Financial markets

The price of gold ends 2023 with a new record closing price. The yellow metal was one of the best-performing assets, up +16% for the year as a whole. The S&P 500 index did slightly better, but gold outperformed European equity markets.

As my last report for 2023, I wanted to hit the big issues blunt in the face—from debt and sovereign bond markets to themes on the USD, inflation, risk markets and physical gold.

The rejuvenation of gold buyers in China is explained by the slowdown in the property market, the weakness of equities and the currency, as well as low bank interest rates. Young Chinese, concerned about economic stagnation, are turning to gold as a financial refuge.

Real estate prices in France are falling, but have we seen the last of expensive housing? Far from it! Price distortion has reached a level that will take a long time to resolve. And this rise in property prices is a global phenomenon.

In a recessionary environment, gold has a history of statistically outperforming other assets, and could prove to be a rather interesting choice in this context.

This week we'll look at the fascinating 100-year chart of the United States Inflation Rate as well as long-term charts of inflation-sensitive Silver and Oil to see if we can find clues about where inflation could be headed next.

The Fed's change of tone offers a different outlook for precious metals: with the dollar weakening, fears of recession, lower rates and the threat of renewed inflation that a Fed pivot would generate, gold has every chance of resuming its upward trend as early as next year.

The interest rate hikes implemented by central banks since the resurgence of inflation have appeared to be the norm. However, it is a revolution in the making. After decades of falling rates, they are now rising sharply, raising fears of unprecedented financial and economic risks.

The economic situation in Germany is deteriorating at an alarming rate. French economic indicators are showing a deterioration, characterized by a sharp contraction in activity in the last quarter. Gold in euros seems to be taking advantage of this situation.

The price of gold beats its record, both in dollars and euros. Bitcoin climbs, but remains far from its 2021 high. At the same time, the stock market is making some headway, and housing is more or less depressed across the globe. Something is going on. Aside from cyclical explanations (a slowdown...