In the current framework gold is priced based on the 10-year TIPS yield. In my view, the current framework becomes more nonsensical the longer the TIPS yield stays below zero. At the time of writing the TIPS yield is –0.74%.

Averaging stock market capitalization to GDP ratios from seventeen developed economies over the past 150 years reveals the world has never witnessed an equity bubble of the current magnitude.

Obviously, (ex-post) real rates are very important to the gold price. In the 1970s gold skyrocketed when real rates for two times in a row hit -5%. Can it happen again if inflation proves not be transitory and real rates stay negative?

How the physical gold price is set, and how physical and derivates markets around the world are connected and interact.

Since March 2020, inflation expectations have been rising and so did the price of gold. But, from March until September the nominal 10-year Treasury rate barely moved (around 0.6%), after which it began to rise. Since October 2020 the 10-year Treasury rate is rising in a fashion that makes the TIPS rate go up, and thus gold down. At the time of writing the 10-year Treasury rate is roughly 1.6%.

For the first time ever the total value of the U.S. equity market is worth twice as much as the real economy. A true financial bubble. Previous highs of the equity to GDP ratio were followed by significant gains in the price of gold. This time around I expect the gold price to rise as well.

Since November 2020, the central bank of Uzbekistan (CBU) issues sealed gold bars with a QR-code for real time verification. With these new bars CBU aims to stimulate gold to be used as a store of value, as well as promote the circulation of gold.

Gold is a political metal. “Whoever has the gold makes the rules,” as the saying goes. Because gold serves as the backstop of the international financial system, the global distribution of gold influences the balance of power. This is true for gold ownership, but it also applies to storage locations. The more of its gold reserves Germany stores at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the more leverage the U.S. has over Germany.

Many years of loose and unconventional monetary policy have severely damaged financial markets and the global economy. Currently, central banks find themselves cornered, as the financial system is drowning in debt and addicted to ever easier money. Gold, however, provides multiple solutions.