Laurent Maurel

The German economy is suffering its sharpest fall in orders since the 2009 crisis, while global financial markets, particularly in the US, continue to soar.

Could Donald Trump's election put the brakes on gold's rise? In 2016, the Republican candidate's victory in the US presidential election led to a €100 drop in the price of gold in euros, with the price falling from €1,180 to €1,080 in the four weeks following the election.

The Fed has cut rates by 50 basis points, but so far this has proved to be a resounding failure: rates are rising, once again threatening the bond market and real estate. A few Nasdaq stocks are playing the role of safe havens, while the price of gold is still climbing silently and parabolically.

Just over a year ago, I wrote that physical gold had become more reliable than Treasury bills, a trend now confirmed by Bank of America, which anticipates a potential replacement of Treasury bills by gold as a safe-haven asset, despite JPMorgan's reservations.

The fall in China's property market and the rise in interest rates in the United States are prompting consumers to favour savings and shun property in favour of gold.

The US economy continues to grow thanks to debt- and credit-backed consumption, but this momentum is based on fragile foundations, with the risk of a downturn if the property or stock markets deteriorate.

UBS reiterates its recommendation to include a 5% allocation to gold in a diversified portfolio. In ten years, the price of gold in CHF has doubled: its performance against one of the world's strongest currencies is remarkable.

India imported 1,421 tons of silver in August, an increase of 641% on the previous year, bringing the year-to-date total to 6,148 tons.

The United States has just set two new world records: one for its debt and the other for its deficit. The announcement of a budgetary slippage has caused the price of gold to soar in recent days.

The price of gold in euros has just broken an all-time record! An ounce of gold is now worth €2,300, double the price it was five years ago. Gold is soaring while oil is plummeting. Meanwhile, the Chinese economy is slowing at a rate not seen since the last financial crisis.

Against the stagflationary backdrop and the start of a new cycle of defaults in the United States, gold is logically attracting new buyers.

The gold price, with its string of record highs, tells us that we are on the verge of seeing the detonator of this new inflationary phase. Gold is warning us that we are on the brink of another Fed monetary policy error.

Confirmation of a recession, triggered by an increase in defaults in the country, heralds gold's future outperformance of the classic 60/40 portfolio. This is probably when gold will begin to attract Western investors in a significant way.

China is once again causing concern among analysts. Fears of a deflationary wave originating in China are weighing on commodities and stimulating the accumulation of positions in gold ETFs.

August began with a financial earthquake in Japan. The Nikkei experienced a "Black Friday" with a drop of almost -15%. It all began when the Bank of Japan (BoJ) decided to raise rates at its last meeting, ending the negative rate policy with a rise to 0.25%.

Do Microsoft's results mark the end of a cycle for growth stocks? Will the prospect of lower rates be enough to reverse the current trend in investor sentiment towards technology stocks?

The US real estate market is paralyzed as it awaits a Fed rate cut, while the reduction of import duties on gold in India stimulates demand for precious metals.

Gold is currently benefiting from concerns over the dual problem of debt and deficit in the United States. The more tangible the signs of economic slowdown, the more gold will succeed in reaching highs.

Gold will probably continue to rise until ETF outstandings reach their highest levels, which is still a long way off. Especially as demand for physical gold remains very strong. Despite the high price of an ounce of gold, central banks continue to buy precious metals on a massive scale.

The global economic slowdown is having a direct impact on the accelerating depreciation of the Japanese currency. Under these conditions, the price of gold in yen continues its parabolic rise.