Financial crisis

With many political elections due to take place in 2024, the economic and financial outlook is likely to tip the balance for better or worse.

Egon von Greyerz and Matthew Piepenburg take a sober look ahead at a macro environment riddled with undeniable event-risk—from geopolitics and asset bubbles to debased currencies and distrusted global leadership.

We may well see a debt refinancing crisis, and anticipating how we might overcome this impasse is difficult, given the uncertainty surrounding the potential intervention of central banks in the face of this debt wall.

It's time to put a stop to this belief, oversold by certain bankers and financial magazines: No, stocks are not the best long-term investment.

Visibility on the fundamentals of the gold price remains as good as ever. It is therefore timely for us to present and detail our outlook for 2024. Gold's performance in 2024 will be influenced by 4 major factors.

As my last report for 2023, I wanted to hit the big issues blunt in the face—from debt and sovereign bond markets to themes on the USD, inflation, risk markets and physical gold.

The rejuvenation of gold buyers in China is explained by the slowdown in the property market, the weakness of equities and the currency, as well as low bank interest rates. Young Chinese, concerned about economic stagnation, are turning to gold as a financial refuge.

In a recessionary environment, gold has a history of statistically outperforming other assets, and could prove to be a rather interesting choice in this context.

The economic situation in Germany is deteriorating at an alarming rate. French economic indicators are showing a deterioration, characterized by a sharp contraction in activity in the last quarter. Gold in euros seems to be taking advantage of this situation.

The price of gold beats its record, both in dollars and euros. Bitcoin climbs, but remains far from its 2021 high. At the same time, the stock market is making some headway, and housing is more or less depressed across the globe. Something is going on. Aside from cyclical explanations (a slowdown...