Central banks

Inflation takes off at around 4% in Japan, a significant level for a country which, apart from the 2014 surge, has generally recorded inflation rates close to zero, or even negative, since the turn of the century.

The total mismanagement of the US financial system has led to the dollar losing 98% of it’s value since Nixon closed the gold window in 1971. Most other currencies have followed the dollar down at varying speeds.

Gold prices anticipate the shift in the investment cycle from growth stocks to tangible assets. The yellow metal also benefits from its safe-haven status in a context of economic uncertainty.

With many political elections due to take place in 2024, the economic and financial outlook is likely to tip the balance for better or worse.

Egon von Greyerz and Matthew Piepenburg take a sober look ahead at a macro environment riddled with undeniable event-risk—from geopolitics and asset bubbles to debased currencies and distrusted global leadership.

Central bank purchases in November 2023 continued to be dominated by banks who have been regular buyers so far this year. Major buyers were all from emerging markets. The Central Bank of Turkey added the most gold during the month (25t), followed by the National Bank of Poland and the People’s Ba...

We may well see a debt refinancing crisis, and anticipating how we might overcome this impasse is difficult, given the uncertainty surrounding the potential intervention of central banks in the face of this debt wall.

Visibility on the fundamentals of the gold price remains as good as ever. It is therefore timely for us to present and detail our outlook for 2024. Gold's performance in 2024 will be influenced by 4 major factors.

The price of gold ends 2023 with a new record closing price. The yellow metal was one of the best-performing assets, up +16% for the year as a whole. The S&P 500 index did slightly better, but gold outperformed European equity markets.

As my last report for 2023, I wanted to hit the big issues blunt in the face—from debt and sovereign bond markets to themes on the USD, inflation, risk markets and physical gold.