In just a few days, the global geopolitical and economic situation has suddenly become tense. The attack by the United States and Israel on Iran on February 28 caused a sharp rise in oil prices and reignited fears of inflation. Shortly after hostilities broke out, Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a quarter of the world's oil passes.

As a result, the price per barrel briefly exceeded $100, a 50% increase from its pre-conflict level.

We are familiar with oil crises: they are usually accompanied by inflation and recession. But in this case, the particular context of the conflict amplifies the threats. Natural gas, particularly LNG, is also affected by the halt in maritime traffic: its price is soaring and the risk of shortages can no longer be ruled out. Geopolitically, it is mainly China that depends on Iranian oil. Beijing has already banned certain fuel exports, a clear sign of the ongoing tensions.

Another serious consequence is that around a third of global fertilizer traffic passes through the Strait of Hormuz. A rise in fertilizer prices, combined with higher fuel costs, could lead to inflation in agricultural commodities. We remember that soaring food prices were one of the factors that triggered the “Arab Spring” (2010-2012), with its accompanying unrest, civil wars, and regime changes... that's all we need.

An economic crisis is not yet certain; much will depend on how long the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. On this point, the interests of the belligerents are diametrically opposed: the Iranian mullah regime could be tempted to prolong the conflict, sheltered in its underground bunkers, in the hope that a deterioration in the global economic situation will eventually force Donald Trump to back down, with the midterm elections (renewal of Congress and one-third of the Senate) looming on November 3. For their part, the United States and Israel are talking about the possibility of a quick war. But a real victory would require regime change in Iran — a particularly difficult goal to achieve.

Uncertainty reigns, as evidenced by the erratic evolution of oil prices: the price per barrel has fallen back to around $80 after briefly exceeding $100.

As if this war were not enough, a serious warning also came from the US financial system: on March 6, BlackRock limited withdrawals from one of its funds. The world's leading asset manager told its clients, “No, you can withdraw this amount, but no more.” This type of decision is reminiscent of a notable precedent: the subprime crisis began in a similar way when BNP Paribas froze three funds invested in US real estate loans on August 9, 2007.

We are talking about a market worth nearly $1.8 trillion, that of private credit, which has tripled in size in recent years. How can such expansion be explained? In the wake of the subprime mortgage crisis, tighter banking regulations have pushed some corporate credit elsewhere, to less regulated, more welcoming, and more responsive funds. The current trigger is not the war in Iran, but... AI. A large proportion of these loans (around 25%) are to software companies that have been hit hard by the artificial intelligence revolution, which is capable of performing certain tasks as well as, if not better than, humans, at a significantly lower cost.

SaaS companies (Software as a Service, offered on a subscription basis) have already recently plummeted on the stock market; this is the second wave. More broadly, AI is part of a process of “creative destruction.” For now, however, we are mainly seeing the destruction — as well as the colossal costs required to operate it: chips, server infrastructure, and electricity consumption.

In short, a sudden economic crisis could occur. The coming weeks will be crucial: between tensions in the Middle East and the upheavals caused by AI, there is no shortage of fears. Uncertainty is growing rapidly and significant market movements are to be expected.

Let's end with a little historical reminder:

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Financial crisis Financial markets Inflation