Inflation

From a market perspective, there was one important lesson from both 1940s and 1970s periods: At times when investable assets yield less than inflation, owning tangible assets becomes imperative. Commodities were far-and-away the best performing asset class in both of those decades.

Some of the brightest minds in finance, Grant Williams, Egon von Greyerz, and Ronnie Stoeferle discuss fiscal policy, the "crack-up boom," inflation, liquidity, and of course gold and silver in these highlights from a recent discussion.

Gold is an increasingly important asset for European pension funds, with new research showing many funds intend to increase their holdings of the yellow metal in the coming months.

The current high inflation could theoretically transform into hyperinflation, disinflation, stagflation, or deflation. What does each mean for gold?

The sales of futures on the COMEX market, now seen almost every day, are colliding with a background trend for the purchasing of gold by the other central banks, which are starting to lose patience and want to cover themselves in relation to the risks of devaluation of their assets in terms of state bonds and currencies, which are significantly impacted by the current levels of inflation.

The real interest rates should remain low, so gold prices shouldn’t drop like a stone. Actually, in the longer run, when inflation creates some economic problems while the economic growth slows down, the yellow metal could finally benefit from the stagflationary conditions.

Like many fixed-income securities, the gold prices are completely detached from supply and demand. The mechanism for determining prices is distorted by ‘tools’ that enable the monetary authorities to alter the perception of their inflationary monetary policies.

As sympathetic as the Wall Street Silver movement is and as effective as it is in drying up the retail supply chain, it is the Basel III rules that will revolutionize the silver wholesale market and the global demand for photovoltaics, which is going to push prices upward at the end of 2021 and more so next year

With the foregoing risks at play, the best tactics for the current economic pitch involve longer-term preparation, a respect for historical lessons and a fundamental recognition that further and inevitable monetary and fiscal expansion can only mean further currency debasement and hence the longer-term re-pricing (i.e., rise) in gold valuation.

It seems that gold is reacting now more to the decrease in the bond yields rather than to the changes in the US or EU monetary policies. As long as the interest rates are declining, gold is catching its breath. But this decrease may be temporary, so better watch out! Powell’s testimonies to Congress next week could provide us with more clues about gold’s outlook.