Rates

While equity markets remain artificially propped up by low volatility, gold is consolidating. This phase does not reflect weakness, but rather a period of accumulation.

The conflict in Iran reminds us that the world has truly entered a new era. The recurrence of wars is accompanied by persistent inflationary risks and a profound redefinition of global balances. How might financial markets and gold prices react?

The gap between the euphoria in the equity markets and the first cracks emerging in certain areas of credit is striking. In this environment, gold plays the role of an insurance against a financial accident or a sudden reversal in liquidity.

The downturn is now global and simultaneous: US consumption is running out of steam, unemployment is rising in Europe, household and business confidence is collapsing in China, while defaults are increasing and bond flows betray a growing flight for safety.

The evolution of the gold price in 2026 remains conditioned by the prospect of lower key interest rates in the United States, changes in liquidity and demand for investment, jewelry, and central banks.

2026 will be a year of truth: either the system absorbs the shock and reconfigures itself, or it breaks down. And it is in this rupture, rather than in continuity, that the real rotation of capital will take place.

What we are experiencing today is a cash crisis. The major bond crisis, the one that will call into question the sustainability of public debt, will undoubtedly come – but later. Gold, meanwhile, is navigating this landscape perfectly.

At first glance, everything seems under control: stocks are holding steady and the U.S. economy is resilient. And yet, something is going wrong in the global financial system. In recent days, the cost of very short-term cash – the SOFR rate – has risen sharply.

The decline of the gold price simply reflects the scarcity of dollars. When financing tightens, funds temporarily sell their most liquid positions – including gold. Historically, these periods of consolidation in a stressful monetary environment always precede sharp recoveries.

France's public debt is mainly held by foreign investors and this is precisely what worries senators, the French Ministry of Finance, and the government: a loss of confidence among international investors would cause interest rates to skyrocket immediately.