Financial markets

The incident that occurred on the night of November 3 to 4 marks a real stress test for the entire crypto liquidity system. In this context, only one asset escapes the logic of chain collapse: physical gold.

At first glance, everything seems under control: stocks are holding steady and the U.S. economy is resilient. And yet, something is going wrong in the global financial system. In recent days, the cost of very short-term cash – the SOFR rate – has risen sharply.

The decline of the gold price simply reflects the scarcity of dollars. When financing tightens, funds temporarily sell their most liquid positions – including gold. Historically, these periods of consolidation in a stressful monetary environment always precede sharp recoveries.

While the stock markets are driven by algorithms and bitcoin is kept afloat by synthetic liquidity, the silver market highlights the divide between paper and reality.

The near-universal refusal to lend silver, except at rates approximately 600 times above the average, suggests the occurrence of a major short squeeze.

With the US government shutdown, “fiscal QE” came to an abrupt halt. It comes at a time when the US Treasury has become the central player in providing liquidity to the system. The longer the situation drags on, the more the pipeline seizes up – and the greater the likelihood of an accident.

For two years, observers have been puzzled by a paradox: while the Fed is reducing the size of its balance sheet through quantitative tightening (QT), the M2 money supply is on the rise. The key to this mystery lies in the growing role of money market funds (MMFs).

Gold continues to reach new heights. And yet, interest among retail investors, particularly in Western countries, remains very low. To understand these dynamics, we interviewed John Reade, one of the world's leading gold market strategists.

Since the beginning of the year, the greenback has already fallen by nearly 10%, reaching a new low. The dollar's weakness is not the result of an external shock, but rather a deliberate action by the authorities to preserve financial stability.

Fitch's downgrade of France's debt rating last Friday was expected. It remains to be seen whether Moody's and Standard & Poor's will follow suit on October 24 and November 28, which seems quite likely.