Laurent Maurel

At first glance, everything seems under control: stocks are holding steady and the U.S. economy is resilient. And yet, something is going wrong in the global financial system. In recent days, the cost of very short-term cash – the SOFR rate – has risen sharply.

The decline of the gold price simply reflects the scarcity of dollars. When financing tightens, funds temporarily sell their most liquid positions – including gold. Historically, these periods of consolidation in a stressful monetary environment always precede sharp recoveries.

While the stock markets are driven by algorithms and bitcoin is kept afloat by synthetic liquidity, the silver market highlights the divide between paper and reality.

The prices of gold and silver have just set new historical records, confirming the monetary regime shift that major global investors have been anticipating for several years.

With the US government shutdown, “fiscal QE” came to an abrupt halt. It comes at a time when the US Treasury has become the central player in providing liquidity to the system. The longer the situation drags on, the more the pipeline seizes up – and the greater the likelihood of an accident.

For two years, observers have been puzzled by a paradox: while the Fed is reducing the size of its balance sheet through quantitative tightening (QT), the M2 money supply is on the rise. The key to this mystery lies in the growing role of money market funds (MMFs).

Since the beginning of the year, the greenback has already fallen by nearly 10%, reaching a new low. The dollar's weakness is not the result of an external shock, but rather a deliberate action by the authorities to preserve financial stability.

The situation in the US labor market now highlights its profound fragility, after two years of embellished statistics. In September, the Bureau of Labor Statistics made the largest negative revision in the history of payrolls.

Mitch Vexler, a real estate developer turned whistleblower, detailed what he considers to be a ticking time bomb at the heart of the US financial system: the way property taxes fuel public school funding and school bonds.

On September 8, the French government will face a decisive confidence vote. The risk is clear: if the government fails and the general strike brings the country to a standstill, France could plunge into a systemic bond and banking crisis within a matter of days, with no credible political support...

We are at a turning point. Markets are behaving as if the liquidity party could last forever, even though the hidden reserve that supported it has disappeared. And it is precisely this kind of configuration that paves the way for the most brutal reversals.

The long-term outlook – sustained inflation and long-term interest rates anchored on an upward trajectory – is one of the pillars supporting gold prices over the long term. This is particularly true given that, at this stage, no one is really significantly exposed to it.

Central banks are preparing for a world where the dollar will no longer be the only credible store of value. As monetary uncertainty grows, gold is regaining its central role as a trusted asset that is outside the system, liquid, and free of counterparty risk.

The obvious loss of effectiveness of the Bank of Japan's interventions is reflected in the immediate reaction of assets deemed to be barometers of confidence, foremost among them gold in local currency.

Japan is said to have agreed, in return for tariff cuts, to use part of its sovereign wealth funds to finance US strategic projects. Confidence is crumbling. Gold is becoming the last credible refuge for Japanese households and institutions.

The silver market is at a critical juncture, marked by a growing dislocation between the physical and paper markets. While Western banks are still trying to manipulate silver prices via the paper market, physical demand is accelerating. This growing appetite for physical silver in the face of con...

Government bonds are no longer perceived as risk-free assets, and their long-term growth potential is now in doubt. In this context, accelerating the pace of debt emissions becomes a real challenge. If the Fed were in turn to intervene in very short maturities to artificially support Treasury emi...

The UK bond market is under pressure, in an unstable global context marked by friction between the Fed and the Treasury and high sensitivity to uncertainty. Physical gold is becoming an instrument of economic survival and a bulwark against the erratic decisions of the authorities.

In a climate of widespread mistrust of the dollar and US economic policy, a fundamental trend is gathering pace: de-dollarization. China, at the forefront of this strategy, is methodically reducing its dependence on the greenback while at the same time stepping up its purchases of gold and the in...

In a stagflationary environment — marked by sluggish growth, persistent inflation and growing consumer unease — the yellow metal is once again playing its role as a safe-haven asset.