Banks

Far removed from the turmoil of the bond markets, gold continues to move ahead without the slightest speculative excess, and in a climate of general indifference.The price of gold in yens is now rising exponentially, just as it would against any currency of a country in a sovereign crisis.

Escalating geopolitical tensions and the risk of aggravation in the context of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict are adding new challenges to a fragmented world. The international economic and financial system can only emerge from this situation weaker, as inflation persists and growth remains weak....

This week we will look at the performance of gold compared to the United States financial sector. When this relationship is rising, it can be said that investors are showing a preference for hard money. When it is falling, investors are showing more confidence in the paper money system.

The relationship between gold and real rates broke down when real rates turned positive again. What counts now is the search for solvency, not the search for yield. The return of investment takes precedence over return on investment.

The reshaping of the world economy and the global order is in full swing. There are powerful factors, such as the shift in economic, demographic and military weight, that are driving the readjustment in the (geo)political arena. And this readjustment is also reflected in the change in gold flows.

The rise in interest rates initiated by the Fed has had a devastating effect on bonds, which were massively purchased by banks, insurers and pension funds when rates were low. The question is whether this fragility in the banking and insurance sector is likely to trigger a credit crunch.

Inflation seems to be picking up again in the United States. In addition to the geopolitical situation, there is also likely to be a great deal of unrest on the US debt front.

As central banks continue their headlong rush to the top, they are faced with a Cornelian dilemma: bring inflation down to 2% at the risk of triggering an unprecedented economic and financial crisis, or allow prices to rise, which would call into question their mandate and lead to social upheaval.

The price of gold falls in London while it rises in China. The divergence reported in my last article continues this week. The Chinese gold and precious metals market seems to be following its own trajectory.

30-year Treasury bonds have fallen by more than 50%. Losses are starting to mount again, and this is worrying many observers. Although the US is not exposed to the risk of default, this decline reflects the effects of tighter monetary policy.