food, reports Le Figaro. Michel-Edouard Leclerc, president of the hypermarket group of the same name, expects "a hell of a price increase this month". This should not come as a surprise. This was foreseen by one of the few economic theories th...

The Swiss newspaper Le Temps published on October 6 an exclusive piece of information that did not get the coverage it deserved: the International Monetary Fund (IMF) knew as early as 2016 that the Lebanese banking system was going to collapse, but the central bank and its governor, Riad Salamé,...

The ECB is building a Potemkin village of European public debt, to keep up appearances, hoping that inflation will not undermine the whole thing...

Evergrande, China's largest property developer, directly employs 200,000 people and indirectly employs 3.8 million people. Problem: the group is bankrupt and announced on September 14 that it is facing a risk of default. Evergrande is crushed by liabilities of nearly 260 billion euros, while it h...

Central banks are stuck and condemned to see the value of their currencies deteriorate, hoping that inflation will be "temporary". So this situation will continue and get stronger, maybe one day we will reach the -10% real interest rate, as in my fiction (i.e. a division by two of the value of sa...

The American and European central banks - the Fed and the ECB - would have us believe that they will be able to raise their key rates when the time comes. In reality, they will have to choose between several crisis scenarios.

We note an average gold's performance of +8.17% per year, then +8.69% per year over the last twenty years. No liquid asset has performed this well over such a long period. It is reported that an investment offering an annual return of +7.18% can double its capital in ten years. Therefore, gold in...