Mining

Parabolic moves always end in capitulation. Is it possible to go even further into this panic selling which now seems to feed itself, with long-term investors capitulating?

After the original drop in gold price from the top of $1,920 per ounce in 2011 to $1,180 per ounce in 2013, gold has started a sideways consolidation triangle pattern. Is this a correction, or is it just a pause within a move that will retrace the whole move since 2009? What does sentiment tell us?

If we look at the global gold demand it mostly splits in two: investment demand and jewellery demand. But is this a correct description of the actual gold’s demand?

The longest running gold index - the BGMI - recently hit new lows vs gold.

The gold miners’ good performance in 2014 bodes well for gold not having to worry about a bear market taking place, like in 2013, or about testing again its major $1,178 bottom.

Yesterday, the daily volume on the GDXJ Junior Miners Index beat all records, exceeding by 33% its highest historic value, and producing a 5.78% hike, five times the performance of gold!

Can we predict the price of gold by observing the gold mining index? As a reference for this article, I have chosen the Barron’s Gold Mining Index (BGMI), since it has been published since 1940 and thusly provides a long basis for analysis.

Charts by Nick Laird. Chinese gold production plus net imports

  This chart by itself shows how much investors’ sentiment about the gold miners has reached a peak of pessimism not seen since 1943. Miners selling so cheap in relation to gold is a sign of historical capitulation all over the sector. Their valuations, in terms of P/E and business value,...

In the newspapers, one can read a lot of stupid things about gold. They say that gold needs inflation in order to go up. They say that gold moves in an opposite direction to the dollar. Those things are true sometimes, but not always. There is no mathematical relation between the two. They say t...