The sales of futures on the COMEX market, now seen almost every day, are colliding with a background trend for the purchasing of gold by the other central banks, which are starting to lose patience and want to cover themselves in relation to the risks of devaluation of their assets in terms of state bonds and currencies, which are significantly impacted by the current levels of inflation.

Like many fixed-income securities, the gold prices are completely detached from supply and demand. The mechanism for determining prices is distorted by ‘tools’ that enable the monetary authorities to alter the perception of their inflationary monetary policies.

In the last few weeks, gold has not followed the curve of the rates and there is now a decorrelation between the 10-year rates and the gold price. Since 2009, the two indices have been following one another fairly closely, and the latest gaps between the curves of these two indices have always been sealed at a short maturity in the past. The last time the rates were at this level, with a dollar as weak as this, gold was at around $1950, meaning that there is fairly sizeable potential for a further rise for gold if this catching up were to take place.

The economic actors’ confidence regarding the central banks’ ability to correct this inflation, which they deem to be transitory, is certainly not open to question today. However, without rapid and specific action by these central banks (particularly on interest rates), this patience, which is also transitory, is at risk of wearing thin. The barometer of this confidence is gold.

What was it that caused the sheer scale of this fall? Did the Fed raise interest rates brusquely and sharply, leading to a reaction like this on gold? The conclusions of the Fed’s meeting last week are far from dramatic, though. Nonetheless, they had the effect of an electric shock.

The intervention by the central banks on the markets is scrambling the message. Assets that have become at risk, in this inflationary backdrop, are being given excessive valuations. By contrast, the values that protect against the upcoming inflation are still being evaluated at very low levels. At any event, this is a very favorable backdrop for assets like gold.

The “match” between the two camps (the inflationists versus those who are convinced of the transitory impact of the rise in prices) is leading, as one would logically expect, to this very volatile phase on the gold and silver metals markets.

The price of gold rose above $1900 at the start of the week and has since stabilized around this level. It is the first time this important threshold has been reached since last January. In terms of the monthly charts, gold is in a confirmed breakout of its consolidation “flag” which will have lasted 9 months.

Faced with this brutal and disorderly rise in inflation, the Fed no longer really has a good solution open to it: either it stops monetizing the debt and provokes a financial crisis, or it carries on monetizing the debt, thereby risking a monetary crisis.

For the time being, the breakout is contained, the gold prices are relatively controlled, and the figures for inflation and the value of the dollar ought to propel gold to greater heights, something that is not the case at the moment. This control of prices comes at a cost, however. Selling paper contracts on the Comex to keep the gold price from soaring is an increasingly costly move. The bullion banks have no choice, though: they must defend their short positions at any cost.

Copper is the thermometer of inflation. Gold is the thermometer of a loss of control by the monetary authorities. Controlled inflation (the phenomenon that made copper rise so high) was manageable, up to a point...but the same cannot be said for uncontrolled inflation, which is starting to have repercussions on the real economy.

It’s as if the market were finding it very hard to discern the potential for a rise in gold right now, even though we have never before been in such favorable conditions for the precious metals sector.

The investors who are buying gold today are protecting themselves from both of these risks: the risk of currency devaluation (gold is a safe haven when fiat currencies lose their value) and the risk that this bubble will burst. In relation to this last point, it should also be noted that gold has once again become a very attractive asset by comparison with all the stocks on the market.

The Silver Short Squeeze movement has shaken up all of the custodians of the metals, who must now respond to clients who are increasingly anxious about the authenticity of their metals accounts. We know that today, the silver market is founded on a derivatives system where there are far more virtual owners than there are ounces of metal available.

To protect ourselves from these unavoidable effects of the monetary policies implemented for more than 10 years, now is the time for a return to tangible assets for increasing numbers of investors.

Gold is today at a price that still does not take into account what has happened these last months and what will happen with respect to the coming avalanche of Treasury auctions to come.

Inflation expectations continue their dizzying increase: the 10-year expected inflation went up from 0.8% to 2.4% in only a few months... Against such a background, gold has, of course, continued its upward movement, following its worst first quarter since 1982.

Every hyperinflationist event in history has resulted in a monetary collapse. It is not the increase in demand for goods and services or an aggressive rate policy that has caused these hyperinflations. These phenomena have always been due to poor monetary policies, involving currency devaluation. Hyperinflation occurs through a change in perception compared to the monetary policy of the central bank.

Since January, gold has come back to the bottom of its consolidation flag, then in fact regained its bear trend set off in this dollar short squeeze. This was decision time for gold, at a crucial moment where we are witnessing a exhaustion of the dollar short squeeze and a cracking of the entire bond market, both at the same time. Within the next few days, gold is going to have to decide if it will regain its status as a safe haven.

A wind of change is blowing for gold. Two weeks ago, precious metals prices were falling whereas yields on U.S Treasury bonds were rising. This week, sales of bonds continue but gold stopped its fall and started a rebound.