Laurent Maurel

Currently, the preferred scenario is that of a soft landing for the US economy, while the prospect of a recession is now largely dismissed by most analysts. The fact that the gold price remains above the $2,000 mark reflects concerns about US monetary and fiscal policy.

Gold is once again the preferred investment in Asia, to the detriment of the stock market and real estate. In the West, we're not seeing a gold rush, but rather a rush into technology stocks.

Inflation in the United States is creating tensions between the Fed and the Treasury on monetary policy, resulting in market repercussions with stock declines, bond yield increases, and a correction in gold due to sales in derivative markets.

Chinese investors continue to shun the stock market and the real estate sector. This week, the real estate crisis took on a new dimension with the liquidation of Evergrande. China's largest property developer was forced into bankruptcy due to the lack of a convincing restructuring plan, resulting...

Recent rises in inflation have plunged the continent into an unprecedented stalemate: the farmers' protest movement is mainly attributable to the consequences of this general decline in purchasing power recorded in Europe over recent quarters.

Chinese investors are abandoning their own stock market and seeking exposure to growth in the US and Japanese markets. Gold could be sold in the short term in a deflationary wave, but it would also serve as the ultimate refuge for international investors disappointed by a stock market they believ...

The latest U.S. inflation figures are well above predictions. The consumer price index (CPI) rose by +3.7% year-on-year in December. Inflation appears to be accelerating, exceeding the pace recorded at the same time last year.

Gold prices anticipate the shift in the investment cycle from growth stocks to tangible assets. The yellow metal also benefits from its safe-haven status in a context of economic uncertainty.

We may well see a debt refinancing crisis, and anticipating how we might overcome this impasse is difficult, given the uncertainty surrounding the potential intervention of central banks in the face of this debt wall.

The price of gold ends 2023 with a new record closing price. The yellow metal was one of the best-performing assets, up +16% for the year as a whole. The S&P 500 index did slightly better, but gold outperformed European equity markets.

The rejuvenation of gold buyers in China is explained by the slowdown in the property market, the weakness of equities and the currency, as well as low bank interest rates. Young Chinese, concerned about economic stagnation, are turning to gold as a financial refuge.

The Fed's change of tone offers a different outlook for precious metals: with the dollar weakening, fears of recession, lower rates and the threat of renewed inflation that a Fed pivot would generate, gold has every chance of resuming its upward trend as early as next year.

The economic situation in Germany is deteriorating at an alarming rate. French economic indicators are showing a deterioration, characterized by a sharp contraction in activity in the last quarter. Gold in euros seems to be taking advantage of this situation.

In the United States, real estate is no longer a safe haven due to the stagnation of the real estate market and the absence of investment incentives. In China, the growing disinterest in real estate has also changed savers' behaviour towards gold.

Even if the situation regarding private debt is not problematic at the moment, 2024 is likely to be a very different story: the wall of private debt is much harder to break through than the wall of public debt. These U.S. debt risks are the main reasons why gold prices are so high. The closer we...

The hope of a "pivot" by the Fed curbed the appreciation of the dollar, which had just set an all-time record against the Japanese yen. The depreciation of the dollar is benefiting the gold price, which is once again approaching its $2,000 resistance level.

Rising interest rates have led to a significant increase in the burden of public debt. The United States now has to pay over $1 trillion in interest, an amount that has doubled in just nine months. This burden is set to rise considerably further, as most of the debt is short-term, requiring refin...

Far removed from the turmoil of the bond markets, gold continues to move ahead without the slightest speculative excess, and in a climate of general indifference.The price of gold in yens is now rising exponentially, just as it would against any currency of a country in a sovereign crisis.

The relationship between gold and real rates broke down when real rates turned positive again. What counts now is the search for solvency, not the search for yield. The return of investment takes precedence over return on investment.

The rise in interest rates initiated by the Fed has had a devastating effect on bonds, which were massively purchased by banks, insurers and pension funds when rates were low. The question is whether this fragility in the banking and insurance sector is likely to trigger a credit crunch.