Inflation

The price moves in the coming months and year are likely to be spectacular. The combination of technical and fundamental factors can easily drive gold well above $3,000 and silver to new highs above $50.

The price of gold continues to rise, despite the persistent lack of interest shown by Western investors. The decline in outstandings continued in March, albeit less pronounced than in previous months. Even so, this is the tenth consecutive month of outflows from gold-backed ETFs!

It's still too early to know whether a second wave of inflation will occur, but gold seems to suspect it...

Zimbabwe has replaced its local dollar, which collapsed after less than 5 years in existence, with a new gold-backed currency. This is the latest step taken by President Emmerson Mnangagwa's government to end decades of monetary chaos.

The U.S. Treasury bond-buying program is impacting the markets, with potential implications for the dollar and precious metals, notably gold and silver.

The dual situation of the Bank of Japan stalemate - whose credibility is currently being tested by the markets - and the ongoing currency war are clearly benefiting gold.

A gloomy outlook: inflation is set to remain persistently high in Europe. We've been saying this for a long time. A Natixis study supports this view and identifies several factors (which we re-rank in order of importance) driving up prices in the long term.

Gold is attracting growing interest in an international environment marked by multiple challenges and a climate of permanent uncertainty. Progressive de-globalization and contemporary societal aspirations also accentuate the importance of an independent asset, subject to no authority.

The United States is entering a period of stagflation, a scenario that is enabling gold to set a new all-time record, confirming last week's breakout. Gold always rises during stagflation.

In a January 2024 publication, JP Morgan unveiled its outlook for the gold price. The world's leading bank, with a market capitalization of over $500 billion, stated that “a cutting cycle is expected to be positive for bullion and supportive of a rally in prices in the second half of 2024”.