Rates

The downturn is now global and simultaneous: US consumption is running out of steam, unemployment is rising in Europe, household and business confidence is collapsing in China, while defaults are increasing and bond flows betray a growing flight for safety.

The evolution of the gold price in 2026 remains conditioned by the prospect of lower key interest rates in the United States, changes in liquidity and demand for investment, jewelry, and central banks.

2026 will be a year of truth: either the system absorbs the shock and reconfigures itself, or it breaks down. And it is in this rupture, rather than in continuity, that the real rotation of capital will take place.

What we are experiencing today is a cash crisis. The major bond crisis, the one that will call into question the sustainability of public debt, will undoubtedly come – but later. Gold, meanwhile, is navigating this landscape perfectly.

At first glance, everything seems under control: stocks are holding steady and the U.S. economy is resilient. And yet, something is going wrong in the global financial system. In recent days, the cost of very short-term cash – the SOFR rate – has risen sharply.

The decline of the gold price simply reflects the scarcity of dollars. When financing tightens, funds temporarily sell their most liquid positions – including gold. Historically, these periods of consolidation in a stressful monetary environment always precede sharp recoveries.

France's public debt is mainly held by foreign investors and this is precisely what worries senators, the French Ministry of Finance, and the government: a loss of confidence among international investors would cause interest rates to skyrocket immediately.

Since the beginning of the year, the greenback has already fallen by nearly 10%, reaching a new low. The dollar's weakness is not the result of an external shock, but rather a deliberate action by the authorities to preserve financial stability.

Fitch's downgrade of France's debt rating last Friday was expected. It remains to be seen whether Moody's and Standard & Poor's will follow suit on October 24 and November 28, which seems quite likely.

France is going through a critical period in its history. The country's democratic and political crisis is now compounded by the possibility of a financial crisis.