Even though Ole Hansen states right at the beginning of the interview that he cannot say with certainty whether we really are seeing a commodities supercycle, he observes a developing imbalance between supply and demand, which could have a positive effect on price direction in the future. Since many institutional investors increasingly take into account ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) criteria in their asset allocation, there is now a lack of investment funds in certain sectors of the commodity markets and in the mining space in general, while at the same time large quantities of raw materials are required for the switch to renewable energies. This could drive prices up in the long term, says Hansen. In addition, parts of the sector are still undervalued compared to other assets such as stocks.
According to Hansen, the rising inflation rates also favor of a continued upward trend in commodities. He expects inflation to remain high, while economic growth could decline. For the financial markets in general this is “not a good cocktail”, but commodities could benefit.
Ole Hansen agrees with Friedrich that gold, which has been in a corrective phase since its new all-time high in August 2020, is currently undervalued. However, he added that gold is the commodity whose price depends most on interest rates and the movements of the US dollar and has therefore not made any progress recently. In his opinion, a weaker dollar would be necessary for a new uptrend in the gold market, as well as real interest rate levels remaining below zero.
Hansen believes that a return to the gold price level of about $ 2 000 per ounce is realistic. Central bank purchases, which increased again in the second quarter, could provide additional fundamental support for the precious metals. Especially silver could benefit from a new upswing, as its price is not only determined by macro factors such as inflation and interest rates but also by industrial demand, e. g. the increasing demand for solar panels. In addition, silver is still a long way from its all-time high of 2011. When asked which raw material he would choose if he could only invest in one, Hansen replies: "Probably silver."
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