Gold

The destruction of money is now accelerating in parallel with the deficit and debt expansion. This is the typical course of events for the end game.

The intervention by the central banks on the markets is scrambling the message. Assets that have become at risk, in this inflationary backdrop, are being given excessive valuations. By contrast, the values that protect against the upcoming inflation are still being evaluated at very low levels. At any event, this is a very favorable backdrop for assets like gold.

With the CPI annual inflation rate spiking 5% in May, gold could have gained a lot in response. However, it rallied only $20. Should we prepare for more?

Egon von Greyerz and Matthew Piepenburg address the current and ever-evolving inflation narrative as well as its inter-relationship with interest rates. This relationship has a direct impact upon gold pricing in a global backdrop of rising and unsustainable debt levels.

French President Macron told a news conference he would like the sale of gold reserves to help finance this planned aid for Africa.

Gold’s future depends on the Fed’s reaction to rising inflation, or whether or not investors will focus on nominal and real interest rates. If the US central bank stays behind the inflation curve, real interest rates will stay in the negative territory, supporting the price of gold.

The “match” between the two camps (the inflationists versus those who are convinced of the transitory impact of the rise in prices) is leading, as one would logically expect, to this very volatile phase on the gold and silver metals markets.

The implementation of the Basel III standards on the Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR), in particular on allocated or unallocated gold and on its derivative products will cause an earthquake on the market, which should lead to a serious revaluation of the price of ounce of physical gold. As for the gold-paper game, it will no longer interest the banks and will only be addressed to a few professionals looking to hedge a future delivery.

The governments and central banks have crossed a point of no return, meaning that structural reforms to our monetary system are inevitably going to be required. Judging by the previous cycles, said reforms should become a necessity before the next 20 years are out. There is an urgent need to anticipate an overhaul, in the long term, of the international monetary system.

It will take several more months to fully eliminate the slack in the labor market. The implication is clear: precious metals investors shouldn’t bet on a change in the Fed’s stance anytime soon. And as the yellow metal is very sensitive to tapering fears, this is positive news for gold bulls.