Financial crisis

This week we will look at the performance of gold compared to the United States financial sector. When this relationship is rising, it can be said that investors are showing a preference for hard money. When it is falling, investors are showing more confidence in the paper money system.

The relationship between gold and real rates broke down when real rates turned positive again. What counts now is the search for solvency, not the search for yield. The return of investment takes precedence over return on investment.

We now have two dangerous wars, maybe we will have a global war. We have a coming collapse of stock markets and debt markets and a banking system which probably will not survive in its present form.

The rise in interest rates initiated by the Fed has had a devastating effect on bonds, which were massively purchased by banks, insurers and pension funds when rates were low. The question is whether this fragility in the banking and insurance sector is likely to trigger a credit crunch.

Inflation seems to be picking up again in the United States. In addition to the geopolitical situation, there is also likely to be a great deal of unrest on the US debt front.

The current bond crash is historic. The EDV ETF, which measures the price of very long-dated US Treasuries, has fallen by 58% in just over a year. The bond market's current fall is now greater than that recorded by the equity market during the last financial crisis in 2008 (-56%).

As central banks continue their headlong rush to the top, they are faced with a Cornelian dilemma: bring inflation down to 2% at the risk of triggering an unprecedented economic and financial crisis, or allow prices to rise, which would call into question their mandate and lead to social upheaval.

The ECB has just raised its deposit rate to 4% and halted its sovereign debt repurchases, with the stated aim of stamping out inflation. Unfortunately, this will probably have little effect, as oil prices are slowly but surely climbing.

Some people know the story of the Gold Rush from the Charlie Chaplin film, others from TV shows or books of all kinds. At the very least, historians consider this period to be one of the most significant of the 19th century. Both fascinating and structuring, it is particularly revealing of American...

Precious metal prices, particularly silver, are closely linked to energy prices. Bank demand for gold looks set to be extremely strong in the final quarter of 2023, especially as the banking crisis is likely to spread internationally, as it did in 2008.