Inflation

The whole American economy in 2020 has been an illusion because the whole system is bankrupt.

With pressures on stocks and bonds, the precious metals are falling in sympathy as often is the case at the beginning of falling markets. I have been stating for 20 years, that fundamentally gold and silver are in a very strong uptrend, supported totally by central bank’s destruction of paper money. Within major uptrends, there are always corrections and some are vicious.

Since March 2020, inflation expectations have been rising and so did the price of gold. But, from March until September the nominal 10-year Treasury rate barely moved (around 0.6%), after which it began to rise. Since October 2020 the 10-year Treasury rate is rising in a fashion that makes the TIPS rate go up, and thus gold down. At the time of writing the 10-year Treasury rate is roughly 1.6%.

This deluge of liquidity with no counterpart in the real economy produces bubbles (shares, real estate in particular), crashes, and eventually a bubble on all prices, i.e. inflation, then hyperinflation if things really get out of hand.

The macro stage is set. The genie is out of the bottle. The list of macro, fundamental and technical reasons to be long precious metals today is extensive. It is more than just a “short squeeze” in silver.

Looking forward five years out and more, this trend of negative real yields will likely increase, and to see gold double in price from its recent highs in the 2020’s would be far less of a surprise than the multiples we’ve already seen in far more hysterical price moves in names like Tesla or BTC.

Egon von Greyerz and Matthew Piepenburg discuss the critical relationship between rising gold prices and negative real (inflation-adjusted) yields. Throughout the 20th century, whenever the rate of CPI inflation grossly outpaced Treasury yields, gold’s price saw dramatic climbs.

The secular bull market in stocks is very likely to finish in 2021. This turn could be at any time. Just like in 2000, it will all happen very quickly and this time it will be the start of a very long and vicious secular bear market. Real assets like gold, silver and platinum will be investors’ life insurance. To hang on to stocks and bonds will totally destroy your wealth and your health.

Our antidote to the dying paper wealth of all global paper currencies, of course is physical gold. This is no secret, and to some, perhaps even an illogical, and even outdated bias.

Although the expectations of higher fiscal stimulus plunged gold prices in January, more government spending – and expansion in budget deficits and public debt – could ultimately turn out to be supportive factors for gold. Especially if easy fiscal policy will be accompanied by the accommodative monetary policy – in particular quantitative easing and a rising Fed’s balance sheet – and inflation.