Rates

At first glance, everything seems under control: stocks are holding steady and the U.S. economy is resilient. And yet, something is going wrong in the global financial system. In recent days, the cost of very short-term cash – the SOFR rate – has risen sharply.

The decline of the gold price simply reflects the scarcity of dollars. When financing tightens, funds temporarily sell their most liquid positions – including gold. Historically, these periods of consolidation in a stressful monetary environment always precede sharp recoveries.

France's public debt is mainly held by foreign investors and this is precisely what worries senators, the French Ministry of Finance, and the government: a loss of confidence among international investors would cause interest rates to skyrocket immediately.

Since the beginning of the year, the greenback has already fallen by nearly 10%, reaching a new low. The dollar's weakness is not the result of an external shock, but rather a deliberate action by the authorities to preserve financial stability.

Fitch's downgrade of France's debt rating last Friday was expected. It remains to be seen whether Moody's and Standard & Poor's will follow suit on October 24 and November 28, which seems quite likely.

France is going through a critical period in its history. The country's democratic and political crisis is now compounded by the possibility of a financial crisis.

Mitch Vexler, a real estate developer turned whistleblower, detailed what he considers to be a ticking time bomb at the heart of the US financial system: the way property taxes fuel public school funding and school bonds.

The long-term outlook – sustained inflation and long-term interest rates anchored on an upward trajectory – is one of the pillars supporting gold prices over the long term. This is particularly true given that, at this stage, no one is really significantly exposed to it.

The obvious loss of effectiveness of the Bank of Japan's interventions is reflected in the immediate reaction of assets deemed to be barometers of confidence, foremost among them gold in local currency.

Government bonds are no longer perceived as risk-free assets, and their long-term growth potential is now in doubt. In this context, accelerating the pace of debt emissions becomes a real challenge. If the Fed were in turn to intervene in very short maturities to artificially support Treasury emi...