Laurent Maurel

As is often the case, the market today gives the illusion of control. But beneath the surface, the forces driving instability continue to build up.

The oil market is entering a phase where volatility is no longer a mere hiccup but a direct consequence of its structure. Recent price movements do not reflect a linear improvement or deterioration in fundamentals, but rather a growing inability of prices to simultaneously reflect both physical r...

The price of gold is currently under pressure, not because its fundamentals are being called into question, but due to forced selling.

While equity markets remain artificially propped up by low volatility, gold is consolidating. This phase does not reflect weakness, but rather a period of accumulation.

The Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's main energy arteries, is partially paralyzed. Even so, the price of gold is showing little reaction to the extreme volatility of oil prices. It remains focused on a deeper dynamic within the financial system: that of credit.

The gap between the euphoria in the equity markets and the first cracks emerging in certain areas of credit is striking. In this environment, gold plays the role of an insurance against a financial accident or a sudden reversal in liquidity.

What we are experiencing today goes beyond mere technological euphoria or fears of sector disruption. The AI cycle reveals a paradox: as intelligence becomes increasingly dematerialized, markets are rediscovering the value of the tangible.

Major technology stocks are showing signs of running out of steam. Conversely, flows into gold are taking on an almost parabolic momentum. Central banks are continuing their purchases, and ETFs are setting new records.

The downturn is now global and simultaneous: US consumption is running out of steam, unemployment is rising in Europe, household and business confidence is collapsing in China, while defaults are increasing and bond flows betray a growing flight for safety.

The stress observed in cryptocurrencies and silver is not a mere epiphenomenon: it is the first sign of a market regime that is beginning to strain beneath the surface.

The break in the Dollar Index below its long-term trend is not simply a technical accident. It reflects a much deeper change. In this context, precious metals are regaining their monetary function.

In an environment marked by persistent inflation, geopolitical tensions, and record government debt, the historical reflex would have been to seek refuge primarily in gold. However, it is equity ETFs and passive strategies that are capturing most of the inflows. Not out of deep conviction, but ou...

The rise in financial optimism comes at a time when the real economy is beginning to turn around. Historically, this type of dynamic precedes recessions. In this context, gold does not reflect a past crisis; it insures against a loss of future visibility.

With volatility no longer allowed to play its warning role, investors seek protection outside the system, independent of options and timing. Gold captures this long-term monetary mistrust, while silver, which is narrower and more sensitive to marginal flows, reacts more explosively.

2026 will be a year of truth: either the system absorbs the shock and reconfigures itself, or it breaks down. And it is in this rupture, rather than in continuity, that the real rotation of capital will take place.

We are facing an extremely rare situation: the VIX is close to its lowest level in a year, around 14, while the price of gold is reaching historic highs. Under normal circumstances, this coexistence does not exist.

Gold continues to trade at high levels, but it is silver that is attracting the most attention. Day after day, the silver price is reaching new highs, as if it were reflecting a latent tension and a growing need for protection in the face of an increasingly administered financial system.

Silver has just crossed a symbolic threshold – more than $60 to $61 per ounce for the first time in history – after jumping 100 to 110% since the beginning of 2025. This movement is spectacular, but it does not necessarily mark the end of the story.

By cutting domestic demand for cryptocurrencies, Beijing is automatically redirecting savings diversification toward the only officially approved alternative asset: physical gold.

In the past, during periods of nervousness, uncertainty, or obvious risk, volatility rose. Today, this mechanism is broken. In this environment, there is only one asset left that does its job of providing protection: physical gold.