Debt

With the US government shutdown, “fiscal QE” came to an abrupt halt. It comes at a time when the US Treasury has become the central player in providing liquidity to the system. The longer the situation drags on, the more the pipeline seizes up – and the greater the likelihood of an accident.

Fitch's downgrade of France's debt rating last Friday was expected. It remains to be seen whether Moody's and Standard & Poor's will follow suit on October 24 and November 28, which seems quite likely.

To function, a gold standard would require a far higher price than today. Will Donald Trump, willingly or not, help China and Russia rebuild the international monetary system? The answer could come within weeks — or months at most.

The situation in the US labor market now highlights its profound fragility, after two years of embellished statistics. In September, the Bureau of Labor Statistics made the largest negative revision in the history of payrolls.

France is going through a critical period in its history. The country's democratic and political crisis is now compounded by the possibility of a financial crisis.

Mitch Vexler, a real estate developer turned whistleblower, detailed what he considers to be a ticking time bomb at the heart of the US financial system: the way property taxes fuel public school funding and school bonds.

On September 8, the French government will face a decisive confidence vote. The risk is clear: if the government fails and the general strike brings the country to a standstill, France could plunge into a systemic bond and banking crisis within a matter of days, with no credible political support...

We are at a turning point. Markets are behaving as if the liquidity party could last forever, even though the hidden reserve that supported it has disappeared. And it is precisely this kind of configuration that paves the way for the most brutal reversals.

European public funds are pouring into Italy and Spain and largely explain their GDP growth. In France, it is based on spiraling public debt, while in Germany activity is stagnating, held back by soaring energy costs and the loss of its traditional markets.

The obvious loss of effectiveness of the Bank of Japan's interventions is reflected in the immediate reaction of assets deemed to be barometers of confidence, foremost among them gold in local currency.