1914–2025: When History Repeats Itself

Some dates remain in history. Some dates also erase history. Everyone remembers that World War I broke out on June 28, 1914, with the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand. But this war, like all others, was the result of events that had been unfolding over a long period of time.

History repeats itself all too often. And the era we are living in is, in many ways, similar to the period leading up to the Great War. Crises are multiplying and intertwining, powers are coming into conflict, divisions of all kinds are becoming more pronounced, isolationism is becoming a reality once again, and nothing seems to serve peace and unity.

Above all, we have been witnessing widespread rearmament for several years now. Despite historic deficits, defense budgets are growing steadily around the world. This year, global military spending will reach nearly $3 trillion, a record amount.  For, let us remember, the unprecedented rise in global debt is prompting countries to seek new sources of growth to repay their loans, with arms production being the only sector capable of generating continuous growth... Faced with this increase in production, imperialism of Empires is rapidly resurging and new conflicts are naturally emerging. Where Austria-Hungary and Russia fought over the Balkans at the beginning of the 20th century, today it is Ukraine, the Middle East, and tomorrow another state, that are becoming the nerve centers where the great powers clash.

In this same quest, alliances and blocs are formed to bring about a new world order. On the eve of World War I, the world was divided between the Triple Entente (France, United Kingdom, Russia) and the Triple Alliance (Germany, Austria-Hungary, Italy). Today, we can see a similar division between two major axes: on one side, the West, represented by all NATO countries, and on the other, the BRICS countries, dominated by China and Russia. Similarly, the world's two leading powers are in direct competition at all levels: whereas in 1914, the United Kingdom and the United States were vying for control of key markets, resources, and sea routes in the midst of the industrial revolution, today's confrontation between the United States and China against the backdrop of technological and financial revolution is reflected in competition over new innovations and the most strategic products as well as the trade and currency war between the two countries.

In this period of great upheaval, as the old world fades away, it goes without saying that the decline of hegemonic power is accelerating. Whereas in 1914, the United Kingdom was entering a period of obvious decline in the face of slowing growth and a loss of confidence in the stability of the British economy and power, leading to a fall in the markets; the United States is now exposed at any moment to the risk of a financial or monetary crisis, under the weight of a debt that has become uncontrollable—more than $38 trillion—and a power that is held together only by force.

In this limbo, countries' economic capabilities are put to the test. In 1914, the powers involved believed that the war would last only a few months and that their gold reserves, then the reference currency, would enable them to finance the war effort until its end. But the opposite happened: the war dragged on and the central banks' gold reserves were quickly depleted. Many countries were then forced to issue paper money and borrow heavily, particularly from the United States, making that country the new dominant superpower. The rest is history: many countries, including Germany, experienced soaring prices throughout the period 1914-1918, culminating in a period of hyperinflation.

The same scenario is unfolding today, both in the United States and in European countries, except that currency is no longer defined by gold but created by debt. Budgets, now focused on the war economy, are becoming so deficit-ridden, in a context of historic debt, that they threaten at any moment to trigger a crisis of confidence in the currency. Inflation is already on the rise in several countries, particularly on the other side of the Atlantic, where the end of the dollar's hegemony is gradually becoming apparent—as was the fall of the pound sterling in 1914. Thus, as during the First World War, nothing can rule out currency crises in the coming years...

These ruptures are not only external but above all, internal. In addition to international conflicts, there are social tensions within the countries involved. The continued accumulation of wealth by a section of the population has led, as in the last century, to an unprecedented increase in inequality. The richest 1% now own nearly 50% of the world's wealth. Under these conditions, social divisions are created and new scapegoats are singled out. Similarly, some political movements or parties are dying out while others are emerging or reappearing, as evidenced by the resurgence of nationalist parties in the United Kingdom, the United States, and soon in France.

Everything now points to the worst, although the best may yet happen. Every new conflict threatens global stability, and every new event risks triggering widespread unrest. This could be the result of a new war, a large-scale cyberattack, the assassination of a president... Who could have predicted the state of the world today if the assassination attempt on President Trump had been successful?

There are striking similarities between the current period and the period leading up to the First World War. What we are witnessing is not simply a clash of powers or a war of civilizations, but a crisis of the global economy, a crisis of capitalism that history has seen before, but whose scale is unprecedented this time around due to the issues it raises.

However, the future is never set in stone. Despite growing militarism and the crises of all kinds that we are currently experiencing, a peace plan bringing together the major powers is still possible. It would serve to define a fair and balanced world order for the coming decades, with a long-term vision. It should be complemented by a conference aimed at establishing a new international financial system, organized this time before the worst-case scenario occurs—unlike in the last century, when the Genoa agreements were not signed until 1922. Such a plan would lay the foundations for a peaceful world, provided that it respects the natural order of things without seeking to defy human limitations.