As it does at the start of every year, Saxo Bank has unveiled its “Outrageous Predictions.” The aim is not so much to gaze into a crystal ball as to provoke thought, challenge assumptions, and surprise. Whether you agree with them or not, they make for interesting reading. At a time when economists too often take refuge in cautious projections that simply extend past trends in inflation or growth, these disruptive scenarios have the merit of taking us out of traditional macro models.
The eight “outrageous” predictions for 2026 are no exception to the rule. One of my favorites imagines the appointment of an AI to head a large American company—a scenario that seems, at this stage, almost plausible. The first of these predictions announces that the operational quantum computer will be developed faster than expected, as early as 2026. Such an advance would make all older bitcoin addresses vulnerable, leading to a catastrophic crash in the crypto market. Many security systems, particularly banking systems, would also be brought to their knees. In this environment, “Gold rockets toward USD 10,000 as the ultimate “no-password” asset.” That would be the bare minimum in such a cataclysm.
But the prediction that interests us here is the seventh: “Dollar dominance challenged by Beijing’s golden yuan.” It opens with a real bombshell: "China surprises the world by announcing audited gold holdings far larger than previously disclosed — enough to surpass U.S. official reserves." I had already mentioned this possibility ten years ago (Gold reserves and GDP: China is Playing Liar's Poker), convinced that Beijing was deliberately underestimating the actual amount of its gold reserves. More and more economists and analysts believe that these reserves have long exceeded those of Fort Knox.
Following this announcement, Beijing would launch an offshore yuan indexed to gold, tradable only on the Hong Kong and Singapore markets, while the domestic yuan—the one used by Chinese households and businesses—would remain strictly controlled.
This “golden yuan,” as Saxo calls it, would be “supplemented with other reserve assets – US bonds and commodities – to smooth volatility.” It would thus become a trusted currency for trade and reserves, competing directly with the dollar. Saxo concludes: "The 'golden yuan' becomes a durable second global anchor, not replacing the dollar, but ending its monopoly."
It would be a masterstroke by Beijing: a masterful offensive against the almighty dollar, an affirmation of Chinese sovereignty and power. Before invading Taiwan? This gold-backed yuan would be an appropriate response to US sanctions, allowing trade to continue outside the dollar system.
Saxo does not mention this scenario, but everyone has been thinking about it for a long time. To be honest, it is no longer really an “outrageous” prediction.
The “golden yuan” seems to us to be a perfectly credible scenario, in 2026 or later. And let's keep this in mind: accumulating gold as China is doing makes no sense if the true amount of its reserves is never revealed. Sooner or later, Beijing will reveal the truth, and it will be explosive.
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