Global Geopolitics: What to Expect in 2026?

Everyone can see and feel it: history is accelerating faster than ever before. At a time when global debt has reached historic highs and both production and consumption have increased tenfold, the established order is being shaken up and political decisions are defying all logic. Conflicts are multiplying around the world and new, less predictable ones are emerging. As 2026 begins with new national and international tensions, what might this year look like in geopolitical terms?

The current period responds to historical dynamics that transcend it. We are at the end of a cycle, where phenomena similar to those we have already experienced are returning: record deficits, high debt, rising public spending, declining growth, unprecedented inequality, and, last but not least, an increase in wars.

The first observation takes us across the Atlantic, where decisions continue to dictate the course of world events. The American Empire, the most indebted country, is showing clear signs of decline. In an attempt to resist, it is dragging other countries down with it (as all hegemonic powers have done in the past) through the most brutal imperialism. After intervening in Venezuela just three days after the new year, President Donald Trump threatened several Latin American countries and announced his intention to take control of Greenland, the land of his "allies"... Behind these choices and ambitions lies an obvious principle that has held sway in the United States since the end of World War II: American hegemony is based on the absence of limits, as demonstrated by the end of the Bretton Woods agreements and the gold standard, making the almighty dollar a currency with unlimited creative potential. More than ever, the American economy reflects this ideology: the country's debt, now over $38 trillion, is growing exponentially every day, while the deficit continues to rise. With public spending increasing faster than revenue, the country is seeking to delay its decline and preserve the hegemony of the dollar by finding sources of growth outside its borders, hence its control over the resources of other countries (oil in Venezuela, rare earths in Greenland).

The year 2026 is therefore likely to be marked by increased use of force on every continent. What we are witnessing is not a return to empires, nor a war of civilizations, but rather a crisis at the end of a cycle and the imposition of a single ideology throughout the world, that of the law of the strongest dictated by the world's leading power. Latin America is the first victim today, Europe could be tomorrow, and soon Asia, particularly Taiwan. For in the same struggle to preserve American supremacy, Trump intends to weaken his main rivals, China first and foremost.

In this period of uncertainty, the world is rapidly changing. A new order is emerging, as demonstrated by the recent rapprochement between Canada and China. Alliances between Western countries (with the exception of the United States) and those in the South are accelerating. It is becoming increasingly clear that the latter will be at the heart of decision-making in the coming decades, as they already account for more than half of global GDP and more than two-thirds of the world's population. The central banks of these countries continue to accumulate gold at an increasing rate in preparation for the establishment of a new financial system.

At the heart of this shift, Europe is seeking to take a new direction. Since the US administration's threat to Greenland, European countries have said they are ready to turn their backs on their supposed “historic ally,” notably by sending soldiers to Greenland and possibly selling US bonds. They are, in fact, the new financiers of US debt and therefore of the dollar's exorbitant privilege since China, Russia, and many other countries have de-dollarized. Europe holds a total of nearly $3 trillion in Treasury bonds, representing less than 10% of the country's total debt. But the idea that Europe could turn against the United States is unrealistic, for the simple reason that European countries are dependent on the United States whether in financial terms (European banks are dollarized), energy (Europe buys American shale gas), industry (a large part of European networks and infrastructure are dependent on American software), military, etc. So much so that a fall of the American empire would also lead to the instant collapse of the European Union. Donald Trump has directly threatened European countries with “major retaliation” in the event of a forced sale of US debt...

Finally, in 2026, the world remains on the brink of a major economic and financial crisis that continues to loom large. This could be triggered by any number of events, including a crash in Japan (the second-largest holder of US debt), the bursting of the artificial intelligence bubble in the United States, or a private or public debt crisis (global debt currently stands at $346 trillion). All these phenomena are driving the gold price to new heights. The record appeal of gold can also be explained by the historic turning point we are currently experiencing, as well as the end of globalization as we have known it, the desire for sovereignty among states and individuals, and, of course, continued purchases by central banks seeking to protect themselves with a safe haven asset. Gold is thus resuming its role, and there is no indication that this trend will reverse. The coming year will therefore be a continuation of the years we have been experiencing since the health crisis, marking a complete break with the past, hence the proliferation of crises, which are simply periods when the natural order of things prevails.

But now, faced with the risk of collapse, the time has come more than ever to put a new financial system in place. First, part of the global debt, especially in the poorest countries, must be canceled to free up their room for maneuver and allow them to regain their sovereignty. Next, currency, which is currently created exclusively through debt everywhere in the world, must be freed from this process and created in limited quantities to preserve its social function and connect individuals. Being at the heart of human exchanges, it has always had a power of pacification that nothing else can match at this level. This is because the issuance of money makes it possible to abolish violence, unlike the issuance of debt, which only postpones it or shifts it to the external environment. Finally, the establishment of a melting currency, as proposed to US President Roosevelt in the last century (in a period similar to the present), remains a revolutionary solution, both to avoid the risk of a major financial crisis and to prepare for the coming decades in a more just and balanced order.