Debt

When the bond market, and in particular that of US sovereign bonds, becomes unstable or loses investor confidence, it's not just bad news for financial portfolios: it's a crack in the very foundations of the global financial architecture.

In case of a loss of confidence in the sustainability of the US budget, physical gold, already considered a safe-haven asset, could emerge as the ultimate systemic safe-haven, outperforming all other asset classes in times of global monetary disorder.

With Donald Trump’s inauguration, uncertainty in international politics, geopolitical dynamics and the financial markets has increased significantly. It remains to be seen how long this phase. What is certain is that gold is benefiting from the increased uncertainty.

As debates rage in the US over the future trajectory of the economy and markets, the continuing rise in the budget deficit remains a major source of concern. It is precisely this worrying trajectory of public debt that gold seems to continue to follow closely, helping to explain its current surge.

While Spain, Portugal and Italy are pulling out of their massive public deficits — Italy's public deficit has been cut from 8% of GDP in 2022 to 3.4% in 2024 — France continues to sink and is now Europe's sick man.

Donald Trump's recent change of tone on tariffs, like his unexpected softening towards Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, highlights an often overlooked reality: the real balance of power isn't played out on the political stage, but in the workings of the US debt market.

U.S. Treasuries, supposed to be the ultimate refuge in times of crisis, appear to have been swept away by the market swell, while gold remains afloat.

Many investors have not bought gold recently as they have been waiting for a correction. But we have told investors that gold is very unlikely to pause at this level. Instead, once properly past $3,000, we are likely to see an acceleration.

With unprecedented levels of debt and rising interest rates undermining bond markets, confidence in sovereign debt is eroding. In the face of this systemic risk, gold is once again the safe-haven asset par excellence.

Over the past two decades, central bank reserves have undergone profound changes as ideologies have been renewed. De-dollarization is gradually establishing itself as a marker of the decline of the United States, while sovereign assets occupy a growing place, symbolizing the transition to a new w...