Banks

A wind of change is blowing for gold. Two weeks ago, precious metals prices were falling whereas yields on U.S Treasury bonds were rising. This week, sales of bonds continue but gold stopped its fall and started a rebound.

So far, only the ECB has intervened in the markets, but other central banks could follow suit. This week, the Fed will announce its decision on the monetary policy. And we cannot exclude that the American central bank will also signal a more dovish stance to calm the turmoil in the bond markets and prevent further increases in the interest rates. One thing is certain: gold needs some fresh dovish hints from the Fed to go up.

At present, gold in any case is continuing its correction in this context of rising interest rates. Disengagement on gold ETFS funds continued last week after a record 12 consecutive days of decrease. The last liquidation of these ETFS that was so intense goes back to the correction of December 2016. Opinions about gold have never been this low in the past 5 years, with the Gold OPTIX index measuring investor optimism on the precious metal security has gone back below autumn 2019.

The 2019-2021 gold chart is disturbingly similar to that of 2010-2012, but it does not have to be the harbinger of a bear market.

More gold is traded daily in London than is produced through mining in a year. It is estimated that nearly 95% of that gold traded daily in London is unallocated paper gold. Similar figures exist in the COMEX in New York, and around 1% ever insisting on delivery. We can easily deduce from these figures a rough percentage of how many are unallocated naked shorts, and it’s a big figure.

The whole American economy in 2020 has been an illusion because the whole system is bankrupt.

With pressures on stocks and bonds, the precious metals are falling in sympathy as often is the case at the beginning of falling markets. I have been stating for 20 years, that fundamentally gold and silver are in a very strong uptrend, supported totally by central bank’s destruction of paper money. Within major uptrends, there are always corrections and some are vicious.

The macro stage is set. The genie is out of the bottle. The list of macro, fundamental and technical reasons to be long precious metals today is extensive. It is more than just a “short squeeze” in silver.

Since last year, the Comex has become a physical gold delivery hub, which was not in the plans when this derivatives market was set up. The quantity of gold delivered to Comex over the last year will soon account for the market's remaining stocks.

When a world already in trouble was hit by a severe financial crisis in September 2019, the dose of debt was already excessive. But as the Fed and the ECB opened the money spigots fully, they filled the world with poisoned or fake money. The BY team (Biden & Yellen) will now be certain to finish this process with their profligate spending plans.