Arkadiusz Sieron

Gold rallied thanks to the changed narrative on inflation, and Biden’s infrastructure plan can only add to the inflationary pressure. Huge price moves ahead?

The Wold Gold Council publication is the newest edition of the Gold Market Commentary entitled "Equity yields support gold as investors position for historical September strength". The main thesis of the article is that “August could be the opportune time to position for the historically strong S...

The Fed’s tightening cycle practically always ended up in a recession. Moreover, there were many indicators that the recession would take place in 2020 or 2021 anyway, even without the coronavirus and the Great Lockdown. So, this time won’t be different. Well, actually, it could be different –in...

The latest WGC reports show that institutional allocation to gold will increase. What if there is more to it than just “higher demand, higher price”?

The current high inflation could theoretically transform into hyperinflation, disinflation, stagflation, or deflation. What does each mean for gold?

The real interest rates should remain low, so gold prices shouldn’t drop like a stone. Actually, in the longer run, when inflation creates some economic problems while the economic growth slows down, the yellow metal could finally benefit from the stagflationary conditions.

It seems that gold is reacting now more to the decrease in the bond yields rather than to the changes in the US or EU monetary policies. As long as the interest rates are declining, gold is catching its breath. But this decrease may be temporary, so better watch out! Powell’s testimonies to Congr...

There are several important factors affecting gold prices. Many analysts focus mainly on the US dollar and real interest rates. However, what is sometimes even more important is economic confidence. Of course, the level of economic confidence is partially reflected in the strength of the greenbac...

We will have either more lasting high inflation (but the Fed is slow to admit it), or the Fed doesn’t really want to increase its interest rates substantially. In both cases, gold should benefit, either from higher inflation and lower real interest rates, or from more dovish Fed than it’s current...

With the CPI annual inflation rate spiking 5% in May, gold could have gained a lot in response. However, it rallied only $20. Should we prepare for more?

Gold’s future depends on the Fed’s reaction to rising inflation, or whether or not investors will focus on nominal and real interest rates. If the US central bank stays behind the inflation curve, real interest rates will stay in the negative territory, supporting the price of gold.

It will take several more months to fully eliminate the slack in the labor market. The implication is clear: precious metals investors shouldn’t bet on a change in the Fed’s stance anytime soon. And as the yellow metal is very sensitive to tapering fears, this is positive news for gold bulls.

Biden proposes $6 trillion of government spending in the 2022 fiscal year. This continuation of ultra-loose fiscal policy could support gold in the long run.

The US monetary policy is loose, and real interest rates are still in negative territory. The fiscal policy remains very easy, and the public debt is high. Inflation is huge and rising. And there is also an issue of depreciation of the greenback. The Fed’s easy stance, low interest rates and high...

What’s important here is that the economic environment is more inflationary (we have easier monetary and fiscal policies ) while at the same time the Fed is highly tolerant of high inflation – this is a truly dangerous cocktail, but it could be quite tasty for gold.

Gold recovered after a downward response to the surge in inflation. What’s next for the yellow metal?

Gold has finally broken above the key resistance level. What’s important here is that the breakthrough wasn’t caused by some negative geopolitical or economic shock, but rather by fundamental and sentiment factors.

Biden's plan is fundamentally positive for the yellow metal. After all, he wants to further increase government spending, which will weaken the long-term pace of economic growth and add to the mammoth pile of the public debt.

The Fed left its monetary policy unchanged. However, the lack of any action amid economic recovery is dovish – good news for gold.

The inflationary pressure is likely to remain with us for a while, despite the pundits’ claims that it’s triggered merely by temporary factors. In the 1970s, they were talking the same – until stagflation emerged and gold shined.