Laurent Maurel

The rise in interest rates initiated by the Fed has had a devastating effect on bonds, which were massively purchased by banks, insurers and pension funds when rates were low. The question is whether this fragility in the banking and insurance sector is likely to trigger a credit crunch.

Inflation seems to be picking up again in the United States. In addition to the geopolitical situation, there is also likely to be a great deal of unrest on the US debt front.

The current bond crash is historic. The EDV ETF, which measures the price of very long-dated US Treasuries, has fallen by 58% in just over a year. The bond market's current fall is now greater than that recorded by the equity market during the last financial crisis in 2008 (-56%).

The price of gold falls in London while it rises in China. The divergence reported in my last article continues this week. The Chinese gold and precious metals market seems to be following its own trajectory.

30-year Treasury bonds have fallen by more than 50%. Losses are starting to mount again, and this is worrying many observers. Although the US is not exposed to the risk of default, this decline reflects the effects of tighter monetary policy.

In the United States, the consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.6% in August and by 3.7% year-on-year. This is an acceleration on the 0.2% monthly increase and 3.2% annual gain published in July. The year-on-year increase is higher than the economists' forecasts. In other words, August's CPI excee...

Gold is testing all-time highs in many currencies. Gold in yen is achieving this performance at a time when the Japanese bond market is going through an unprecedented crisis of confidence.

On July 27, figures released by the US administration showed GDP up by 2.4%, well above the 2% anticipated by analysts. The U.S. economy seemed to be resisting the sharp rise in interest rates better than expected. But the administration published a terse correction: the increase in GDP was not 2...

With the recent rise in interest rates, demand for credit is collapsing in many sectors of the economy.

US fiscal policy is incompatible with current monetary policy, whose primary objective is to bring down inflation. This incompatibility between fiscal and monetary policy is also the reason for gold's resilience, despite the recent explosion in interest rates and the dollar's rise against the yen.

Against an already tense liquidity backdrop, a new banking stress story emerged this week. The threat of a credit event is likely to support the gold physical demand in the short term.

In the United States, public finances continue to deteriorate. Faced with a weak currency, Japan's central bank is forced to let rates rise. The price of gold in yen broke an all-time record, amid complete media indifference.

The price of gold has rallied in recent days. Not only is the battle against inflation far from won, but the risk of a monetary policy error is also increasing.

Since the introduction of measures enabling banks not to bear bond losses on their balance sheets, the markets have not recorded the slightest correction. We have just witnessed six months of spectacular gains. It's as if the Fed had assured the markets that it would not hesitate to intervene at...

Not only does the US government have to cope with higher loan repayments due to rising rates, but it also has to support an economy that has been amputated by a growing number of consumers who no longer have access to credit due to prohibitive rates.

The US economy continues to send very mixed signals. The number of bankruptcies in the US has risen sharply in recent weeks. Gold prices should have fallen further with weakening Chinese demand and the dollar's Olympic form.

When global debt represents three times world GDP, and given the unfair differences in access to debt, emerging countries suddenly seem to realize the difference between debt and currency.

The U.S. debt crisis has been avoided, but the Treasury must urgently issue an avalanche of very short-term bonds to pay its bills. How much money does the U.S. government need? Initial estimates put the colossal figure at $550 billion, to be found immediately, starting this summer.

After ten consecutive rate hikes, the Fed decided to pause its monetary tightening cycle. However, it has announced that two further rate hikes of 25 basis points are expected between now and the end of the year.

While banks are not in the same situation as in 2008, certain sectors of the economy are beginning to feel the adverse effects of higher rates, and could contribute in the very short term to triggering a credit crunch and a drop in consumption.