Supply & Demand

As my last report for 2023, I wanted to hit the big issues blunt in the face—from debt and sovereign bond markets to themes on the USD, inflation, risk markets and physical gold.

The rejuvenation of gold buyers in China is explained by the slowdown in the property market, the weakness of equities and the currency, as well as low bank interest rates. Young Chinese, concerned about economic stagnation, are turning to gold as a financial refuge.

Real estate prices in France are falling, but have we seen the last of expensive housing? Far from it! Price distortion has reached a level that will take a long time to resolve. And this rise in property prices is a global phenomenon.

In a recessionary environment, gold has a history of statistically outperforming other assets, and could prove to be a rather interesting choice in this context.

This week we'll look at the fascinating 100-year chart of the United States Inflation Rate as well as long-term charts of inflation-sensitive Silver and Oil to see if we can find clues about where inflation could be headed next.

The economic situation in Germany is deteriorating at an alarming rate. French economic indicators are showing a deterioration, characterized by a sharp contraction in activity in the last quarter. Gold in euros seems to be taking advantage of this situation.

The price of gold beats its record, both in dollars and euros. Bitcoin climbs, but remains far from its 2021 high. At the same time, the stock market is making some headway, and housing is more or less depressed across the globe. Something is going on. Aside from cyclical explanations (a slowdown...

Gold's resistance, which prevented any monthly close above $1,995, was breached, closing at $2,035 on Thursday 30 November. Taking advantage of the gold rally, the silver price broke through the oblique resistance that has held it up since its 2011 high.

After falling into the mid-$1,800s this fall, the Gold price has taken off and is once again threatening its All Time High. With all eyes on Gold, Silver is quietly flying under the radar as it usually does prior to big advances.

In the United States, real estate is no longer a safe haven due to the stagnation of the real estate market and the absence of investment incentives. In China, the growing disinterest in real estate has also changed savers' behaviour towards gold.