Central banks

We now have two dangerous wars, maybe we will have a global war. We have a coming collapse of stock markets and debt markets and a banking system which probably will not survive in its present form.

The rise in interest rates initiated by the Fed has had a devastating effect on bonds, which were massively purchased by banks, insurers and pension funds when rates were low. The question is whether this fragility in the banking and insurance sector is likely to trigger a credit crunch.

Inflation seems to be picking up again in the United States. In addition to the geopolitical situation, there is also likely to be a great deal of unrest on the US debt front.

Fifty years to the day after the Yom Kippur War, the Hamas terrorist attack on Israel stunned the world with its brutality and suddenness. It was anticipated that this war would last longer than the previous one (less than twenty days, from October 6 to 25, 1973), with the threat of global reperc...

The current bond crash is historic. The EDV ETF, which measures the price of very long-dated US Treasuries, has fallen by 58% in just over a year. The bond market's current fall is now greater than that recorded by the equity market during the last financial crisis in 2008 (-56%).

As central banks continue their headlong rush to the top, they are faced with a Cornelian dilemma: bring inflation down to 2% at the risk of triggering an unprecedented economic and financial crisis, or allow prices to rise, which would call into question their mandate and lead to social upheaval.

The price of gold falls in London while it rises in China. The divergence reported in my last article continues this week. The Chinese gold and precious metals market seems to be following its own trajectory.

The ECB has just raised its deposit rate to 4% and halted its sovereign debt repurchases, with the stated aim of stamping out inflation. Unfortunately, this will probably have little effect, as oil prices are slowly but surely climbing.

30-year Treasury bonds have fallen by more than 50%. Losses are starting to mount again, and this is worrying many observers. Although the US is not exposed to the risk of default, this decline reflects the effects of tighter monetary policy.

IMF data shows gold reserves at the Central Bank of Russia rose by 3 tonnes (≈ 100,000 oz) in August. This means that its gold reserves are back to where they were at the start of the year - 2,333 tonnes.