Analysts have already proposed a calculation of gold's rate of return by comparing its value at a recent date with a more or less distant date (for example, from January 1, 2005 to January 1, 2024).
The problem is that this calculation method takes only one interval into account. It therefore only reflects a single, idealized situation: one in which the saver would have bought and sold exactly on those dates.
In contrast, wealth journalist Nicolas Delourme* has taken up the logic of an actuarial rate calculation, but taking into account all possible investment combinations between two years. In other words :
- From January 1, 1999 (the start of gold pricing in euros) to January 1, 2000, then similarly from 1999 to 2001, from 1999 to 2002, from 1999 to 2003, and so on until the interval from January 1, 1999 to January 1, 2024,
- Then from January 1, 2000 to January 1, 2001, then again from 2000 to 2002, 2000 to 2003 and so on until the interval from January 1, 2000 to January 1, 2024.
- And so on, starting with the years 2001, 2002, etc., up to the year 2023, to reach the unique and final interval, from January 1, 2023 to January 1, 2024.
The result is no longer a single interval, but 325 intervals, or as many possible investment periods for savers.
This logical, rigorous and exhaustive method makes it possible to establish an average return on gold that is statistically much more accurate, and much more in line with the realities of a saver's life, for a result that is all the more convincing.
In fact, this average of +8.69% per annum means that a saver who bought and sold gold at any time between January 1, 1999 and January 1, 2024 would have grown richer on average at an actuarial rate of 8.69% per annum.
So how much has the value of gold risen per year, on average, since 1999?
Answer: +8.69% per year.
* Calculations, results and comments: available in the 2024 Report on the Investigation of the True Returns on Gold, by Nicolas Delourme, published by Editions Jean de Portal.
Reproduction, in whole or in part, is authorized as long as it includes all the text hyperlinks and a link back to the original source.
The information contained in this article is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell.
