Laurent Maurel

The gold market is becoming more physical, less manipulated and more transparent. The rush to buy physical gold is taking place against a backdrop of rising inflation.

Until recently, physical gold used to flow mainly from refineries to the BRICS countries. Now, over the past two months, it's the US market that's acting as a veritable vacuum cleaner, absorbing an ever-increasing share of the physical gold market.

Physical gold is no longer simply an investment; it is now the ultimate protection, ensuring the smooth running of the economy in the event of a sudden breakdown in the traditional financial system.

Physical gold now plays the same role in the United States as it did in China last year: a safe alternative in the face of economic and financial instability.

By bolstering its gold reserves, China is anticipating the risks of a weakening dollar, linked to budgetary pressures and possible monetary expansion needed to absorb the debt wall.

The year 2025 is off to a rough start for the sovereign debt market. Is the resurgence of inflation driving interest rates higher? In Europe, manufacturing activity is slowing, weakening employment, while in the United States, declining orders and consumption are heightening the risks of a global...

The question of the timing of the next rise in the gold price remains uncertain: at what point will a market crash, worsening household fragility or increased pressure on the banking system prompt the authorities to make a decisive pivot in monetary policy to avoid a systemic recession?

With $2 trillion in bonds, notes and bills maturing in 2025, plus another $2 trillion in annual budget deficits, gross financing needs total $4 trillion. The need to finance such a large amount of new debt is the main argument supporting the forecast of a rise in the price of gold in 2025.

The capitalisation of Fartcoin, nicknamed the "fart currency", recently reached $800 million. Meanwhile, the Chinese and Indians are taking massive refuge in physical gold to protect themselves against the devaluation of fiat currencies.

Central bank purchases of physical gold, as well as tensions on the silver market, are taking place against a backdrop of general indifference on the part of Western investors.

Europe’s economic situation is a matter of growing concern. Once a symbol of prosperity and cooperation, the European Union is now weakened by major economic and energy challenges. The continent’s two traditional pillars, France and Germany, are facing difficulties that could have profound reperc...

Physical gold naturally appears to be the preferred safe-haven investment in the face of the deficit-financing impasse. It is benefiting from both growing concerns about the worsening of this deficit and the potential repercussions for US Treasuries. The latter could be amplified by rising tensio...

There has never been so much money in circulation. Never have markets had so much liquidity to pursue assets at such high valuations, underpinned mainly by their ability to generate growth via the services associated with the products and offers they provide.

The German economy is suffering its sharpest fall in orders since the 2009 crisis, while global financial markets, particularly in the US, continue to soar.

Could Donald Trump's election put the brakes on gold's rise? In 2016, the Republican candidate's victory in the US presidential election led to a €100 drop in the price of gold in euros, with the price falling from €1,180 to €1,080 in the four weeks following the election.

The Fed has cut rates by 50 basis points, but so far this has proved to be a resounding failure: rates are rising, once again threatening the bond market and real estate. A few Nasdaq stocks are playing the role of safe havens, while the price of gold is still climbing silently and parabolically.

Just over a year ago, I wrote that physical gold had become more reliable than Treasury bills, a trend now confirmed by Bank of America, which anticipates a potential replacement of Treasury bills by gold as a safe-haven asset, despite JPMorgan's reservations.

The fall in China's property market and the rise in interest rates in the United States are prompting consumers to favour savings and shun property in favour of gold.

The US economy continues to grow thanks to debt- and credit-backed consumption, but this momentum is based on fragile foundations, with the risk of a downturn if the property or stock markets deteriorate.

UBS reiterates its recommendation to include a 5% allocation to gold in a diversified portfolio. In ten years, the price of gold in CHF has doubled: its performance against one of the world's strongest currencies is remarkable.