A Golden Indicator Worth Knowing

Egon von Greyerz and Matthew Piepenburg discuss the critical relationship between rising gold prices and negative real (inflation-adjusted) yields. Throughout the 20th century, whenever the rate of CPI inflation grossly outpaced Treasury yields, gold’s price saw dramatic climbs. This can occur when yields are artificially repressed via Yield Curve Control (the case today, much like the 1940’s) or when yields and rates skyrocket (as in the 1970’s). So long as inflation is higher than yields, gold advances in negative real-rate environments. Matt reminds, for example, that gold’s recent surge between mid-2018 and mid-2020 occurred when yields dropped from +1% to negative 1.08% in the same period. The conversation thus turns to tomorrow, and thus equally to the topic of inflation and more negative real rates ahead. This is because inflation’s rise relative to yields is the critical factor. Here, Egon and Matt discuss more cases for rising CPI inflation, despite the openly rigged CPI scale in use today. In particular, they discuss the rising commodity prices in corn, timber, cattle etc.—all of which scream rising inflation moving into late 2021 and beyond, despite every effort by the bogus CPI scale to accurately report the same.