Savings

Derivatives can only be netted down on the basis that counterparties pay up. But in a real systemic crisis, counterparties will disappear and gross exposure will remain gross.

Gold is today at a price that still does not take into account what has happened these last months and what will happen with respect to the coming avalanche of Treasury auctions to come.

Inflation expectations continue their dizzying increase: the 10-year expected inflation went up from 0.8% to 2.4% in only a few months... Against such a background, gold has, of course, continued its upward movement, following its worst first quarter since 1982.

I often hear complaints that gold is a useless investment since it doesn’t go up fast enough. Bitcoin and Tesla are much more exciting so why should an investor hold gold – an incredibly dull investment for the majority of people. If I tell investors that it is absolutely critical to hold gold for wealth preservation purposes as the world financial system is the biggest bubble in history, most would ignore or ridicule me. And if I tell them that the dollar and most currencies are down 97-99% since 1971 against gold and down 85% since 2000, they would yawn. They are only interested in their nominal stock market gains not understanding that they have gained nothing in real terms.

Central banks became net buyers of gold in 2010, just after the financial crisis, with gold remaining an attractive class of assets for central bank reserve managers. Amid the uncertainties associated with Covid-19, the yellow metal acts as a “safe heaven” that can be stored and sold in case of liquidity problems.

With pressures on stocks and bonds, the precious metals are falling in sympathy as often is the case at the beginning of falling markets. I have been stating for 20 years, that fundamentally gold and silver are in a very strong uptrend, supported totally by central bank’s destruction of paper money. Within major uptrends, there are always corrections and some are vicious.

This deluge of liquidity with no counterpart in the real economy produces bubbles (shares, real estate in particular), crashes, and eventually a bubble on all prices, i.e. inflation, then hyperinflation if things really get out of hand.

The secular bull market in stocks is very likely to finish in 2021. This turn could be at any time. Just like in 2000, it will all happen very quickly and this time it will be the start of a very long and vicious secular bear market. Real assets like gold, silver and platinum will be investors’ life insurance. To hang on to stocks and bonds will totally destroy your wealth and your health.

When a world already in trouble was hit by a severe financial crisis in September 2019, the dose of debt was already excessive. But as the Fed and the ECB opened the money spigots fully, they filled the world with poisoned or fake money. The BY team (Biden & Yellen) will now be certain to finish this process with their profligate spending plans.

Currencies, already debased, will hit the basement of time, and the current tricks used to keep paper gold down won’t prevent physical gold from getting the last laugh, as well natural climb northward.