Philippe Herlin

It's time to put a stop to this belief, oversold by certain bankers and financial magazines: No, stocks are not the best long-term investment.

Real estate prices in France are falling, but have we seen the last of expensive housing? Far from it! Price distortion has reached a level that will take a long time to resolve. And this rise in property prices is a global phenomenon.

The price of gold beats its record, both in dollars and euros. Bitcoin climbs, but remains far from its 2021 high. At the same time, the stock market is making some headway, and housing is more or less depressed across the globe. Something is going on. Aside from cyclical explanations (a slowdown...

Fifty years to the day after the Yom Kippur War, the Hamas terrorist attack on Israel stunned the world with its brutality and suddenness. It was anticipated that this war would last longer than the previous one (less than twenty days, from October 6 to 25, 1973), with the threat of global reperc...

The ECB has just raised its deposit rate to 4% and halted its sovereign debt repurchases, with the stated aim of stamping out inflation. Unfortunately, this will probably have little effect, as oil prices are slowly but surely climbing.

From being a purely economic variable, inflation will also become a geopolitical issue through the Russia/NATO war, de-dollarization and an increasingly multipolar world. It's vital to be aware of this and to act globally, otherwise things are going to end very badly, especially for Europeans.

Bitcoin is often presented as "digital gold", but the question immediately arises: competition or complementarity? Gold benefits from a centuries-old history and unrivalled trust, while crypto-currencies bring the innovation of blockchain, and it is here that synergies can occur.

When we compare the performance of different investments (gold, real estate, stocks, bonds, commodities, etc.), we often forget an essential element: are we talking about a homogeneous asset or a category? It's not the same thing: "You can't compare apples and oranges", as the saying goes.

The central banks' communication on the CBDC projects is a trial run, to test reactions, and then it will naturally appear simpler to stay with a single currency.

Inflation will persist. Central banks are slow to react and the current level of interest rates will not be enough to stop the rise in prices. A "great depression" is looming…

Between bullish real estate, a currency that is slowly but surely devaluing and a sovereign wealth fund that will not be as promising as expected, the choices become more complex for the Norwegian saver. Physical gold should be reconsidered as an investment.

The bankruptcies of Eurovita and SVB, while waiting for the next ones, are linked to a bond crisis. It is not a question of fraud (FTX, Madoff), toxic assets (subprimes), or adventurous management (LTCM in 1998). No, the problem is the huge bundle of sovereign bonds that form the basis of the bal...

France, which is lagging behind its eurozone partners thanks to its tariff shield, seems to be heading for double-digit inflation in 2023. The energy dependence condemns Europe to high and lasting inflation.

The dollar's good shape is in stark contrast to other major currencies, but paper currencies are all plagued by the insidious evil of inflation. The dollar is doing well at the moment, but as the saying goes, "In the kingdom of the blind, the one-eyed man is king".

The accurate measurement of inflation is particularly important in the current period. Prices are slipping at levels not seen in decades. Households and businesses need to have the best possible perception of this in order to adjust their behavior. Unfortunately, national statistical institutes t...

Government officials speak of a "peak" in inflation... But inflation is here to stay, because its causes are still present: the money printing of central banks to finance budget deficits, the energy transition which increases the price of electricity, the ill-considered sanctions taken against Ru...

Without these OATi and OAT€i, the French debt rate would be at or above that of Italy. But the explosion of the cost of this indexed debt will make this subterfuge less and less tenable... Inflation-indexed bonds may not hide the misery much longer. France's debt will soon be watched with concern...

On July 12, the euro reached parity with the dollar, something that has not happened since 2003. The euro has lost 12% against the dollar since January 1, which is a lot in the massive and liquid foreign exchange market. What if this fall continues? The question must be asked. The fall of the eur...

"How inflation increases the cost of debt for the state", headlines Les Echos on June 30. So, the general belief is that a good wave of inflation will wipe out debts, but this would not be the case after all?

Historically, the European and North American economies have been closely linked. The figures show comparable growth rates and standards of living, even if the United States has always kept a lead over "old Europe". The current crisis, with the return of inflation and the war in Ukraine, crystall...