Laurent Maurel

The downturn is now global and simultaneous: US consumption is running out of steam, unemployment is rising in Europe, household and business confidence is collapsing in China, while defaults are increasing and bond flows betray a growing flight for safety.

The stress observed in cryptocurrencies and silver is not a mere epiphenomenon: it is the first sign of a market regime that is beginning to strain beneath the surface.

The break in the Dollar Index below its long-term trend is not simply a technical accident. It reflects a much deeper change. In this context, precious metals are regaining their monetary function.

In an environment marked by persistent inflation, geopolitical tensions, and record government debt, the historical reflex would have been to seek refuge primarily in gold. However, it is equity ETFs and passive strategies that are capturing most of the inflows. Not out of deep conviction, but ou...

The rise in financial optimism comes at a time when the real economy is beginning to turn around. Historically, this type of dynamic precedes recessions. In this context, gold does not reflect a past crisis; it insures against a loss of future visibility.

With volatility no longer allowed to play its warning role, investors seek protection outside the system, independent of options and timing. Gold captures this long-term monetary mistrust, while silver, which is narrower and more sensitive to marginal flows, reacts more explosively.

2026 will be a year of truth: either the system absorbs the shock and reconfigures itself, or it breaks down. And it is in this rupture, rather than in continuity, that the real rotation of capital will take place.

We are facing an extremely rare situation: the VIX is close to its lowest level in a year, around 14, while the price of gold is reaching historic highs. Under normal circumstances, this coexistence does not exist.

Gold continues to trade at high levels, but it is silver that is attracting the most attention. Day after day, the silver price is reaching new highs, as if it were reflecting a latent tension and a growing need for protection in the face of an increasingly administered financial system.

Silver has just crossed a symbolic threshold – more than $60 to $61 per ounce for the first time in history – after jumping 100 to 110% since the beginning of 2025. This movement is spectacular, but it does not necessarily mark the end of the story.

By cutting domestic demand for cryptocurrencies, Beijing is automatically redirecting savings diversification toward the only officially approved alternative asset: physical gold.

In the past, during periods of nervousness, uncertainty, or obvious risk, volatility rose. Today, this mechanism is broken. In this environment, there is only one asset left that does its job of providing protection: physical gold.

What we are experiencing today is a cash crisis. The major bond crisis, the one that will call into question the sustainability of public debt, will undoubtedly come – but later. Gold, meanwhile, is navigating this landscape perfectly.

Gold reacts not to rhetoric, but to substance. The Busan summit was supposed to symbolize economic reconciliation between the world's two largest powers. But behind the facade of diplomatic appeasement, reality remains that of a fragmented world, where strategic tensions persist and confidence in...

The incident that occurred on the night of November 3 to 4 marks a real stress test for the entire crypto liquidity system. In this context, only one asset escapes the logic of chain collapse: physical gold.

At first glance, everything seems under control: stocks are holding steady and the U.S. economy is resilient. And yet, something is going wrong in the global financial system. In recent days, the cost of very short-term cash – the SOFR rate – has risen sharply.

The decline of the gold price simply reflects the scarcity of dollars. When financing tightens, funds temporarily sell their most liquid positions – including gold. Historically, these periods of consolidation in a stressful monetary environment always precede sharp recoveries.

While the stock markets are driven by algorithms and bitcoin is kept afloat by synthetic liquidity, the silver market highlights the divide between paper and reality.

The prices of gold and silver have just set new historical records, confirming the monetary regime shift that major global investors have been anticipating for several years.

With the US government shutdown, “fiscal QE” came to an abrupt halt. It comes at a time when the US Treasury has become the central player in providing liquidity to the system. The longer the situation drags on, the more the pipeline seizes up – and the greater the likelihood of an accident.