To protect ourselves from these unavoidable effects of the monetary policies implemented for more than 10 years, now is the time for a return to tangible assets for increasing numbers of investors.
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Gold is today at a price that still does not take into account what has happened these last months and what will happen with respect to the coming avalanche of Treasury auctions to come.
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Inflation expectations continue their dizzying increase: the 10-year expected inflation went up from 0.8% to 2.4% in only a few months... Against such a background, gold has, of course, continued its upward movement, following its worst first quarter since 1982.
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Every hyperinflationist event in history has resulted in a monetary collapse. It is not the increase in demand for goods and services or an aggressive rate policy that has caused these hyperinflations. These phenomena have always been due to poor monetary policies, involving currency devaluation. Hyperinflation occurs through a change in perception compared to the monetary policy of the central bank.
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Since January, gold has come back to the bottom of its consolidation flag, then in fact regained its bear trend set off in this dollar short squeeze. This was decision time for gold, at a crucial moment where we are witnessing a exhaustion of the dollar short squeeze and a cracking of the entire bond market, both at the same time. Within the next few days, gold is going to have to decide if it will regain its status as a safe haven.
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A wind of change is blowing for gold. Two weeks ago, precious metals prices were falling whereas yields on U.S Treasury bonds were rising. This week, sales of bonds continue but gold stopped its fall and started a rebound.
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At present, gold in any case is continuing its correction in this context of rising interest rates. Disengagement on gold ETFS funds continued last week after a record 12 consecutive days of decrease. The last liquidation of these ETFS that was so intense goes back to the correction of December 2016. Opinions about gold have never been this low in the past 5 years, with the Gold OPTIX index measuring investor optimism on the precious metal security has gone back below autumn 2019.
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Since last year, the Comex has become a physical gold delivery hub, which was not in the plans when this derivatives market was set up. The quantity of gold delivered to Comex over the last year will soon account for the market's remaining stocks.
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