Gold

The rise in financial optimism comes at a time when the real economy is beginning to turn around. Historically, this type of dynamic precedes recessions. In this context, gold does not reflect a past crisis; it insures against a loss of future visibility.

As it does at the start of every year, Saxo Bank has unveiled its “Outrageous Predictions”: Beijing would launch an offshore yuan indexed to gold, which would thus become a trusted currency for trade and reserves, competing directly with the dollar.

With an increase of nearly 150% last year, silver is making a spectacular comeback. It remains to be seen whether this momentum will continue in 2026, as the white metal remains strategic.

Gold closed the year at $4,325 and Silver at $71.47. The significance of these annual closing values cannot be overstated — they are truly historic. And as we'll see in the following charts, the party has just begun!

With volatility no longer allowed to play its warning role, investors seek protection outside the system, independent of options and timing. Gold captures this long-term monetary mistrust, while silver, which is narrower and more sensitive to marginal flows, reacts more explosively.

The evolution of the gold price in 2026 remains conditioned by the prospect of lower key interest rates in the United States, changes in liquidity and demand for investment, jewelry, and central banks.

2026 will be a year of truth: either the system absorbs the shock and reconfigures itself, or it breaks down. And it is in this rupture, rather than in continuity, that the real rotation of capital will take place.

Security must now be a central criterion for any gold holder, alongside price, purchase volume, portfolio allocation, intended holding period, and so on. Neglecting this aspect will become increasingly costly, as recent events starkly demonstrate.

We are facing an extremely rare situation: the VIX is close to its lowest level in a year, around 14, while the price of gold is reaching historic highs. Under normal circumstances, this coexistence does not exist.

Ray Dalio: "It seems to me indisputably true that gold is a money and it is the money that is least at risk of being devalued and/or confiscated. You should think of gold as being a fundamental money that you should own at least some of."