Debt

We are at a turning point. Markets are behaving as if the liquidity party could last forever, even though the hidden reserve that supported it has disappeared. And it is precisely this kind of configuration that paves the way for the most brutal reversals.

European public funds are pouring into Italy and Spain and largely explain their GDP growth. In France, it is based on spiraling public debt, while in Germany activity is stagnating, held back by soaring energy costs and the loss of its traditional markets.

The obvious loss of effectiveness of the Bank of Japan's interventions is reflected in the immediate reaction of assets deemed to be barometers of confidence, foremost among them gold in local currency.

Debt is in bad shape, especially its premium component, US Federal debt, due to Trump's budget deficit, which is becoming increasingly difficult to finance. We are witnessing the beginnings of a flight from the bond market towards assets which have intrinsic value: gold.

Japan is said to have agreed, in return for tariff cuts, to use part of its sovereign wealth funds to finance US strategic projects. Confidence is crumbling. Gold is becoming the last credible refuge for Japanese households and institutions.

The BRICS have placed at the heart of their arguments the urgency of sovereignty for all nations, the end of globalization as we know it, and an ideological change in the face of the civilizational crisis that the West is undergoing. From an old world based on excessive financialization and limit...

Government bonds are no longer perceived as risk-free assets, and their long-term growth potential is now in doubt. In this context, accelerating the pace of debt emissions becomes a real challenge. If the Fed were in turn to intervene in very short maturities to artificially support Treasury emi...

The U.S. economy is showing much deeper signs of fragility than the markets seem to comprehend. Suffocated by soaring prices, American consumers are forced to resort to credit on a massive scale. The next inevitable step will be an economic slowdown. Gold continues to play a strategic role in an...

The financial world may be on the verge of a regime change. Financial repression, thought to have been relegated to the past, is making a discreet comeback through the Japanese door. The Tokyo authorities are already trying to manipulate the yield curve by adjusting the supply of debt, hoping to...

The year 2025 is likely to be the year of crisis: the United States must refinance $9 trillion in debt — a quarter of its total outstanding — while financing an annual budget deficit of $1.9 trillion. A veritable debt wall. And then there's Japan, France, and so on. Will there be sufficient deman...