Gold Makes New All Time High, But This Is Just The Beginning

This week, Gold set a new daily high in US Dollars just shy of $2,150. For those who have been holding the yellow metal for long, now might seem like an opportune time to sell - especially if you held through the brutal cyclical bear market from 2011-2016. However, I'd like to show you evidence that the recent move in Gold may well be just the start of something much bigger!

The first chart of Gold shows its price movement going back to around the time it started trading freely in 1971. There have been three times when Gold has surpassed its historic high on a quarterly closing basis. The first time was in the early-1970s and led to a 348% impulse move higher. The next break of a historic high came later that decade, leading to another 342% bull market blowoff run. Following the mania of the 1970s, it wasn't until the year 2009 when Gold finally managed to top its historic high. That time, a 116% impulse move occurred.

If we get a convincing quarterly close later this month above the old historic high of $1920, it will mark the second consecutive quarterly closing above that old high. This would provide compelling evidence that we can expect a 4th historic impulsive move higher from here. Based on historical precedent, it would not be unreasonable to expect Gold to rise to anywhere from $4,200 to $8,600!

Looking at the technical picture, we can see if there is a set-up that might justify such a move higher. Indeed, there is! If we look at the recent move to an All Time High as a continuation of the secular bull market that began in 2001, we can see the downturn that began in 2011 as a possible Bull Halfway Flag consolidation that Gold is attempting to break out of. The measured move from a halfway flag would target around $7,800. When measured from the old historic high set in 2011, that would be a 311%. As we just saw, such a move falls well within historic precedent.

Hold your Gold. Things are about to get interesting!