Mining

From a market perspective, there was one important lesson from both 1940s and 1970s periods: At times when investable assets yield less than inflation, owning tangible assets becomes imperative. Commodities were far-and-away the best performing asset class in both of those decades.

The sales of futures on the COMEX market, now seen almost every day, are colliding with a background trend for the purchasing of gold by the other central banks, which are starting to lose patience and want to cover themselves in relation to the risks of devaluation of their assets in terms of state bonds and currencies, which are significantly impacted by the current levels of inflation.

In the short term, the paper gold market certainly harms the only genuine gold market which is physical. But artificial markets or instruments have never survived in history. Just look at the fact that every fiat currency in history which has failed. And so will paper gold. It is only a matter of time.

In the last few weeks, gold has not followed the curve of the rates and there is now a decorrelation between the 10-year rates and the gold price. Since 2009, the two indices have been following one another fairly closely, and the latest gaps between the curves of these two indices have always been sealed at a short maturity in the past. The last time the rates were at this level, with a dollar as weak as this, gold was at around $1950, meaning that there is fairly sizeable potential for a further rise for gold if this catching up were to take place.

The economic actors’ confidence regarding the central banks’ ability to correct this inflation, which they deem to be transitory, is certainly not open to question today. However, without rapid and specific action by these central banks (particularly on interest rates), this patience, which is also transitory, is at risk of wearing thin. The barometer of this confidence is gold.

Marc Friedrich interviews silver expert Keith Neumeyer, who has founded several silver companies and has been in the mining industry for decades. Now he foresees the biggest bull market in precious metals history and expects a three-digit silver price within the next few years.

What was it that caused the sheer scale of this fall? Did the Fed raise interest rates brusquely and sharply, leading to a reaction like this on gold? The conclusions of the Fed’s meeting last week are far from dramatic, though. Nonetheless, they had the effect of an electric shock.

The intervention by the central banks on the markets is scrambling the message. Assets that have become at risk, in this inflationary backdrop, are being given excessive valuations. By contrast, the values that protect against the upcoming inflation are still being evaluated at very low levels. At any event, this is a very favorable backdrop for assets like gold.

The “match” between the two camps (the inflationists versus those who are convinced of the transitory impact of the rise in prices) is leading, as one would logically expect, to this very volatile phase on the gold and silver metals markets.

The price of gold rose above $1900 at the start of the week and has since stabilized around this level. It is the first time this important threshold has been reached since last January. In terms of the monthly charts, gold is in a confirmed breakout of its consolidation “flag” which will have lasted 9 months.