Offer & Supply

As we start a new trading year, gold and silver are both presenting long term set-ups that may well propel price to much higher levels over the coming years.

Visibility on the fundamentals of the gold price remains as good as ever. It is therefore timely for us to present and detail our outlook for 2024. Gold's performance in 2024 will be influenced by 4 major factors.

The price of gold ends 2023 with a new record closing price. The yellow metal was one of the best-performing assets, up +16% for the year as a whole. The S&P 500 index did slightly better, but gold outperformed European equity markets.

As my last report for 2023, I wanted to hit the big issues blunt in the face—from debt and sovereign bond markets to themes on the USD, inflation, risk markets and physical gold.

The rejuvenation of gold buyers in China is explained by the slowdown in the property market, the weakness of equities and the currency, as well as low bank interest rates. Young Chinese, concerned about economic stagnation, are turning to gold as a financial refuge.

Real estate prices in France are falling, but have we seen the last of expensive housing? Far from it! Price distortion has reached a level that will take a long time to resolve. And this rise in property prices is a global phenomenon.

In a recessionary environment, gold has a history of statistically outperforming other assets, and could prove to be a rather interesting choice in this context.

This week we'll look at the fascinating 100-year chart of the United States Inflation Rate as well as long-term charts of inflation-sensitive Silver and Oil to see if we can find clues about where inflation could be headed next.

The economic situation in Germany is deteriorating at an alarming rate. French economic indicators are showing a deterioration, characterized by a sharp contraction in activity in the last quarter. Gold in euros seems to be taking advantage of this situation.

The price of gold beats its record, both in dollars and euros. Bitcoin climbs, but remains far from its 2021 high. At the same time, the stock market is making some headway, and housing is more or less depressed across the globe. Something is going on. Aside from cyclical explanations (a slowdown...