Rates

For at least half a century, the world has been in a process of self-destruction. As the decline accelerates, the next phase of 5-10 years will include major political, social, economic as well as wealth – destruction.

For the time being, although the U.S. economic numbers are not impressive, they do show some resilience, especially on the consumer side. Unfortunately, the situation in Europe is quite different. The geopolitical event of the week is China's dramatic shift in rhetoric toward the United States.

Gold is still very high relative to rates, probably because of the US fiscal risk and new inflationary expectations. This strength is also explained by the worsening geopolitical context and the stalemate in the Ukraine. Any threat of new sanctions now acts as a support for the price of gold.

Gold was a far more loyal asset than stocks and bonds in the turbulent times of 2022; and given that 2023 portends to be even worse, we can expect better loyalty from this so-called “barbarous relic” of the past.

We are experiencing a 2008 crisis in reverse. In 2008, the risk came from the banks and spread to households and businesses. The government intervened to restore the stability of the entire system. Today, the risk comes from the State. It is the government that has to ensure the survival of busin...

The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has been raging for almost a year now and there is no sign of a return to peace. On the contrary, it could get bogged down in the coming months and cost the lives of thousands of additional souls. Because this war is the reflection of an economic system that is crac...

Regardless of the extent of the economic slowdown, and the extent of future demand, metal supply is being revised downwards in most markets. Forecasts for 2023 suggest that inventory levels will not follow the usual intrinsic demand cycle. Indeed, we are already seeing real "runs" in some markets...

As the hegemony of the US is coming to an end, the dominance of the decadent West is moving quickly to the East and South. Commodity based countries like the enlarged BRICS will dominate for the next few decades and probably longer. Oil and gas will form the base of this shift but also many other...

Despite the positive effect of inflation on these payroll tax receipts, the amount the government has to pay to pay down its debts and for its public spending programs is far too high for these inflationary revenue increases to affect the overall figure: the United States is in a budgetary bind.

Matthew Piepenburg weaves together the various threads of historical cycles, political psychology and the hard math of cancerous global debt to make better sense of uniquely challenging times.