Gold

The current high inflation could theoretically transform into hyperinflation, disinflation, stagflation, or deflation. What does each mean for gold?

The sales of futures on the COMEX market, now seen almost every day, are colliding with a background trend for the purchasing of gold by the other central banks, which are starting to lose patience and want to cover themselves in relation to the risks of devaluation of their assets in terms of state bonds and currencies, which are significantly impacted by the current levels of inflation.

In the short term, the paper gold market certainly harms the only genuine gold market which is physical. But artificial markets or instruments have never survived in history. Just look at the fact that every fiat currency in history which has failed. And so will paper gold. It is only a matter of time.

After years without substantially changing the amount of gold in its international asset reserves, the Brazilian Central Bank headed by Roberto Campos Neto bought 41.8 tons of the metal in June.

The British government sought Monday to prevent Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro from gaining access to nearly $2 billion of gold held by the Bank of England as the U.K. Supreme Court started hearing a case that hinges on the question of who should be considered the Latin American nation’s president.

The real interest rates should remain low, so gold prices shouldn’t drop like a stone. Actually, in the longer run, when inflation creates some economic problems while the economic growth slows down, the yellow metal could finally benefit from the stagflationary conditions.

Like many fixed-income securities, the gold prices are completely detached from supply and demand. The mechanism for determining prices is distorted by ‘tools’ that enable the monetary authorities to alter the perception of their inflationary monetary policies.

With the foregoing risks at play, the best tactics for the current economic pitch involve longer-term preparation, a respect for historical lessons and a fundamental recognition that further and inevitable monetary and fiscal expansion can only mean further currency debasement and hence the longer-term re-pricing (i.e., rise) in gold valuation.

There are two dimensions to the global de-dollarization that is taking place: a digital one, and a golden one. Let it be noted that China, as the primary initiator of CBDCs and the number one consumer and importer of gold in the world, has every chance of doing well out of this Great Game.

It seems that gold is reacting now more to the decrease in the bond yields rather than to the changes in the US or EU monetary policies. As long as the interest rates are declining, gold is catching its breath. But this decrease may be temporary, so better watch out! Powell’s testimonies to Congress next week could provide us with more clues about gold’s outlook.