Publications

The destruction of money is now accelerating in parallel with the deficit and debt expansion. This is the typical course of events for the end game.

The intervention by the central banks on the markets is scrambling the message. Assets that have become at risk, in this inflationary backdrop, are being given excessive valuations. By contrast, the values that protect against the upcoming inflation are still being evaluated at very low levels. At any event, this is a very favorable backdrop for assets like gold.

With the CPI annual inflation rate spiking 5% in May, gold could have gained a lot in response. However, it rallied only $20. Should we prepare for more?

Egon von Greyerz and Matthew Piepenburg address the current and ever-evolving inflation narrative as well as its inter-relationship with interest rates. This relationship has a direct impact upon gold pricing in a global backdrop of rising and unsustainable debt levels.

French President Macron told a news conference he would like the sale of gold reserves to help finance this planned aid for Africa.

Gold’s future depends on the Fed’s reaction to rising inflation, or whether or not investors will focus on nominal and real interest rates. If the US central bank stays behind the inflation curve, real interest rates will stay in the negative territory, supporting the price of gold.

Alleviating public debt through a dose of inflation is a widely shared and defended idea, it even seems obvious. But what is it really?

The “match” between the two camps (the inflationists versus those who are convinced of the transitory impact of the rise in prices) is leading, as one would logically expect, to this very volatile phase on the gold and silver metals markets.

The implementation of the Basel III standards on the Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR), in particular on allocated or unallocated gold and on its derivative products will cause an earthquake on the market, which should lead to a serious revaluation of the price of ounce of physical gold. As for the gold-paper game, it will no longer interest the banks and will only be addressed to a few professionals looking to hedge a future delivery.

The governments and central banks have crossed a point of no return, meaning that structural reforms to our monetary system are inevitably going to be required. Judging by the previous cycles, said reforms should become a necessity before the next 20 years are out. There is an urgent need to anticipate an overhaul, in the long term, of the international monetary system.

It will take several more months to fully eliminate the slack in the labor market. The implication is clear: precious metals investors shouldn’t bet on a change in the Fed’s stance anytime soon. And as the yellow metal is very sensitive to tapering fears, this is positive news for gold bulls.

The price of gold rose above $1900 at the start of the week and has since stabilized around this level. It is the first time this important threshold has been reached since last January. In terms of the monthly charts, gold is in a confirmed breakout of its consolidation “flag” which will have lasted 9 months.

Holding physical gold is like putting your money on black on a roulette table with only black numbers. You know that you will win every time as history proves with 100% certainty that governments will continue to destroy the currency and thus the economy.

With the Basel III accord, the most important change for precious metals is that banks would be required to hold reserves against their assets. Under the coming regulations, banks would count unallocated precious metals at 85 percent of their value on the bank’s books in making the determination of how much it needs to hold in reserves against these assets.

Asset price inflation is now spreading to everyday goods as the velocity of money in circulation increases, in some cases exacerbated by artificially created shortages. It looks as if we have to prepare for shrinking economies and inflation. In this mix, more and more institutional investors are recognizing the need to diversify their portfolios with gold as a stable currency and inflation hedge.