War and the Gold Supercycle
While some banks maintain expectations of prices exceeding $6,000 per ounce, and following gold’s spectacular rise in 2025, should we expect this super-cycle trend to continue?
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While some banks maintain expectations of prices exceeding $6,000 per ounce, and following gold’s spectacular rise in 2025, should we expect this super-cycle trend to continue?
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The conflict in Iran reminds us that the world has truly entered a new era. The recurrence of wars is accompanied by persistent inflationary risks and a profound redefinition of global balances. How might financial markets and gold prices react?
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Between wars, demonetization, exports, and resales, the actual amount of gold held by the French remains unknown. While the French have purchased nearly 240 tons of gold over the past fifteen years, their appetite for gold remains moderate compared to their neighbors. In this context, how can we...
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Friday, January 30, 2026, will go down as a landmark date in the gold and silver markets. Both metals recorded their sharpest daily swing since at least the 1980s, bringing several weeks of intense speculation to an abrupt end.
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With an increase of nearly 150% last year, silver is making a spectacular comeback. It remains to be seen whether this momentum will continue in 2026, as the white metal remains strategic.
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The evolution of the gold price in 2026 remains conditioned by the prospect of lower key interest rates in the United States, changes in liquidity and demand for investment, jewelry, and central banks.
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Some investors choose to defer their investment in gold, arguing that gold is “too expensive.” This article therefore aims to measure the opportunity cost incurred by an investor who decides to delay investing in gold.
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While gold has been the big winner in recent years, many other metals are now becoming increasingly scarce: silver, platinum, copper and others. This trend is based on both persistent tensions on the supply side and structurally high demand.
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With nearly 80% of the metal supply coming from mining, the cost of production appears to be the determining variable in market valuation. This cost conditions the profitability of mining companies, influences the metal's floor price and can even affect the decisions of investors and central bank...
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Since the crisis in 2020, the US stock market has grown at a sustained rate of +20% per year. Since 2022, this rise has been further accentuated by the rise of artificial intelligence. Despite the momentum of innovation and continued growth in the US, the strength of this bull market is raising q...
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For the third year running, our forecasts for the price of gold have come true. While a sharp fall in the gold price seems unlikely in 2025, attention is now focused on the intensity of the trend.
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Gold's appearance predates that of iron by several millennia, and coincides approximately with that of copper. It has also been established that the precious metal was used by certain civilizations even before the birth of writing. The history of gold never ceases to amaze, to the point where we...
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Gold is world-renowned for its physical properties, but it is also in great demand for its financial qualities. Most of the world's major asset managers and central banks hold gold, while a large proportion of the public remains unaware of the benefits of the golden metal. In financial theory, go...
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Is gold still the foundation of our monetary system? This question is worth asking as central banks accumulate record quantities of the golden metal. In fact, a detailed study of central bank gold inventories reveals a certain consistency in the monetary strategy of most countries.
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In 2024, with almost one in five ounces now dedicated to the photovoltaic industry, tensions on the silver market are mounting. Against this backdrop, the price of the grey metal would be headed for good prospects. While the breakout from the $26/oz level has now been confirmed, analysis of the b...
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France is known for having the 4th largest stock of gold in the world, even though the country ranks 23rd in wealth per capita. In fact, over 2,400 tons of gold, or €146 billion at €60,000/kg, are stored in the vaults at 39 Rue Croix des Petits Champs in Paris. But do the French own so much gold...
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In a January 2024 publication, JP Morgan unveiled its outlook for the gold price. The world's leading bank, with a market capitalization of over $500 billion, stated that “a cutting cycle is expected to be positive for bullion and supportive of a rally in prices in the second half of 2024”.
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Visibility on the fundamentals of the gold price remains as good as ever. It is therefore timely for us to present and detail our outlook for 2024. Gold's performance in 2024 will be influenced by 4 major factors.
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Is the price of gold linked to other markets? Conversely, is the price of gold independent of market trends? This question is all the more important as gold is often perceived as a "safe-haven" asset, capable of behaving independently of other markets. In this paper, we will focus on the short-te...
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In this article, we analyze gold's monthly performance. First of all, it appears that "minimal" monthly variations account for the vast majority of gold price variations. In other words, most of the time, the price of gold follows a channelled, low-volatility pattern.
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